---
title: "Hardline Case case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Hardline Case ($63.11) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 15 items with odds, observed 75.72% over 165 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hardline-case
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:25Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Hardline Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hardline-case)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Hardline Case

A case on CSGORoll (25%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hardline-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hardline-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hardline-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hardline-case?window=all)

Price · $63.11 · 90.15 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $57.37 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 75.72% · 165 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 25.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 79.48% ±20.63 145 openings

30 days · 75.72% ±19.34 165 openings

since tracking started · 75.72% ±19.34 165 openings

55.5% 78.3% 101.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hardline-case?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hardline-case?window=7d) | 145 | 79.48% ±20.6 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hardline-case) | 165 | 75.72% ±19.3 | −1.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hardline-case?window=all) | 165 | 75.72% ±19.3 | −1.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 165 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,114 1,591 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,068 1,526 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,035 1,478 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $947 1,353 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $566 809 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $507 725 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AUG \| Flame Jörmungandr (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-flame-jormungandr-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $293 418 coins | 5.1% | 3 | 1.7 | 1.82× |
| [P250 \| Whiteout (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-whiteout-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $260 371 coins | 13.6% | 2 | 5.0 | 0.40× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $221 316 coins | 9.6% | 4 | 4.1 | 0.97× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $174 249 coins | 3.0% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.61× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $164 234 coins | 14.1% | 6 | 8.2 | 0.73× |
| [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $158 225 coins | 1.4% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hypnotic-factory-new) | 11.9% | $134 192 coins | 27.8% | 12 | 19.6 | 0.61× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) | 25.0% | $53.33 76.19 coins | 23.2% | 54 | 41.3 | 1.31× |
| [P250 \| Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) | 50.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 83 | 82.5 | 1.01× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=hardline-case)

[P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $63.11 90.15 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 22:11 UTC

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) Hidden $63.11 90.15 coins $53.33 76.19 coins 0.85x 2026-11-09 22:11 UTC

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) Hidden $63.11 90.15 coins $53.33 76.19 coins 0.85x 2026-11-09 22:11 UTC

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) [wonder](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/wonder) $63.11 90.15 coins $53.33 76.19 coins 0.85x 2026-11-09 22:11 UTC

[P250 | Whiteout (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-whiteout-factory-new) Hidden $63.11 90.15 coins $260 371 coins 4.12x 2026-11-09 21:54 UTC

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) Hidden $63.11 90.15 coins $53.33 76.19 coins 0.85x 2026-11-09 21:54 UTC

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) [mathnexo](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/mathnexo) $63.11 90.15 coins $53.33 76.19 coins 0.85x 2026-11-09 21:54 UTC

[P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $63.11 90.15 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 17:24 UTC

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) Hidden $63.11 90.15 coins $53.33 76.19 coins 0.85x 2026-11-09 17:24 UTC

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) Hidden $63.11 90.15 coins $53.33 76.19 coins 0.85x 2026-11-09 17:24 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $63.11 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $63.35 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $64.27 | 90.91% | 15 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 11.9% covert 33.1% epic 0.1% restricted 1.0% mil spec 3.0% extraordinary 1.0% consumer 50.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt