---
title: "Harmony case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Harmony ($11.65) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.89% from 16 items with odds, observed 89.41% over 2,592 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/harmony
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:36Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Harmony](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/harmony)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Harmony

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/harmony?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/harmony?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/harmony) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/harmony?window=all)

Price · $11.65 · 16.65 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.89% · EV $10.59 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.41% · 2,592 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 33.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 83.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 89.57% ±12.44 176 openings

7 days · 88.92% ±3.45 2,336 openings

30 days · 89.41% ±3.27 2,592 openings

since tracking started · 89.41% ±3.27 2,592 openings

76.5% 89.5% 102.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/harmony?window=24h) | 176 | 89.57% ±12.4 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/harmony?window=7d) | 2,336 | 88.92% ±3.45 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/harmony) | 2,592 | 89.41% ±3.27 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/harmony?window=all) | 2,592 | 89.41% ±3.27 | −0.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,592 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $175 250 coins | 1.7% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.77× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Garden (Battle-Scarred) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-garden-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $137 195 coins | 1.3% | 4 | 2.6 | 1.54× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Brocade Flowers (Battle-Scarred) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-brocade-flowers-battle-scarred) | 1 in 625 | $103 147 coins | 1.6% | 5 | 4.1 | 1.21× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Seigaiha (Well-Worn) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-seigaiha-well-worn) | 1 in 417 | $68.43 97.76 coins | 1.6% | 2 | 6.2 | 0.32× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-bad-trip-field-tested) | 1 in 286 | $40.77 58.24 coins | 1.3% | 7 | 9.1 | 0.77× |
| [AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-queens-gambit-battle-scarred) | 1 in 76 | $37.24 53.2 coins | 4.6% | 26 | 34.2 | 0.76× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-fever-dream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 69 | $24.77 35.38 coins | 3.4% | 33 | 37.6 | 0.88× |
| [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Heaven Guard (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-heaven-guard-factory-new) | 1 in 56 | $21.88 31.26 coins | 3.7% | 49 | 46.7 | 1.05× |
| [Souvenir FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-famas-waters-of-nephthys-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $20.73 29.61 coins | 4.9% | 62 | 64.8 | 0.96× |
| [G3SG1 \| Demeter (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-demeter-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $17.05 24.36 coins | 5.2% | 105 | 82.9 | 1.27× |
| [Souvenir XM1014 \| Blue Spruce (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-blue-spruce-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $13.92 19.89 coins | 7.5% | 122 | 147.7 | 0.83× |
| [AUG \| Momentum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $10.65 15.22 coins | 6.3% | 150 | 163.3 | 0.92× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Handgun (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-handgun-factory-new) | 10.5% | $10.50 15 coins | 10.4% | 281 | 272.2 | 1.03× |
| [Sticker \| Happy \| Cologne 2016 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-happy-cologne-2016) | 22.0% | $9.42 13.45 coins | 19.6% | 599 | 570.2 | 1.05× |
| [XM1014 \| Tranquility (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-tranquility-field-tested) | 22.0% | $8.36 11.95 coins | 17.4% | 563 | 570.2 | 0.99× |
| [MAG-7 \| BI83 Spectrum (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-bi83-spectrum-factory-new) | 22.3% | $4.59 6.56 coins | 9.7% | 582 | 577.5 | 1.01× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=harmony)

[MAG-7 | BI83 Spectrum (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-bi83-spectrum-factory-new) Hidden $11.65 16.65 coins $4.59 6.56 coins 0.39x 2026-11-11 15:28 UTC

[Souvenir XM1014 | Blue Spruce (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-blue-spruce-factory-new) Hidden $11.65 16.65 coins $13.92 19.89 coins 1.19x 2026-11-11 15:28 UTC

[Souvenir FAMAS | Waters of Nephthys (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-famas-waters-of-nephthys-battle-scarred) [steffyow;D](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/steffyow%3BD) $11.65 16.65 coins $20.73 29.61 coins 1.78x 2026-11-11 15:28 UTC

[Souvenir XM1014 | Blue Spruce (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-blue-spruce-factory-new) Hidden $11.65 16.65 coins $13.92 19.89 coins 1.19x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC

[StatTrak™ XM1014 | Heaven Guard (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-heaven-guard-factory-new) Hidden $11.65 16.65 coins $21.88 31.26 coins 1.88x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC

[StatTrak™ P2000 | Handgun (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-handgun-factory-new) Hidden $11.65 16.65 coins $10.50 15 coins 0.90x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC

[XM1014 | Tranquility (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-tranquility-field-tested) [Dab](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Dab) $11.65 16.65 coins $8.36 11.95 coins 0.72x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC

[XM1014 | Tranquility (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-tranquility-field-tested) Hidden $11.65 16.65 coins $8.36 11.95 coins 0.72x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC

[XM1014 | Tranquility (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-tranquility-field-tested) Hidden $11.65 16.65 coins $8.36 11.95 coins 0.72x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC

[Sticker | Happy | Cologne 2016 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-happy-cologne-2016) Hidden $11.65 16.65 coins $9.42 13.45 coins 0.81x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:20 UTC | $11.65 | 90.89% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $11.67 | 90.90% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $11.70 | 90.89% | 16 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $11.73 | 90.90% | 16 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $11.75 | 90.92% | 16 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $11.82 | 90.92% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.1% rare 1.8% uncommon 0.4% classified 32.3% restricted 34.6% mil spec 3.2% consumer 5.7% high 22.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.89 on average: an expected loss of $9.11 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt