--- title: "Haystack case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Haystack ($281.94) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 13 items with odds, observed 78.52% over 721 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/haystack rendered: 2026-11-11T12:45Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Haystack](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/haystack) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Haystack A case on CSGORoll (1%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/haystack?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/haystack?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/haystack) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/haystack?window=all) Price · $281.94 · 403 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $256.31 from 13 items Observed RTP, 30d · 78.52% · 721 openings, odds method Variance · 127.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 333 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 49 openings · below min 7 days · 653 openings · below min 30 days · 721 openings · below min since tracking started · 721 openings · below min -0.5% 158.3% 317.0% **Small sample.** 721 openings and 2.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/haystack?window=24h) | 49 | 0.01% ±316.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/haystack?window=7d) | 653 | 49.79% ±86.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/haystack) | 721 | 78.52% ±82.5 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/haystack?window=all) | 721 | 78.52% ±82.5 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 721 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Titan (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 1,000 | $63.7K 90,950 coins | 24.8% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [Sticker \| iBUYPOWER (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 1,000 | $53.5K 76,380 coins | 20.9% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [Sticker \| Reason Gaming (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 1,000 | $38K 54,245 coins | 14.8% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [EMS Katowice 2014 Challengers other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/ems-katowice-2014-challengers) | 1 in 1,000 | $22.4K 32,005 coins | 8.7% | 2 | 0.7 | — | | [Sticker \| Team Dignitas (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-dignitas-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 1,000 | $21.8K 31,155 coins | 8.5% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [Sticker \| Team LDLC.com (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-ldlc-com-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 1,000 | $20.8K 29,650 coins | 8.1% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [Sticker \| Vox Eminor (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 1,000 | $17.6K 25,125 coins | 6.9% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [Sticker \| Natus Vincere (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 1,000 | $10.3K 14,660 coins | 4.0% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [Sticker \| Clan-Mystik (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clan-mystik-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 1,000 | $4,288 6,125 coins | 1.7% | 2 | 0.7 | — | | [Sticker \| LGB eSports (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lgb-esports-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 1,000 | $4,088 5,840 coins | 1.6% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [P250 \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 33.0% | $0.02 0.03 coins | 0.0% | 244 | 237.9 | 1.03× | | [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 33.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 238 | 237.9 | 1.00× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 33.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 232 | 237.9 | 0.98× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $282 403 coins $63.7K 90,950 coins 225.8x 2026-11-04 11:20 UTC [EMS Katowice 2014 Challengers other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/ems-katowice-2014-challengers) Hidden $282 403 coins $22.4K 32,005 coins 79.46x 2026-11-08 21:56 UTC [EMS Katowice 2014 Challengers other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/ems-katowice-2014-challengers) [Falken](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Falken) $282 403 coins $22.4K 32,005 coins 79.46x 2026-11-06 11:03 UTC [Sticker | Team Dignitas (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-dignitas-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $282 403 coins $21.8K 31,155 coins 77.35x 2026-11-07 00:52 UTC [Sticker | Team LDLC.com (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-ldlc-com-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $282 403 coins $20.8K 29,650 coins 73.62x 2026-11-07 04:47 UTC [Sticker | Clan-Mystik (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clan-mystik-holo-katowice-2014) [User#453](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/User%23453) $282 403 coins $4,288 6,125 coins 15.21x 2026-11-07 14:43 UTC [Sticker | Clan-Mystik (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clan-mystik-holo-katowice-2014) [tiltedfish](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/tiltedfish) $282 403 coins $4,288 6,125 coins 15.21x 2026-11-03 07:17 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=haystack) [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $282 403 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:55 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $282 403 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:55 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $282 403 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:55 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $282 403 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:55 UTC [P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) [tiltedfish](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/tiltedfish) $282 403 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:55 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $282 403 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 04:03 UTC [P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $282 403 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 04:03 UTC [P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $282 403 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 04:03 UTC [P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) [sasz](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/sasz) $282 403 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 04:03 UTC [P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $282 403 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 04:01 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $282 | 90.91% | 13 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $282 | 90.91% | 13 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.4% remarkable 0.5% base 0.1% consumer 99.0% best hit $63.7K (225.8x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt