--- title: "Hazard Zone case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Hazard Zone ($4.51) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.92% from 18 items with odds, observed 91.99% over 18.7K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hazard-zone rendered: 2026-11-11T13:11Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Hazard Zone](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hazard-zone) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Hazard Zone A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hazard-zone?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hazard-zone?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hazard-zone) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hazard-zone?window=all) Price · $4.51 · 6.44 coins Advertised RTP · 90.92% · EV $4.10 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.99% · 18.7K openings, odds method Variance · 10.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 29 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 86.1% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 79.35% ±13.90 2,161 openings 7 days · 89.83% ±5.22 15.1K openings 30 days · 91.99% ±4.68 18.7K openings since tracking started · 91.99% ±4.68 18.7K openings 65.0% 81.3% 97.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hazard-zone?window=24h) | 2,161 | 79.35% ±13.9 | −1.6σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hazard-zone?window=7d) | 15.1K | 89.83% ±5.22 | −0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hazard-zone) | 18.7K | 91.99% ±4.68 | +0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hazard-zone?window=all) | 18.7K | 91.99% ±4.68 | +0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 18.7K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir Five-SeveN \| Fall Hazard (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-five-seven-fall-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $167 238 coins | 10.2% | 51 | 46.8 | 1.09× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| CAUTION! (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-caution-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $155 221 coins | 3.8% | 14 | 18.7 | 0.75× | | [Souvenir SG 553 \| Hazard Pay (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sg-553-hazard-pay-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $91.00 130 coins | 15.5% | 127 | 130.9 | 0.97× | | [Galil AR \| CAUTION! (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-caution-factory-new) | 1 in 154 | $67.63 96.61 coins | 10.7% | 128 | 121.6 | 1.05× | | [Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-nuclear-threat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 111 | $41.13 58.75 coins | 9.0% | 164 | 168.3 | 0.97× | | [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Yellow-banded (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-yellow-banded-battle-scarred) | 1 in 125 | $38.21 54.58 coins | 7.5% | 158 | 149.6 | 1.06× | | [P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $36.81 52.59 coins | 9.0% | 183 | 187.0 | 0.98× | | [M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $29.48 42.11 coins | 7.2% | 202 | 187.0 | 1.08× | | [MAG-7 \| Hazard (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hazard-well-worn) | 1 in 91 | $20.20 28.86 coins | 5.4% | 224 | 205.7 | 1.09× | | [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-field-tested) | 1 in 83 | $8.38 11.97 coins | 2.5% | 216 | 224.4 | 0.96× | | [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-urban-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 83 | $5.77 8.24 coins | 1.7% | 211 | 224.4 | 0.94× | | [Sealed Graffiti \| Recoil M4A4 (Tracer Yellow) graffiti · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-recoil-m4a4-tracer-yellow) | 1 in 20 | $4.66 6.66 coins | 5.7% | 933 | 935.2 | 1.00× | | [AUG \| Radiation Hazard (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-radiation-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 91 | $4.36 6.23 coins | 1.2% | 212 | 205.7 | 1.03× | | [Souvenir Negev \| Nuclear Waste (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-negev-nuclear-waste-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $2.07 2.96 coins | 3.5% | 1,402 | 1309.2 | 1.07× | | [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $1.61 2.3 coins | 3.1% | 1,522 | 1496.2 | 1.02× | | [MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-urban-hazard-factory-new) | 15.0% | $0.64 0.91 coins | 2.3% | 2,751 | 2805.4 | 0.98× | | [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Danger Close (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-danger-close-field-tested) | 25.0% | $0.15 0.22 coins | 0.9% | 4,671 | 4675.8 | 1.00× | | [P2000 \| Urban Hazard (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-urban-hazard-battle-scarred) | 30.0% | $0.10 0.15 coins | 0.8% | 5,534 | 5610.9 | 0.99× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=hazard-zone) [Sealed Graffiti | Recoil M4A4 (Tracer Yellow) graffiti · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-recoil-m4a4-tracer-yellow) Hidden $4.51 6.44 coins $4.66 6.66 coins 1.03x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC [P2000 | Urban Hazard (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-urban-hazard-battle-scarred) Hidden $4.51 6.44 coins $0.10 0.15 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC [P2000 | Urban Hazard (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-urban-hazard-battle-scarred) Hidden $4.51 6.44 coins $0.10 0.15 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC [StatTrak™ SG 553 | Danger Close (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-danger-close-field-tested) Hidden $4.51 6.44 coins $0.15 0.22 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC [Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-field-tested) [si^b^rO](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/si%5Eb%5ErO) $4.51 6.44 coins $1.61 2.3 coins 0.36x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC [MP7 | Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-urban-hazard-factory-new) Hidden $4.51 6.44 coins $0.64 0.91 coins 0.14x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC [P2000 | Urban Hazard (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-urban-hazard-battle-scarred) Hidden $4.51 6.44 coins $0.10 0.15 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC [P2000 | Urban Hazard (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-urban-hazard-battle-scarred) [User#181](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/User%23181) $4.51 6.44 coins $0.10 0.15 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC [StatTrak™ SG 553 | Danger Close (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-danger-close-field-tested) Hidden $4.51 6.44 coins $0.15 0.22 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC [P2000 | Urban Hazard (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-urban-hazard-battle-scarred) Hidden $4.51 6.44 coins $0.10 0.15 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $4.51 | 90.92% | 18 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $4.51 | 90.89% | 18 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $4.57 | 90.90% | 18 | | 6 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $4.58 | 90.90% | 18 | | 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $4.58 | 90.94% | 18 | | 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $4.59 | 90.87% | 18 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $4.59 | 90.91% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 2.1% extraordinary 0.9% restricted 9.6% Mythical 1.0% mil spec 42.1% Mil Spec Grade 1.2% base 5.0% industrial 8.1% #4b69ff 30.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.92 on average: an expected loss of $9.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt