--- title: "Hazard case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Hazard ($0.76) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.95% from 20 items with odds, observed 91.77% over 66K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hazard rendered: 2026-11-11T14:25Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Hazard](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hazard) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Hazard A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hazard?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hazard?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hazard) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hazard?window=all) Price · $0.76 · 1.08 coins Advertised RTP · 90.95% · EV $0.69 from 20 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.77% · 66K openings, odds method Variance · 326.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 113 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 98.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 93.48% ±42.50 6,933 openings 7 days · 94.37% ±14.99 56.6K openings 30 days · 91.77% ±13.89 66K openings since tracking started · 91.77% ±13.89 66K openings 50.5% 93.5% 136.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hazard?window=24h) | 6,933 | 93.48% ±42.5 | +0.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hazard?window=7d) | 56.6K | 94.37% ±15.0 | +0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hazard) | 66K | 91.77% ±13.9 | +0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hazard?window=all) | 66K | 91.77% ±13.9 | +0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 66.1K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $3,923 5,605 coins | 5.7% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Queen Jaguar (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-queen-jaguar-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $370 529 coins | 5.4% | 6 | 6.6 | 0.91× | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $190 271 coins | 2.8% | 8 | 6.6 | 1.21× | | [★ Bayonet \| Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $181 258 coins | 2.6% | 4 | 6.6 | 0.60× | | [★ Bayonet \| Freehand (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-freehand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $162 231 coins | 2.4% | 6 | 6.6 | 0.91× | | [★ Bayonet \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $128 183 coins | 1.9% | 10 | 6.6 | 1.51× | | [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $88.20 126 coins | 1.3% | 5 | 6.6 | 0.76× | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-ocean-drive-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $65.79 93.98 coins | 4.8% | 29 | 33.1 | 0.88× | | [P250 \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-whiteout-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,000 | $51.53 73.61 coins | 1.9% | 18 | 16.5 | 1.09× | | [MAC-10 \| Toybox (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-toybox-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $45.38 64.83 coins | 3.3% | 32 | 33.1 | 0.97× | | [P90 \| Cold Blooded (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cold-blooded-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $41.94 59.92 coins | 3.0% | 29 | 33.1 | 0.88× | | [P90 \| Scorched (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $26.52 37.89 coins | 3.9% | 68 | 66.1 | 1.03× | | [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $25.70 36.72 coins | 3.7% | 53 | 66.1 | 0.80× | | [SCAR-20 \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $24.75 35.36 coins | 1.8% | 30 | 33.1 | 0.91× | | [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $21.55 30.78 coins | 3.1% | 61 | 66.1 | 0.92× | | [Zeus x27 \| Dragon Snore (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-dragon-snore-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $8.86 12.65 coins | 1.3% | 69 | 66.1 | 1.04× | | [UMP-45 \| Fallout Warning (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fallout-warning-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $8.64 12.34 coins | 2.5% | 155 | 132.3 | 1.17× | | [Dual Berettas \| Black Limba (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-black-limba-battle-scarred) | 1 in 500 | $3.90 5.57 coins | 1.1% | 127 | 132.3 | 0.96× | | [Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hydro-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $2.02 2.89 coins | 1.5% | 326 | 330.6 | 0.99× | | [FAMAS \| Survivor Z (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-survivor-z-field-tested) | 98.4% | $0.32 0.46 coins | 46.1% | 65,089 | 65077.2 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $0.75 1.07 coins $3,923 5,605 coins 5,238x 2026-11-05 11:59 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-queen-jaguar-factory-new) Hidden $0.75 1.07 coins $392 560 coins 523.4x 2026-11-07 02:56 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-queen-jaguar-factory-new) Hidden $0.75 1.07 coins $392 560 coins 523.4x 2026-11-06 21:06 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-queen-jaguar-factory-new) Hidden $0.76 1.08 coins $370 529 coins 489.8x 2026-11-11 05:05 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-queen-jaguar-factory-new) Hidden $0.76 1.08 coins $370 529 coins 489.8x 2026-11-10 23:19 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-queen-jaguar-factory-new) Hidden $0.76 1.08 coins $370 529 coins 489.8x 2026-11-09 16:57 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-queen-jaguar-factory-new) Hidden $0.76 1.08 coins $370 529 coins 489.8x 2026-11-09 15:55 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-queen-jaguar-factory-new) Hidden $0.76 1.08 coins $370 529 coins 489.8x 2026-11-09 15:46 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) Hidden $0.75 1.07 coins $190 272 coins 254.2x 2026-11-07 03:00 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) [patrisha go go](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/patrisha%20go%20go) $0.75 1.07 coins $190 272 coins 254.2x 2026-11-06 21:33 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=hazard) [FAMAS | Survivor Z (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-survivor-z-field-tested) Hidden $0.76 1.08 coins $0.32 0.46 coins 0.43x 2026-11-11 14:24 UTC [FAMAS | Survivor Z (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-survivor-z-field-tested) Hidden $0.76 1.08 coins $0.32 0.46 coins 0.43x 2026-11-11 14:24 UTC [FAMAS | Survivor Z (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-survivor-z-field-tested) Hidden $0.76 1.08 coins $0.32 0.46 coins 0.43x 2026-11-11 14:24 UTC [FAMAS | Survivor Z (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-survivor-z-field-tested) [bixxy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/bixxy) $0.76 1.08 coins $0.32 0.46 coins 0.43x 2026-11-11 14:24 UTC [FAMAS | Survivor Z (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-survivor-z-field-tested) Hidden $0.76 1.08 coins $0.32 0.46 coins 0.43x 2026-11-11 14:24 UTC [FAMAS | Survivor Z (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-survivor-z-field-tested) Hidden $0.76 1.08 coins $0.32 0.46 coins 0.43x 2026-11-11 14:24 UTC [FAMAS | Survivor Z (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-survivor-z-field-tested) [Dice and Urus🍣🦖](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Dice%20and%20Urus%F0%9F%8D%A3%F0%9F%A6%96) $0.76 1.08 coins $0.32 0.46 coins 0.43x 2026-11-11 14:24 UTC [FAMAS | Survivor Z (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-survivor-z-field-tested) Hidden $0.76 1.08 coins $0.32 0.46 coins 0.43x 2026-11-11 14:24 UTC [FAMAS | Survivor Z (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-survivor-z-field-tested) Hidden $0.76 1.08 coins $0.32 0.46 coins 0.43x 2026-11-11 14:24 UTC [FAMAS | Survivor Z (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-survivor-z-field-tested) Hidden $0.76 1.08 coins $0.32 0.46 coins 0.43x 2026-11-11 14:24 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.76 | 90.95% | 20 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $0.76 | 91.05% | 20 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $0.75 | 90.79% | 20 | | 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $0.75 | 91.15% | 20 | | 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.75 | 91.13% | 20 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.75 | 91.02% | 20 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.1% extraordinary 0.0% mil spec 98.6% classified 0.4% consumer 0.1% uncommon 0.6% industrial 0.2% best hit $3,923 (5,238x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.95 on average: an expected loss of $9.05 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt