--- title: "Heartbreaker case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Heartbreaker ($30.10) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 16 items with odds, observed 84.04% over 2,950 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/heartbreaker rendered: 2026-11-11T13:59Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Heartbreaker](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/heartbreaker) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Heartbreaker A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/heartbreaker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/heartbreaker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/heartbreaker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/heartbreaker?window=all) Price · $30.10 · 43 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $27.37 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 84.04% · 2,950 openings, odds method Variance · 17.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 50 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 90.18% ±45.77 325 openings 7 days · 79.81% ±16.53 2,439 openings 30 days · 84.04% ±15.01 2,950 openings since tracking started · 84.04% ±15.01 2,950 openings 44.0% 90.3% 136.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/heartbreaker?window=24h) | 325 | 90.18% ±45.8 | −0.0σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/heartbreaker?window=7d) | 2,439 | 79.81% ±16.5 | −1.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/heartbreaker) | 2,950 | 84.04% ±15.0 | −0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/heartbreaker?window=all) | 2,950 | 84.04% ±15.0 | −0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,950 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $5,600 8,000 coins | 2.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,600 2,285 coins | 2.9% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× | | [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $1,114 1,591 coins | 1.6% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.69× | | [SCAR-20 \| Splash Jam (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $883 1,262 coins | 16.1% | 12 | 14.8 | 0.81× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 250 | $872 1,246 coins | 12.7% | 13 | 11.8 | 1.10× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 200 | $636 909 coins | 11.6% | 16 | 14.8 | 1.08× | | [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 弐 (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $389 555 coins | 7.1% | 12 | 14.8 | 0.81× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $360 514 coins | 6.6% | 17 | 14.8 | 1.15× | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-vaporwave-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $270 386 coins | 4.9% | 17 | 14.8 | 1.15× | | [Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $234 335 coins | 8.6% | 23 | 29.5 | 0.78× | | [AK-47 \| B the Monster (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $118 168 coins | 2.1% | 13 | 14.8 | 0.88× | | [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-sugar-rush-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $115 164 coins | 8.4% | 47 | 59.0 | 0.80× | | [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $102 145 coins | 9.3% | 74 | 73.8 | 1.00× | | [AWP \| Crakow! (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $61.91 88.44 coins | 1.1% | 18 | 14.8 | 1.22× | | [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-candy-apple-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $16.42 23.46 coins | 0.3% | 15 | 14.8 | 1.02× | | [Sealed Graffiti \| Broken Heart (Blood Red) graffiti · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-broken-heart-blood-red) | 90.0% | $1.36 1.94 coins | 4.5% | 2,671 | 2655.0 | 1.01× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $30.88 44.12 coins $1,149 1,642 coins 37.22x 2026-11-06 17:30 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $30.88 44.12 coins $1,149 1,642 coins 37.22x 2026-11-03 18:04 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $30.88 44.12 coins $891 1,273 coins 28.85x 2026-11-08 02:36 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $30.88 44.12 coins $891 1,273 coins 28.85x 2026-11-07 16:10 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $30.88 44.12 coins $891 1,273 coins 28.85x 2026-11-06 18:54 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $30.88 44.12 coins $891 1,273 coins 28.85x 2026-11-06 10:19 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $30.88 44.12 coins $891 1,273 coins 28.85x 2026-11-04 22:43 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $30.88 44.12 coins $891 1,273 coins 28.85x 2026-11-04 20:59 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $30.88 44.12 coins $891 1,273 coins 28.85x 2026-11-03 22:29 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $30.88 44.12 coins $891 1,273 coins 28.85x 2026-11-03 22:09 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=heartbreaker) [Sealed Graffiti | Broken Heart (Blood Red) graffiti · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-broken-heart-blood-red) Hidden $30.10 43 coins $1.36 1.94 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Broken Heart (Blood Red) graffiti · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-broken-heart-blood-red) Hidden $30.10 43 coins $1.36 1.94 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Broken Heart (Blood Red) graffiti · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-broken-heart-blood-red) Hidden $30.10 43 coins $1.36 1.94 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC [Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-factory-new) [AlienVPredatorVPlessyVFerguson](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/AlienVPredatorVPlessyVFerguson) $30.10 43 coins $234 335 coins 7.79x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Broken Heart (Blood Red) graffiti · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-broken-heart-blood-red) Hidden $30.10 43 coins $1.36 1.94 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 12:26 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Broken Heart (Blood Red) graffiti · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-broken-heart-blood-red) Hidden $30.10 43 coins $1.36 1.94 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 12:26 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Broken Heart (Blood Red) graffiti · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-broken-heart-blood-red) Hidden $30.10 43 coins $1.36 1.94 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 12:26 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Broken Heart (Blood Red) graffiti · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-broken-heart-blood-red) [Kickerrrrrrrr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kickerrrrrrrr) $30.10 43 coins $1.36 1.94 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 12:26 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Broken Heart (Blood Red) graffiti · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-broken-heart-blood-red) Hidden $30.10 43 coins $1.36 1.94 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 12:25 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Broken Heart (Blood Red) graffiti · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-broken-heart-blood-red) Hidden $30.10 43 coins $1.36 1.94 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 12:25 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $30.10 | 90.91% | 16 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $30.32 | 90.90% | 16 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $30.88 | 90.91% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.0% covert 4.0% classified 3.5% restricted 0.5% legendary 0.5% Ancient 0.5% rare 0.5% mil spec 0.5% base 90.0% best hit $1,149 (37.22x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt