---
title: "Hearty case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Hearty ($22.79) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.92% from 20 items with odds, observed 88.99% over 770 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hearty
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:59Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Hearty](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hearty)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Hearty

A case on CSGORoll (25%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hearty?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hearty?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hearty) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hearty?window=all)

Price · $22.79 · 32.56 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.92% · EV $20.72 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.99% · 770 openings, odds method

Variance · 7.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 18.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 82.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 71 openings · below min

7 days · 94.15% ±23.20 566 openings

30 days · 88.99% ±19.90 770 openings

since tracking started · 88.99% ±19.90 770 openings

14.0% 80.3% 146.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hearty?window=24h) | 71 | 80.29% ±65.5 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hearty?window=7d) | 566 | 94.15% ±23.2 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hearty) | 770 | 88.99% ±19.9 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hearty?window=all) | 770 | 88.99% ±19.9 | −0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 774 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $5,600 8,000 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 11,111 | $3,622 5,175 coins | 1.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,639 2,341 coins | 4.0% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,111 | $751 1,073 coins | 3.3% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · legendary · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 2,000 | $673 961 coins | 1.6% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 667 | $389 556 coins | 2.8% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $295 421 coins | 1.4% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [Sticker \| ropz (Foil) \| Krakow 2017 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ropz-foil-krakow-2017) | 1 in 500 | $255 365 coins | 2.5% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 200 | $121 173 coins | 2.9% | 1 | 3.9 | 0.26× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-revolution-minimal-wear) | 1 in 167 | $114 163 coins | 3.3% | 4 | 4.6 | 0.86× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-fairy-tale-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $70.70 101 coins | 3.4% | 10 | 7.7 | 1.29× |
| [Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-pink-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $69.05 98.65 coins | 0.8% | 4 | 1.9 | 2.07× |
| [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $49.01 70.01 coins | 9.5% | 39 | 31.0 | 1.26× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Wasteland Princess (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-wasteland-princess-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $45.21 64.58 coins | 4.4% | 15 | 15.5 | 0.97× |
| [Sticker \| loWel (Foil) \| Krakow 2017 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lowel-foil-krakow-2017) | 1 in 11 | $23.44 33.48 coins | 10.2% | 72 | 69.7 | 1.03× |
| [AWP \| Crakow! (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $16.25 23.21 coins | 5.5% | 60 | 54.2 | 1.11× |
| [Sticker \| nex (Foil) \| Cologne 2015 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-nex-foil-cologne-2015) | 15.0% | $15.58 22.26 coins | 11.3% | 94 | 116.1 | 0.81× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-cortex-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $13.92 19.88 coins | 6.7% | 75 | 77.4 | 0.97× |
| [Sticker \| WorldEdit (Foil) \| Katowice 2019 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-worldedit-foil-katowice-2019) | 20.0% | $12.19 17.42 coins | 11.8% | 148 | 154.8 | 0.96× |
| [Sticker \| mousesports (Foil) \| Berlin 2019 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mousesports-foil-berlin-2019) | 30.0% | $8.90 12.72 coins | 12.9% | 250 | 232.2 | 1.08× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $22.79 32.56 coins $1,639 2,341 coins 71.90x 2026-11-10 03:06 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · legendary · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $22.79 32.56 coins $673 961 coins 29.51x 2026-11-09 11:45 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=hearty)

[StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-fairy-tale-minimal-wear) Hidden $22.79 32.56 coins $70.70 101 coins 3.10x 2026-11-11 15:45 UTC

[StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | The Fuschia Is Now (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-factory-new) Hidden $22.79 32.56 coins $49.01 70.01 coins 2.15x 2026-11-11 15:45 UTC

[Sticker | mousesports (Foil) | Berlin 2019 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mousesports-foil-berlin-2019) Hidden $22.79 32.56 coins $8.90 12.72 coins 0.39x 2026-11-11 15:45 UTC

[AWP | Crakow! (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-well-worn) Hidden $22.79 32.56 coins $16.25 23.21 coins 0.71x 2026-11-11 15:45 UTC

[Sticker | loWel (Foil) | Krakow 2017 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lowel-foil-krakow-2017) Hidden $22.79 32.56 coins $23.44 33.48 coins 1.03x 2026-11-11 15:45 UTC

[Sticker | loWel (Foil) | Krakow 2017 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lowel-foil-krakow-2017) [🟢Kick: JULSY](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%F0%9F%9F%A2Kick%3A%20JULSY) $22.79 32.56 coins $23.44 33.48 coins 1.03x 2026-11-11 15:45 UTC

[AWP | Crakow! (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-well-worn) Hidden $22.79 32.56 coins $16.25 23.21 coins 0.71x 2026-11-11 15:17 UTC

[Sticker | WorldEdit (Foil) | Katowice 2019 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-worldedit-foil-katowice-2019) Hidden $22.79 32.56 coins $12.19 17.42 coins 0.54x 2026-11-11 15:17 UTC

[Sticker | WorldEdit (Foil) | Katowice 2019 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-worldedit-foil-katowice-2019) Hidden $22.79 32.56 coins $12.19 17.42 coins 0.54x 2026-11-11 15:17 UTC

[Sticker | WorldEdit (Foil) | Katowice 2019 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-worldedit-foil-katowice-2019) Hidden $22.79 32.56 coins $12.19 17.42 coins 0.54x 2026-11-11 15:17 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $22.79 | 90.92% | 20 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $22.81 | 90.92% | 20 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $22.78 | 90.91% | 20 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 0.0% covert 1.5% legendary 0.1% remarkable 29.2% classified 17.0% restricted 0.3% rare 7.0% exotic 45.0% best hit $1,639 (71.90x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.92 on average: an expected loss of $9.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt