---
title: "Heat Wave case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Heat Wave ($70.32) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 14 items with odds, observed 89.47% over 119 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/heat-wave
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:51Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Heat Wave](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/heat-wave)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Heat Wave

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/heat-wave?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/heat-wave?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/heat-wave) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/heat-wave?window=all)

Price · $70.32 · 100 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $63.93 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.47% · 119 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 16.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 80.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 2 openings · below min

7 days · 91.59% ±19.37 113 openings

30 days · 89.47% ±18.85 119 openings

since tracking started · 89.47% ±18.85 119 openings

-0.5% 98.3% 197.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/heat-wave?window=24h) | 2 | 49.99% ±146.2 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/heat-wave?window=7d) | 113 | 91.59% ±19.4 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/heat-wave) | 119 | 89.47% ±18.9 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/heat-wave?window=all) | 119 | 89.47% ±18.9 | −0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 119 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-field-tested-2) | 1 in 50 | $412 589 coins | 12.9% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.84× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $327 467 coins | 2.6% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $298 425 coins | 1.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 59 | $223 318 coins | 5.9% | 2 | 2.0 | 0.99× |
| [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $200 286 coins | 12.5% | 6 | 4.8 | 1.26× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 71 | $174 249 coins | 3.8% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.60× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $142 203 coins | 5.6% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.01× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $129 184 coins | 8.1% | 6 | 4.8 | 1.26× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $120 171 coins | 5.6% | 3 | 3.6 | 0.84× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 19.8% | $40.04 57.2 coins | 12.4% | 30 | 23.6 | 1.27× |
| [MP7 \| Full Stop (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-full-stop-factory-new) | 20.0% | $39.78 56.83 coins | 12.4% | 22 | 23.8 | 0.92× |
| [MP9 \| Setting Sun (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-factory-new) | 20.0% | $30.25 43.22 coins | 9.5% | 24 | 23.8 | 1.01× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-field-tested) | 20.0% | $22.79 32.56 coins | 7.1% | 20 | 23.8 | 0.84× |
| [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-candy-apple-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $16.42 23.46 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 1.0 | — |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=heat-wave)

[MP9 | Setting Sun (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-factory-new) Hidden $70.32 100 coins $30.25 43.22 coins 0.43x 2026-11-10 17:13 UTC

[AWP | Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) [ViggerMcNieger](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/ViggerMcNieger) $70.32 100 coins $40.04 57.2 coins 0.57x 2026-11-10 17:13 UTC

[MP7 | Full Stop (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-full-stop-factory-new) Hidden $70.32 100 coins $39.78 56.83 coins 0.57x 2026-11-10 11:44 UTC

[MP7 | Full Stop (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-full-stop-factory-new) Hidden $70.32 100 coins $39.78 56.83 coins 0.57x 2026-11-10 11:44 UTC

[MP9 | Setting Sun (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-factory-new) Hidden $70.32 100 coins $30.25 43.22 coins 0.43x 2026-11-10 11:44 UTC

[AWP | Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) [DeeDee♥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/DeeDee%E2%99%A5) $70.32 100 coins $40.04 57.2 coins 0.57x 2026-11-10 11:44 UTC

[AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-field-tested) Hidden $70.32 100 coins $22.79 32.56 coins 0.32x 2026-11-10 10:50 UTC

[AWP | Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) Hidden $70.32 100 coins $40.04 57.2 coins 0.57x 2026-11-10 10:50 UTC

[M4A4 | Hellfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-minimal-wear) Hidden $70.32 100 coins $129 184 coins 1.83x 2026-11-10 10:50 UTC

[MP7 | Full Stop (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-full-stop-factory-new) Hidden $70.32 100 coins $39.78 56.83 coins 0.57x 2026-11-10 10:50 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $70.32 | 90.91% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $72.30 | 90.91% | 14 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $72.21 | 90.91% | 14 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed restricted 5.0% covert 30.2% classified 4.0% mil spec 40.8% violet 20.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt