--- title: "Heat case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Heat ($26.19) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 19 items with odds, observed 85.96% over 968 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/heat rendered: 2026-11-11T15:09Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Heat](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/heat) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Heat A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/heat?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/heat?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/heat) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/heat?window=all) Price · $26.19 · 37.42 coins Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $23.81 from 19 items Observed RTP, 30d · 85.96% · 968 openings, odds method Variance · 5.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 22 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 73.1% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 42 openings · below min 7 days · 89.83% ±15.51 818 openings 30 days · 85.96% ±14.27 968 openings since tracking started · 85.96% ±14.27 968 openings 27.5% 96.0% 164.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/heat?window=24h) | 42 | 95.85% ±67.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/heat?window=7d) | 818 | 89.83% ±15.5 | −0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/heat) | 968 | 85.96% ±14.3 | −0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/heat?window=all) | 968 | 85.96% ±14.3 | −0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 976 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Boom! (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-boom-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $438 625 coins | 1.8% | 1 | 1.0 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 弐 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $404 577 coins | 3.4% | 0 | 2.0 | 0.00× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Chalice (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-chalice-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $348 497 coins | 4.4% | 6 | 2.9 | 2.05× | | [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $286 409 coins | 36.1% | 25 | 29.3 | 0.85× | | [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $164 234 coins | 2.8% | 5 | 3.9 | 1.28× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-black-tie-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $108 154 coins | 2.3% | 7 | 4.9 | 1.43× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 182 | $84.70 121 coins | 2.0% | 6 | 5.4 | 1.12× | | [P90 \| Death by Kitty (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-by-kitty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $80.50 115 coins | 6.8% | 20 | 19.5 | 1.02× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Night (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-night-well-worn) | 1 in 125 | $72.80 104 coins | 2.4% | 5 | 7.8 | 0.64× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Turtle (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-turtle-field-tested) | 1 in 154 | $53.31 76.15 coins | 1.5% | 7 | 6.3 | 1.10× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Rezan the Red (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-rezan-the-red-battle-scarred) | 1 in 111 | $52.35 74.79 coins | 2.0% | 7 | 8.8 | 0.80× | | [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $49.06 70.09 coins | 8.2% | 39 | 39.0 | 1.00× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Urban Masked (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-urban-masked-well-worn) | 1 in 67 | $40.54 57.92 coins | 2.6% | 12 | 14.6 | 0.82× | | [AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $33.31 47.59 coins | 7.0% | 42 | 48.8 | 0.86× | | [USP-S \| Business Class (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-business-class-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $28.34 40.49 coins | 8.3% | 68 | 68.3 | 1.00× | | [USP-S \| Overgrowth (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-well-worn) | 1 in 12 | $17.39 24.84 coins | 5.9% | 67 | 79.1 | 0.85× | | [Sawed-Off \| Serenity (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-serenity-field-tested) | 20.0% | $1.58 2.26 coins | 1.3% | 208 | 195.2 | 1.07× | | [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Grand Prix (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-grand-prix-field-tested) | 20.0% | $1.34 1.91 coins | 1.1% | 197 | 195.2 | 1.01× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Tuxedo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tuxedo-battle-scarred) | 25.0% | $0.20 0.28 coins | 0.2% | 254 | 244.0 | 1.04× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=heat) [CZ75-Auto | Tuxedo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tuxedo-battle-scarred) [Pvpbotx](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Pvpbotx) $26.19 37.42 coins $0.20 0.28 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:05 UTC [Sawed-Off | Serenity (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-serenity-field-tested) Hidden $26.19 37.42 coins $1.58 2.26 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 15:05 UTC [Sawed-Off | Serenity (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-serenity-field-tested) Hidden $26.19 37.42 coins $1.58 2.26 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 15:05 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Tuxedo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tuxedo-battle-scarred) Hidden $26.19 37.42 coins $0.20 0.28 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:05 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Tuxedo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tuxedo-battle-scarred) Hidden $26.19 37.42 coins $0.20 0.28 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 10:05 UTC [Sawed-Off | Serenity (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-serenity-field-tested) Hidden $26.19 37.42 coins $1.58 2.26 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 10:05 UTC [Sawed-Off | Serenity (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-serenity-field-tested) [Cousin of po](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Cousin%20of%20po) $26.19 37.42 coins $1.58 2.26 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 10:05 UTC [AWP | Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) Hidden $26.19 37.42 coins $33.31 47.59 coins 1.27x 2026-11-11 10:05 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Urban Masked (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-urban-masked-well-worn) Hidden $26.19 37.42 coins $40.54 57.92 coins 1.55x 2026-11-11 10:05 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Urban Masked (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-urban-masked-well-worn) Hidden $26.19 37.42 coins $40.54 57.92 coins 1.55x 2026-11-11 10:05 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $26.19 | 90.90% | 19 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $26.59 | 90.91% | 19 | | 7 Nov, 11:15 UTC | $27.28 | 90.91% | 19 | | 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $27.27 | 90.91% | 19 | | 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $27.27 | 90.90% | 19 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $27.27 | 90.91% | 19 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 2.1% restricted 48.6% covert 8.3% classified 9.0% mil spec 32.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt