---
title: "Heavy Hitter case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Heavy Hitter ($34.99) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.92% from 18 items with odds, observed 88.78% over 1,239 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/heavy-hitter
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:34Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Heavy Hitter](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/heavy-hitter)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Heavy Hitter

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/heavy-hitter?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/heavy-hitter?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/heavy-hitter) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/heavy-hitter?window=all)

Price · $34.99 · 49.98 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.92% · EV $31.81 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.78% · 1,239 openings, odds method

Variance · 7.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 16.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 64.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 76 openings · below min

7 days · 88.70% ±16.44 1,009 openings

30 days · 88.78% ±14.82 1,239 openings

since tracking started · 88.78% ±14.82 1,239 openings

18.5% 79.3% 140.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/heavy-hitter?window=24h) | 76 | 79.16% ±60.2 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/heavy-hitter?window=7d) | 1,009 | 88.70% ±16.4 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/heavy-hitter) | 1,239 | 88.78% ±14.8 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/heavy-hitter?window=all) | 1,239 | 88.78% ±14.8 | −0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,239 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) | 1 in 10,000 | $6,003 8,575 coins | 1.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,576 2,251 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,559 2,227 coins | 2.5% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Smoke Out (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-smoke-out-factory-new) | 1 in 526 | $939 1,342 coins | 5.6% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.27× |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-well-worn) | 1 in 500 | $634 905 coins | 4.0% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.40× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Tiger Strike (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-tiger-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $264 377 coins | 0.8% | 4 | 1.2 | 3.23× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $230 328 coins | 3.6% | 0 | 6.2 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $163 233 coins | 10.3% | 20 | 24.8 | 0.81× |
| [M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $62.27 88.95 coins | 11.7% | 77 | 74.3 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $61.51 87.87 coins | 13.5% | 78 | 86.7 | 0.90× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-well-worn) | 1 in 11 | $56.39 80.56 coins | 16.0% | 133 | 111.5 | 1.19× |
| [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $49.06 70.09 coins | 15.4% | 138 | 123.9 | 1.11× |
| [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-well-worn) | 10.0% | $32.80 46.86 coins | 10.3% | 120 | 123.9 | 0.97× |
| [Souvenir AUG \| Condemned (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-aug-condemned-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $3.37 4.81 coins | 0.5% | 63 | 62.0 | 1.02× |
| [Sticker \| Watermelon Buttery (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-watermelon-buttery-holo) | 10.0% | $3.14 4.48 coins | 1.0% | 125 | 123.9 | 1.01× |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-battle-scarred) | 14.9% | $2.52 3.6 coins | 1.2% | 184 | 185.0 | 0.99× |
| [Negev \| Lionfish (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-lionfish-factory-new) | 15.0% | $1.13 1.62 coins | 0.5% | 175 | 185.8 | 0.94× |
| [SSG 08 \| Acid Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-acid-fade-factory-new) | 10.0% | $0.56 0.8 coins | 0.2% | 117 | 123.9 | 0.94× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) Hidden $35.32 50.46 coins $1,507 2,153 coins 42.67x 2026-11-08 02:35 UTC

[★ Moto Gloves | Smoke Out (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-smoke-out-factory-new) Hidden $34.99 49.98 coins $939 1,342 coins 26.85x 2026-11-09 20:16 UTC

[★ Moto Gloves | Smoke Out (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-smoke-out-factory-new) Hidden $34.99 49.99 coins $939 1,342 coins 26.85x 2026-11-08 22:45 UTC

[★ Moto Gloves | Smoke Out (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-smoke-out-factory-new) [User#507](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/User%23507) $35.32 50.46 coins $939 1,342 coins 26.60x 2026-11-07 23:59 UTC

[AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-well-worn) Hidden $35.32 50.45 coins $641 916 coins 18.16x 2026-11-04 13:46 UTC

[AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-well-worn) Hidden $34.99 49.99 coins $634 905 coins 18.10x 2026-11-08 22:43 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=heavy-hitter)

[Negev | Lionfish (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-lionfish-factory-new) Hidden $34.99 49.98 coins $1.13 1.62 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 17:30 UTC

[USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-well-worn) Hidden $34.99 49.98 coins $56.39 80.56 coins 1.61x 2026-11-11 17:30 UTC

[AK-47 | Black Laminate (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-well-worn) Hidden $34.99 49.98 coins $32.80 46.86 coins 0.94x 2026-11-11 17:30 UTC

[Galil AR | Sugar Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-minimal-wear) [Coonley](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Coonley) $34.99 49.98 coins $49.06 70.09 coins 1.40x 2026-11-11 17:30 UTC

[Negev | Lionfish (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-lionfish-factory-new) [AWP GOD](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/AWP%20GOD) $34.99 49.98 coins $1.13 1.62 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 14:26 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-hyper-beast-well-worn) Hidden $34.99 49.98 coins $61.51 87.87 coins 1.76x 2026-11-11 14:26 UTC

[AK-47 | Black Laminate (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-well-worn) Hidden $34.99 49.98 coins $32.80 46.86 coins 0.94x 2026-11-11 14:26 UTC

[AK-47 | Black Laminate (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-well-worn) Hidden $34.99 49.98 coins $32.80 46.86 coins 0.94x 2026-11-11 14:26 UTC

[Sticker | Watermelon Buttery (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-watermelon-buttery-holo) Hidden $34.99 49.98 coins $3.14 4.48 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 14:23 UTC

[AK-47 | Black Laminate (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-well-worn) Hidden $34.99 49.98 coins $32.80 46.86 coins 0.94x 2026-11-11 14:23 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $34.99 | 90.92% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $34.99 | 90.92% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $34.97 | 90.90% | 18 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $35.32 | 90.91% | 18 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $35.32 | 90.91% | 18 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 18.8% extraordinary 0.3% restricted 21.0% classified 10.0% mil spec 20.0% industrial 5.0% remarkable 10.0% Mythical 14.9% best hit $1,507 (42.67x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.92 on average: an expected loss of $9.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt