---
title: "Heavy case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Heavy ($317.37) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 17 items with odds, observed 83.88% over 611 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/heavy
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:18Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Heavy](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/heavy)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Heavy

A case on CSGORoll (40%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/heavy?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/heavy?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/heavy) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/heavy?window=all)

Price · $317.37 · 453 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $288.52 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 83.88% · 611 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 12.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 66.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 32 openings · below min

7 days · 84.26% ±15.17 561 openings

30 days · 83.88% ±14.53 611 openings

since tracking started · 83.88% ±14.53 611 openings

14.5% 78.5% 142.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/heavy?window=24h) | 32 | 78.39% ±63.4 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/heavy?window=7d) | 561 | 84.26% ±15.2 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/heavy) | 611 | 83.88% ±14.5 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/heavy?window=all) | 611 | 83.88% ±14.5 | −0.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 611 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-well-worn) | 1 in 333 | $7,297 10,425 coins | 7.6% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.64× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-field-tested) | 1 in 400 | $3,311 4,730 coins | 2.9% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.65× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $2,205 3,150 coins | 4.6% | 3 | 3.7 | 0.82× |
| [AWP \| The Prince (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-battle-scarred) | 1 in 56 | $1,528 2,183 coins | 9.5% | 12 | 11.0 | 1.09× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) | 1 in 125 | $1,438 2,054 coins | 4.0% | 1 | 4.9 | 0.20× |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 222 | $1,373 1,961 coins | 2.1% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.09× |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) | 1 in 83 | $1,089 1,555 coins | 4.5% | 8 | 7.3 | 1.09× |
| [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $995 1,421 coins | 10.3% | 9 | 18.3 | 0.49× |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $947 1,353 coins | 13.1% | 26 | 24.4 | 1.06× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 100 | $816 1,166 coins | 2.8% | 7 | 6.1 | 1.15× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) | 1 in 29 | $746 1,066 coins | 9.1% | 21 | 21.4 | 0.98× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 15 | $415 593 coins | 9.5% | 36 | 40.3 | 0.89× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 21 | $410 586 coins | 6.8% | 25 | 29.3 | 0.85× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 19 | $339 484 coins | 6.1% | 29 | 31.8 | 0.91× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $310 443 coins | 7.0% | 28 | 39.7 | 0.71× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 30.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 215 | 183.3 | 1.17× |
| [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 30.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 184 | 183.3 | 1.00× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-well-worn) [Fslayer90](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Fslayer90) $322 460 coins $7,476 10,680 coins 23.21x 2026-11-07 01:46 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-well-worn) Hidden $322 460 coins $7,476 10,680 coins 23.21x 2026-11-06 22:24 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-well-worn) [Kazlic](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kazlic) $322 460 coins $7,476 10,680 coins 23.21x 2026-11-04 23:56 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-field-tested) Hidden $322 460 coins $3,423 4,890 coins 10.62x 2026-11-06 15:58 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $317 453 coins $2,205 3,150 coins 6.95x 2026-11-10 16:26 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $322 460 coins $2,205 3,150 coins 6.84x 2026-11-07 06:04 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $322 460 coins $2,205 3,150 coins 6.84x 2026-11-07 01:27 UTC

[AWP | The Prince (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-battle-scarred) [Mopper](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Mopper) $317 453 coins $1,528 2,183 coins 4.81x 2026-11-10 08:54 UTC

[AWP | The Prince (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-battle-scarred) Hidden $322 460 coins $1,477 2,110 coins 4.58x 2026-11-08 06:37 UTC

[AWP | The Prince (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-battle-scarred) [AcostaKurin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/AcostaKurin) $322 460 coins $1,477 2,110 coins 4.58x 2026-11-07 00:49 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=heavy)

[★ Bayonet | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $317 453 coins $310 443 coins 0.98x 2026-11-11 12:17 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) [Hirschbaer](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Hirschbaer) $317 453 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:33 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [kick/johncs LIVE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/kick%2Fjohncs%20LIVE) $317 453 coins $415 593 coins 1.31x 2026-11-11 08:58 UTC

[AWP | Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-minimal-wear) Hidden $317 453 coins $995 1,421 coins 3.13x 2026-11-11 08:57 UTC

[MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $317 453 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 08:56 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) Hidden $317 453 coins $339 484 coins 1.07x 2026-11-11 08:55 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $317 453 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 08:52 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $317 453 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 08:52 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $317 453 coins $310 443 coins 0.98x 2026-11-11 08:52 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $317 453 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 08:51 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $317 | 90.91% | 17 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $322 | 90.91% | 17 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed contraband 0.3% epic 0.3% covert 39.5% consumer 60.0% best hit $7,476 (23.21x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt