--- title: "Hercules case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Hercules ($53.52) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 22 items with odds, observed 104.69% over 104 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hercules rendered: 2026-11-11T13:20Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Hercules](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hercules) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Hercules A case on CSGORoll (25%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hercules?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hercules?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hercules) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hercules?window=all) Price · $53.52 · 76.46 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $48.66 from 22 items Observed RTP, 30d · 104.69% · 104 openings, odds method Variance · 15.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.6% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 81.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 14 openings · below min 7 days · 80 openings · below min 30 days · 104.69% ±76.41 104 openings since tracking started · 104.69% ±76.41 104 openings -0.5% 145.0% 290.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hercules?window=24h) | 14 | 82.58% ±207.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hercules?window=7d) | 80 | 67.76% ±87.1 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hercules) | 104 | 104.69% ±76.4 | +0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hercules?window=all) | 104 | 104.69% ±76.4 | +0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 104 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $8,887 12,695 coins | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-spearmint-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $5,471 7,815 coins | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $4,946 7,065 coins | 3.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 2,500 | $4,578 6,540 coins | 3.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [MP9 \| Wild Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,069 2,955 coins | 4.3% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [Negev \| Mjölnir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-mjolnir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 667 | $1,397 1,996 coins | 4.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-field-tested) | 1 in 667 | $983 1,404 coins | 3.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Souvenir M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-eye-of-horus-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $930 1,329 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [MAG-7 \| Cinquedea (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cinquedea-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $636 908 coins | 2.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 333 | $454 648 coins | 2.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Leather (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-leather-well-worn) | 1 in 250 | $220 314 coins | 1.8% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-panthera-onca-minimal-wear) | 1 in 286 | $216 309 coins | 1.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $104 148 coins | 6.4% | 2 | 3.1 | 0.64× | | [Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chatterbox-battle-scarred) | 1 in 57 | $103 147 coins | 3.7% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.10× | | [AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $98.70 141 coins | 8.1% | 4 | 4.2 | 0.96× | | [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Corticera (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-corticera-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $79.10 113 coins | 13.0% | 10 | 8.3 | 1.20× | | [UMP-45 \| Minotaur's Labyrinth (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-minotaurs-labyrinth-field-tested) | 1 in 222 | $78.40 112 coins | 0.7% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [Souvenir P250 \| Apep's Curse (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-apeps-curse-field-tested) | 15.0% | $43.89 62.7 coins | 13.5% | 21 | 15.6 | 1.35× | | [AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $40.19 57.42 coins | 5.0% | 6 | 6.2 | 0.96× | | [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-imperial-dragon-factory-new) | 10.0% | $21.90 31.28 coins | 4.5% | 8 | 10.4 | 0.77× | | [StatTrak™ Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-zeus-x27-olympus-factory-new) | 25.0% | $15.11 21.59 coins | 7.8% | 22 | 26.0 | 0.85× | | [P90 \| ScaraB Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-scarab-rush-minimal-wear) | 25.0% | $8.59 12.27 coins | 4.4% | 26 | 26.0 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [MP9 | Wild Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-minimal-wear) [HIM](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/HIM) $53.62 76.6 coins $2,058 2,940 coins 38.38x 2026-11-03 06:33 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=hercules) [P90 | ScaraB Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-scarab-rush-minimal-wear) Hidden $53.52 76.46 coins $8.59 12.27 coins 0.16x 2026-11-10 17:47 UTC [P90 | ScaraB Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-scarab-rush-minimal-wear) Hidden $53.52 76.46 coins $8.59 12.27 coins 0.16x 2026-11-10 17:47 UTC [P90 | ScaraB Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-scarab-rush-minimal-wear) Hidden $53.52 76.46 coins $8.59 12.27 coins 0.16x 2026-11-10 17:47 UTC [P90 | ScaraB Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-scarab-rush-minimal-wear) [steffyow;D](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/steffyow%3BD) $53.52 76.46 coins $8.59 12.27 coins 0.16x 2026-11-10 17:47 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-well-worn) Hidden $53.52 76.46 coins $104 148 coins 1.94x 2026-11-10 17:22 UTC [StatTrak™ Zeus x27 | Olympus (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-zeus-x27-olympus-factory-new) Hidden $53.52 76.46 coins $15.11 21.59 coins 0.28x 2026-11-10 17:22 UTC [Souvenir P250 | Apep's Curse (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-apeps-curse-field-tested) Hidden $53.52 76.46 coins $43.89 62.7 coins 0.82x 2026-11-10 17:22 UTC [AK-47 | Green Laminate (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-factory-new) Hidden $53.52 76.46 coins $40.19 57.42 coins 0.75x 2026-11-10 17:22 UTC [StatTrak™ Zeus x27 | Olympus (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-zeus-x27-olympus-factory-new) Hidden $53.52 76.46 coins $15.11 21.59 coins 0.28x 2026-11-10 17:22 UTC [Souvenir P250 | Apep's Curse (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-apeps-curse-field-tested) [gifu](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/gifu) $53.52 76.46 coins $43.89 62.7 coins 0.82x 2026-11-10 17:22 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $53.52 | 90.91% | 22 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $53.46 | 90.91% | 22 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $53.62 | 90.91% | 22 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.0% extraordinary 0.4% covert 8.9% classified 59.0% rare 0.3% mil spec 6.5% restricted 25.0% best hit $2,058 (38.38x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt