---
title: "Heroic case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Heroic ($7.29) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.88% from 13 items with odds, observed 92.07% over 4,189 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/heroic
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:11Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Heroic](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/heroic)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Heroic

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/heroic?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/heroic?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/heroic) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/heroic?window=all)

Price · $7.29 · 10.42 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.88% · EV $6.63 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 92.07% · 4,189 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 16 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 74.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 77.76% ±29.05 163 openings

7 days · 92.65% ±6.47 3,296 openings

30 days · 92.07% ±5.74 4,189 openings

since tracking started · 92.07% ±5.74 4,189 openings

48.0% 77.8% 107.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/heroic?window=24h) | 163 | 77.76% ±29.1 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/heroic?window=7d) | 3,296 | 92.65% ±6.47 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/heroic) | 4,189 | 92.07% ±5.74 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/heroic?window=all) | 4,189 | 92.07% ±5.74 | +0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,189 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Sticker \| ScreaM \| Cologne 2016 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-scream-cologne-2016) | 1 in 80 | $89.60 128 coins | 16.9% | 60 | 52.4 | 1.15× |
| [Sticker \| iBUYPOWER \| Cologne 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-cologne-2014) | 1 in 1,000 | $81.90 117 coins | 1.2% | 3 | 4.2 | 0.72× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $66.79 95.42 coins | 5.0% | 12 | 20.9 | 0.57× |
| [Sticker \| Titan \| Cluj-Napoca 2015 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-cluj-napoca-2015) | 1 in 667 | $50.69 72.42 coins | 1.1% | 12 | 6.3 | 1.91× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $47.66 68.09 coins | 19.8% | 119 | 115.2 | 1.03× |
| [ESL One Cologne 2015 Challengers (Foil) other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/esl-one-cologne-2015-challengers-foil) | 1 in 67 | $31.82 45.46 coins | 7.2% | 64 | 62.8 | 1.02× |
| [Sticker \| ESL One Cologne 2014 (Blue) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-esl-one-cologne-2014-blue) | 1 in 31 | $14.85 21.21 coins | 7.3% | 127 | 136.1 | 0.93× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hemoglobin-field-tested) | 10.0% | $9.02 12.89 coins | 13.6% | 400 | 418.9 | 0.95× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Blueprint (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-blueprint-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $8.98 12.83 coins | 8.8% | 290 | 272.3 | 1.07× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Off World (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-off-world-factory-new) | 15.0% | $3.49 4.98 coins | 7.9% | 609 | 628.4 | 0.97× |
| [Sticker \| Ruby Stream (Lenticular) sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ruby-stream-lenticular) | 12.0% | $2.27 3.24 coins | 4.1% | 524 | 502.7 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ M249 \| System Lock (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m249-system-lock-factory-new) | 17.0% | $1.69 2.41 coins | 4.3% | 765 | 712.1 | 1.07× |
| [Sticker \| Cloud9 (Glitter) \| Antwerp 2022 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cloud9-glitter-antwerp-2022) | 30.0% | $0.59 0.85 coins | 2.7% | 1,204 | 1256.7 | 0.96× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=heroic)

[StatTrak™ M249 | System Lock (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m249-system-lock-factory-new) Hidden $7.29 10.42 coins $1.69 2.41 coins 0.23x 2026-11-11 09:18 UTC

[Sticker | Cloud9 (Glitter) | Antwerp 2022 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cloud9-glitter-antwerp-2022) Hidden $7.29 10.42 coins $0.59 0.85 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 09:18 UTC

[Sticker | Cloud9 (Glitter) | Antwerp 2022 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cloud9-glitter-antwerp-2022) Hidden $7.29 10.42 coins $0.59 0.85 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 09:18 UTC

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Off World (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-off-world-factory-new) Hidden $7.29 10.42 coins $3.49 4.98 coins 0.48x 2026-11-11 09:18 UTC

[StatTrak™ M249 | System Lock (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m249-system-lock-factory-new) Hidden $7.29 10.42 coins $1.69 2.41 coins 0.23x 2026-11-11 09:18 UTC

[StatTrak™ M249 | System Lock (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m249-system-lock-factory-new) [S0nn3](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/S0nn3) $7.29 10.42 coins $1.69 2.41 coins 0.23x 2026-11-11 09:18 UTC

[Sticker | Ruby Stream (Lenticular) sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ruby-stream-lenticular) Hidden $7.29 10.42 coins $2.27 3.24 coins 0.31x 2026-11-11 09:18 UTC

[StatTrak™ M249 | System Lock (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m249-system-lock-factory-new) Hidden $7.29 10.42 coins $1.69 2.41 coins 0.23x 2026-11-11 09:18 UTC

[Sticker | Ruby Stream (Lenticular) sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ruby-stream-lenticular) Hidden $7.29 10.42 coins $2.27 3.24 coins 0.31x 2026-11-11 09:18 UTC

[Sticker | Cloud9 (Glitter) | Antwerp 2022 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cloud9-glitter-antwerp-2022) Hidden $7.29 10.42 coins $0.59 0.85 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 09:18 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 20:11 UTC | $7.29 | 90.88% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $7.27 | 90.87% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $7.27 | 90.93% | 13 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $7.41 | 90.92% | 13 |
| 4 Nov, 22:33 UTC | $7.43 | 90.91% | 13 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $7.41 | 90.94% | 13 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed high 1.5% classified 0.5% covert 2.8% base 1.5% exotic 3.3% restricted 10.0% mil spec 38.5% extraordinary 12.0% remarkable 30.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.88 on average: an expected loss of $9.12 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt