--- title: "Hidden Vault case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Hidden Vault ($30.60) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 15 items with odds, observed 81.06% over 5,141 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hidden-vault rendered: 2026-11-11T15:37Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Hidden Vault](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hidden-vault) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Hidden Vault A case on CSGORoll (5%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hidden-vault?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hidden-vault?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hidden-vault) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hidden-vault?window=all) Price · $30.60 · 43.72 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $27.82 from 15 items Observed RTP, 30d · 81.06% · 5,141 openings, odds method Variance · 45.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 133 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 558 openings · below min 7 days · 76.15% ±20.26 4,195 openings 30 days · 81.06% ±18.29 5,141 openings since tracking started · 81.06% ±18.29 5,141 openings 0.0% 56.5% 113.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hidden-vault?window=24h) | 558 | 56.46% ±55.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hidden-vault?window=7d) | 4,195 | 76.15% ±20.3 | −1.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hidden-vault) | 5,141 | 81.06% ±18.3 | −1.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hidden-vault?window=all) | 5,141 | 81.06% ±18.3 | −1.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,199 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Pillow Punchers (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-pillow-punchers-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $4,774 6,820 coins | 8.6% | 1 | 2.6 | 0.38× | | [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 2,000 | $3,252 4,645 coins | 5.8% | 5 | 2.6 | 1.92× | | [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · legendary · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,342 3,345 coins | 8.4% | 1 | 5.2 | 0.19× | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,100 3,000 coins | 7.5% | 7 | 5.2 | 1.35× | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 500 | $1,775 2,535 coins | 12.8% | 7 | 10.4 | 0.67× | | [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) | 1 in 400 | $1,121 1,602 coins | 10.1% | 17 | 13.0 | 1.31× | | [★ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $912 1,303 coins | 8.2% | 11 | 13.0 | 0.85× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 333 | $806 1,152 coins | 8.7% | 8 | 15.6 | 0.51× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 333 | $573 818 coins | 6.2% | 19 | 15.6 | 1.22× | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $468 668 coins | 6.7% | 24 | 20.8 | 1.15× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-black-laminate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $385 550 coins | 6.9% | 23 | 26.0 | 0.88× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Blackbook (Well-Worn) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-blackbook-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $199 284 coins | 3.6% | 27 | 26.0 | 1.04× | | [AWP \| Graphite (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-graphite-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $116 166 coins | 2.1% | 29 | 26.0 | 1.12× | | [Desert Eagle \| Night (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $80.50 115 coins | 4.3% | 86 | 78.0 | 1.10× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-minimal-wear) | 95.0% | $0.02 0.03 coins | 0.1% | 4,934 | 4939.1 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Specialist Gloves | Pillow Punchers (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-pillow-punchers-factory-new) Hidden $31.24 44.63 coins $4,788 6,840 coins 153.3x 2026-11-03 23:40 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $30.60 43.72 coins $3,252 4,645 coins 106.2x 2026-11-11 05:23 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $31.24 44.63 coins $3,252 4,645 coins 104.1x 2026-11-07 15:46 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) [reecemxrgan](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/reecemxrgan) $31.24 44.63 coins $3,252 4,645 coins 104.1x 2026-11-04 10:58 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) [magignic](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/magignic) $31.24 44.63 coins $3,252 4,645 coins 104.1x 2026-11-03 15:41 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $31.24 44.63 coins $3,252 4,645 coins 104.1x 2026-11-02 21:51 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · legendary · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $31.24 44.63 coins $2,342 3,345 coins 74.95x 2026-11-03 19:06 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $31.24 44.63 coins $2,170 3,100 coins 69.46x 2026-11-08 05:51 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $31.24 44.63 coins $2,170 3,100 coins 69.46x 2026-11-07 02:21 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $31.24 44.63 coins $2,170 3,100 coins 69.46x 2026-11-05 12:50 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=hidden-vault) [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-minimal-wear) Hidden $30.60 43.72 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 10:48 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-minimal-wear) Hidden $30.60 43.72 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 10:48 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-minimal-wear) Hidden $30.60 43.72 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 10:48 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-minimal-wear) Hidden $30.60 43.72 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 10:48 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-minimal-wear) Hidden $30.60 43.72 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 10:48 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-minimal-wear) [Kickerrrrrrrr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kickerrrrrrrr) $30.60 43.72 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 10:48 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-minimal-wear) Hidden $30.60 43.72 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 10:45 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-minimal-wear) Hidden $30.60 43.72 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 10:45 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-minimal-wear) Hidden $30.60 43.72 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 10:45 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) [Kickerrrrrrrr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kickerrrrrrrr) $30.60 43.72 coins $806 1,152 coins 26.35x 2026-11-11 10:45 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $30.60 | 90.91% | 15 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $31.24 | 90.90% | 15 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.1% covert 2.4% rare 0.5% classified 0.5% industrial 1.5% consumer 95.0% best hit $4,788 (153.3x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt