--- title: "Holiday Lights case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Holiday Lights ($22.18) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 12 items with odds, observed 77.90% over 3,285 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/holiday-lights rendered: 2026-11-11T19:22Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Holiday Lights](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/holiday-lights) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Holiday Lights A case on CSGORoll (5%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/holiday-lights?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/holiday-lights?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/holiday-lights) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/holiday-lights?window=all) Price · $22.18 · 31.68 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $20.16 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 77.90% · 3,285 openings, odds method Variance · 28.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 67 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 74.81% ±51.81 413 openings 7 days · 83.01% ±20.69 2,589 openings 30 days · 77.90% ±18.37 3,285 openings since tracking started · 77.90% ±18.37 3,285 openings 22.5% 75.0% 127.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/holiday-lights?window=24h) | 413 | 74.81% ±51.8 | −0.6σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/holiday-lights?window=7d) | 2,589 | 83.01% ±20.7 | −0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/holiday-lights) | 3,285 | 77.90% ±18.4 | −1.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/holiday-lights?window=all) | 3,285 | 77.90% ±18.4 | −1.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,285 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Fnatic (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fnatic-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 200 | $1,007 1,439 coins | 25.0% | 13 | 16.4 | 0.79× | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 200 | $966 1,380 coins | 24.0% | 11 | 16.4 | 0.67× | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 200 | $629 899 coins | 15.6% | 15 | 16.4 | 0.91× | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) | 1 in 200 | $626 894 coins | 15.5% | 17 | 16.4 | 1.04× | | [AUG \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-hot-rod-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $328 468 coins | 8.1% | 15 | 16.4 | 0.91× | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $251 358 coins | 6.2% | 19 | 16.4 | 1.16× | | [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $95.20 136 coins | 2.4% | 15 | 16.4 | 0.91× | | [Sticker \| Counter Logic Gaming (Holo) \| Cologne 2016 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-counter-logic-gaming-holo-cologne-2016) | 1 in 200 | $60.72 86.75 coins | 1.5% | 16 | 16.4 | 0.97× | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $40.04 57.2 coins | 1.0% | 14 | 16.4 | 0.85× | | [MAC-10 \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-amber-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $16.89 24.13 coins | 0.4% | 6 | 16.4 | 0.37× | | [G3SG1 \| Green Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-green-apple-factory-new) | 47.5% | $0.13 0.18 coins | 0.3% | 1,584 | 1560.4 | 1.02× | | [Five-SeveN \| Sky Blue (Well-Worn) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-sky-blue-well-worn) | 47.5% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 1,560 | 1560.4 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Sticker | Fnatic (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fnatic-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $22.18 31.68 coins $1,007 1,439 coins 45.42x 2026-11-11 14:38 UTC [Sticker | Fnatic (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fnatic-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $22.18 31.68 coins $1,007 1,439 coins 45.42x 2026-11-11 06:49 UTC [Sticker | Fnatic (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fnatic-holo-katowice-2014) [Avyrian](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Avyrian) $22.18 31.68 coins $1,007 1,439 coins 45.42x 2026-11-11 04:42 UTC [Sticker | Fnatic (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fnatic-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $22.18 31.68 coins $1,007 1,439 coins 45.42x 2026-11-10 13:57 UTC [Sticker | Fnatic (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fnatic-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $22.18 31.68 coins $1,007 1,439 coins 45.42x 2026-11-09 11:49 UTC [Sticker | Fnatic (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fnatic-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $22.41 32.02 coins $1,007 1,439 coins 44.94x 2026-11-08 10:48 UTC [Sticker | Fnatic (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fnatic-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $22.41 32.02 coins $1,007 1,439 coins 44.94x 2026-11-07 17:39 UTC [Sticker | Fnatic (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fnatic-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $22.41 32.02 coins $1,007 1,439 coins 44.94x 2026-11-07 01:57 UTC [Sticker | Fnatic (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fnatic-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $22.41 32.02 coins $1,007 1,439 coins 44.94x 2026-11-06 22:10 UTC [Sticker | Fnatic (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fnatic-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $22.41 32.02 coins $1,007 1,439 coins 44.94x 2026-11-05 19:39 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=holiday-lights) [Five-SeveN | Sky Blue (Well-Worn) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-sky-blue-well-worn) Hidden $22.18 31.68 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:09 UTC [Five-SeveN | Sky Blue (Well-Worn) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-sky-blue-well-worn) Hidden $22.18 31.68 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:09 UTC [G3SG1 | Green Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-green-apple-factory-new) Hidden $22.18 31.68 coins $0.13 0.18 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:09 UTC [Five-SeveN | Sky Blue (Well-Worn) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-sky-blue-well-worn) Hidden $22.18 31.68 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:09 UTC [Five-SeveN | Sky Blue (Well-Worn) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-sky-blue-well-worn) Hidden $22.18 31.68 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:09 UTC [G3SG1 | Green Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-green-apple-factory-new) [Petrrr csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Petrrr%20csgoroll.com) $22.18 31.68 coins $0.13 0.18 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:09 UTC [Five-SeveN | Sky Blue (Well-Worn) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-sky-blue-well-worn) Hidden $22.18 31.68 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:09 UTC [Five-SeveN | Sky Blue (Well-Worn) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-sky-blue-well-worn) Hidden $22.18 31.68 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:09 UTC [Five-SeveN | Sky Blue (Well-Worn) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-sky-blue-well-worn) Hidden $22.18 31.68 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:09 UTC [Five-SeveN | Sky Blue (Well-Worn) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-sky-blue-well-worn) Hidden $22.18 31.68 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:09 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 20:11 UTC | $22.18 | 90.91% | 12 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $22.18 | 90.90% | 12 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $22.18 | 90.90% | 12 | | 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $22.41 | 90.91% | 12 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $22.42 | 90.90% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed remarkable 1.0% legendary 0.5% covert 2.0% mil spec 1.0% extraordinary 0.5% industrial 47.5% common 47.5% best hit $1,007 (45.42x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt