--- title: "Homerun case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Homerun ($3.89) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.98% from 13 items with odds, observed 89.67% over 37.5K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/homerun rendered: 2026-11-11T17:05Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Homerun](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/homerun) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Homerun A case on CSGORoll (20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/homerun?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/homerun?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/homerun) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/homerun?window=all) Price · $3.89 · 5.56 coins Advertised RTP · 90.98% · EV $3.54 from 13 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.67% · 37.5K openings, odds method Variance · 9.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 26 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 89.05% ±9.84 3,571 openings 7 days · 89.37% ±3.38 30.6K openings 30 days · 89.67% ±3.05 37.5K openings since tracking started · 89.67% ±3.05 37.5K openings 78.5% 89.0% 99.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/homerun?window=24h) | 3,571 | 89.05% ±9.84 | −0.4σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/homerun?window=7d) | 30.6K | 89.37% ±3.38 | −0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/homerun) | 37.5K | 89.67% ±3.05 | −0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/homerun?window=all) | 37.5K | 89.67% ±3.05 | −0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 37.6K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $156 223 coins | 2.2% | 15 | 18.8 | 0.80× | | [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $144 206 coins | 2.0% | 15 | 18.8 | 0.80× | | [AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 500 | $83.30 119 coins | 4.7% | 77 | 75.2 | 1.02× | | [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $75.60 108 coins | 21.3% | 372 | 376.2 | 0.99× | | [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $61.05 87.22 coins | 8.6% | 176 | 188.1 | 0.94× | | [MP9 \| Setting Sun (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $30.25 43.22 coins | 0.1% | 3 | 3.8 | 0.80× | | [AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $26.14 37.34 coins | 14.8% | 739 | 752.5 | 0.98× | | [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $23.96 34.23 coins | 13.5% | 751 | 752.5 | 1.00× | | [Dual Berettas \| Demolition (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-demolition-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $13.67 19.53 coins | 11.6% | 1,165 | 1128.7 | 1.03× | | [R8 Revolver \| Crimson Web (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $9.55 13.64 coins | 14.0% | 1,949 | 1952.6 | 1.00× | | [SG 553 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $4.07 5.81 coins | 6.9% | 2,269 | 2257.4 | 1.01× | | [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 40.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.2% | 15,016 | 15049.2 | 1.00× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 40.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.1% | 15,076 | 15049.2 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=homerun) [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $3.89 5.56 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:05 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $3.89 5.56 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:05 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $3.89 5.56 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:05 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $3.89 5.56 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:05 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) [SUQ MADIQ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/SUQ%20MADIQ) $3.89 5.56 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:05 UTC [R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $3.89 5.56 coins $9.55 13.64 coins 2.45x 2026-11-11 17:05 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $3.89 5.56 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:05 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $3.89 5.56 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:05 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $3.89 5.56 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:05 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $3.89 5.56 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:05 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $3.89 | 90.98% | 13 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $3.91 | 90.98% | 13 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.91 | 90.93% | 13 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.3% red 0.5% mil spec 5.2% classified 8.0% industrial 2.0% restricted 3.0% consumer 80.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.98 on average: an expected loss of $9.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt