---
title: "Horizon case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Horizon ($1.87) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.02% from 94 items with odds, observed 94.04% over 21.1K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/horizon
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:19Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Horizon](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/horizon)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Horizon

A case on CSGORoll (csgo), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/horizon?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/horizon?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/horizon) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/horizon?window=all)

Price · $1.87 · 2.67 coins

Advertised RTP · 91.02% · EV $1.70 from 94 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 94.04% · 21.1K openings, odds method

Variance · 14.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 82.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 85.94% ±14.00 2,845 openings

7 days · 92.60% ±5.59 18K openings

30 days · 94.04% ±5.17 21.1K openings

since tracking started · 94.04% ±5.17 21.1K openings

71.5% 86.0% 100.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/horizon?window=24h) | 2,845 | 85.94% ±14.0 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/horizon?window=7d) | 18K | 92.60% ±5.59 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/horizon) | 21.1K | 94.04% ±5.17 | +1.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/horizon?window=all) | 21.1K | 94.04% ±5.17 | +1.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 94 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 21.1K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $597 853 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $489 699 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $360 514 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $186 266 coins | 3.3% | 9 | 6.3 | 1.42× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $174 248 coins | 1.0% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.95× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $167 239 coins | 3.0% | 6 | 6.3 | 0.95× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $164 234 coins | 1.0% | 4 | 2.1 | 1.89× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $80.50 115 coins | 1.4% | 10 | 6.3 | 1.58× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $66.84 95.48 coins | 1.2% | 11 | 6.3 | 1.74× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,500 | $63.41 90.59 coins | 1.5% | 11 | 8.4 | 1.30× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $47.66 68.09 coins | 1.4% | 14 | 10.6 | 1.33× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 2,500 | $41.03 58.61 coins | 1.0% | 7 | 8.4 | 0.83× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $40.87 58.38 coins | 2.4% | 16 | 21.1 | 0.76× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-well-worn) | 1 in 2,500 | $40.21 57.44 coins | 0.9% | 13 | 8.4 | 1.54× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,000 | $40.21 57.44 coins | 1.2% | 11 | 10.6 | 1.04× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $39.73 56.76 coins | 2.3% | 17 | 21.1 | 0.80× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $39.73 56.76 coins | 2.3% | 21 | 21.1 | 0.99× |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $36.05 51.5 coins | 1.1% | 12 | 10.6 | 1.14× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $20.36 29.08 coins | 0.6% | 14 | 10.6 | 1.33× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $15.58 22.25 coins | 0.5% | 9 | 10.6 | 0.85× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $12.15 17.36 coins | 2.1% | 71 | 63.4 | 1.12× |
| [Nova \| Toy Soldier (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $9.80 14 coins | 1.7% | 68 | 63.4 | 1.07× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $8.52 12.17 coins | 0.5% | 24 | 21.1 | 1.14× |
| [MP7 \| Powercore (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-powercore-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $8.30 11.86 coins | 1.5% | 60 | 63.4 | 0.95× |
| [G3SG1 \| High Seas (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-high-seas-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $7.97 11.38 coins | 1.9% | 104 | 84.5 | 1.23× |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $7.48 10.68 coins | 0.9% | 51 | 42.2 | 1.21× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $6.38 9.11 coins | 0.7% | 42 | 42.2 | 0.99× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-battle-scarred) | 1 in 500 | $6.19 8.84 coins | 0.7% | 50 | 42.2 | 1.18× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) | 1 in 500 | $6.17 8.82 coins | 0.7% | 33 | 42.2 | 0.78× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $6.05 8.64 coins | 0.4% | 25 | 21.1 | 1.18× |
| [Glock-18 \| Warhawk (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-warhawk-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $5.77 8.24 coins | 5.1% | 322 | 316.8 | 1.02× |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-well-worn) | 1 in 250 | $4.82 6.89 coins | 1.1% | 86 | 84.5 | 1.02× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $4.81 6.87 coins | 1.1% | 67 | 84.5 | 0.79× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $4.79 6.85 coins | 2.8% | 212 | 211.2 | 1.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $4.75 6.79 coins | 1.4% | 100 | 105.6 | 0.95× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $4.69 6.7 coins | 4.1% | 317 | 316.8 | 1.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $4.56 6.52 coins | 1.1% | 92 | 84.5 | 1.09× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-paw-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $4.49 6.42 coins | 0.8% | 54 | 63.4 | 0.85× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Powercore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-powercore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $4.14 5.91 coins | 1.2% | 107 | 105.6 | 1.01× |
| [Nova \| Toy Soldier (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $4.01 5.73 coins | 3.5% | 298 | 316.8 | 0.94× |
| [MP7 \| Powercore (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-powercore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $3.87 5.53 coins | 2.3% | 224 | 211.2 | 1.06× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $3.64 5.2 coins | 2.1% | 214 | 211.2 | 1.01× |
| [Tec-9 \| Snek-9 (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-snek-9-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $3.63 5.19 coins | 3.2% | 306 | 316.8 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Traction (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-traction-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $3.58 5.12 coins | 0.8% | 81 | 84.5 | 0.96× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $2.93 4.18 coins | 1.7% | 219 | 211.2 | 1.04× |
| [G3SG1 \| High Seas (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-high-seas-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $2.79 3.98 coins | 2.5% | 324 | 316.8 | 1.02× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $1.79 2.56 coins | 1.1% | 229 | 211.2 | 1.08× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-battle-scarred) | 1 in 67 | $1.76 2.51 coins | 1.5% | 312 | 316.8 | 0.98× |
| [P90 \| Traction (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-traction-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $1.72 2.45 coins | 1.5% | 281 | 316.8 | 0.89× |
| [AUG \| Amber Slipstream (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-slipstream-factory-new) | 1 in 59 | $1.05 1.5 coins | 1.0% | 361 | 359.0 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-eco-well-worn) | 1 in 67 | $0.95 1.36 coins | 0.8% | 327 | 316.8 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Capillary (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-capillary-minimal-wear) | 1 in 59 | $0.91 1.3 coins | 0.9% | 395 | 359.0 | 1.10× |
| [MP9 \| Capillary (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-capillary-factory-new) | 1 in 59 | $0.86 1.23 coins | 0.9% | 392 | 359.0 | 1.09× |
| [MP7 \| Powercore (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-powercore-field-tested) | 1 in 59 | $0.78 1.11 coins | 0.8% | 356 | 359.0 | 0.99× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-field-tested) | 1 in 59 | $0.78 1.11 coins | 0.8% | 356 | 359.0 | 0.99× |
| [Nova \| Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-field-tested) | 1 in 59 | $0.77 1.1 coins | 0.8% | 345 | 359.0 | 0.96× |
| [G3SG1 \| High Seas (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-high-seas-field-tested) | 1 in 59 | $0.69 0.98 coins | 0.7% | 368 | 359.0 | 1.02× |
| [MP7 \| Powercore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-powercore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 59 | $0.69 0.98 coins | 0.7% | 346 | 359.0 | 0.96× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Survivalist (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-survivalist-factory-new) | 1 in 59 | $0.65 0.93 coins | 0.7% | 354 | 359.0 | 0.99× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Shred (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-shred-factory-new) | 1 in 59 | $0.64 0.92 coins | 0.6% | 361 | 359.0 | 1.01× |
| [G3SG1 \| High Seas (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-high-seas-battle-scarred) | 1 in 59 | $0.64 0.91 coins | 0.6% | 347 | 359.0 | 0.97× |
| [Nova \| Toy Soldier (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-well-worn) | 1 in 59 | $0.61 0.87 coins | 0.6% | 342 | 359.0 | 0.95× |
| [G3SG1 \| High Seas (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-high-seas-well-worn) | 1 in 59 | $0.60 0.86 coins | 0.6% | 350 | 359.0 | 0.97× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-well-worn) | 1 in 59 | $0.60 0.86 coins | 0.6% | 343 | 359.0 | 0.96× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-battle-scarred) | 1 in 59 | $0.59 0.85 coins | 0.6% | 355 | 359.0 | 0.99× |
| [Nova \| Toy Soldier (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-battle-scarred) | 1 in 59 | $0.57 0.81 coins | 0.6% | 358 | 359.0 | 1.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Warhawk (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-warhawk-minimal-wear) | 1 in 59 | $0.56 0.8 coins | 0.6% | 340 | 359.0 | 0.95× |
| [Tec-9 \| Snek-9 (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-snek-9-minimal-wear) | 1 in 59 | $0.52 0.74 coins | 0.5% | 350 | 359.0 | 0.97× |
| [P90 \| Traction (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-traction-minimal-wear) | 1 in 59 | $0.50 0.72 coins | 0.5% | 375 | 359.0 | 1.04× |
| [MP9 \| Capillary (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-capillary-minimal-wear) | 1 in 59 | $0.46 0.66 coins | 0.5% | 358 | 359.0 | 1.00× |
| [P90 \| Traction (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-traction-field-tested) | 1 in 59 | $0.45 0.64 coins | 0.4% | 347 | 359.0 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Warhawk (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-warhawk-field-tested) | 1 in 59 | $0.43 0.62 coins | 0.4% | 344 | 359.0 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Amber Slipstream (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-amber-slipstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 59 | $0.41 0.59 coins | 0.4% | 334 | 359.0 | 0.93× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Warhawk (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-warhawk-well-worn) | 1 in 59 | $0.39 0.55 coins | 0.4% | 370 | 359.0 | 1.03× |
| [AUG \| Amber Slipstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-slipstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 59 | $0.38 0.54 coins | 0.4% | 342 | 359.0 | 0.95× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Survivalist (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-survivalist-minimal-wear) | 1 in 59 | $0.38 0.54 coins | 0.4% | 345 | 359.0 | 0.96× |
| [Tec-9 \| Snek-9 (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-snek-9-field-tested) | 1 in 59 | $0.37 0.53 coins | 0.4% | 343 | 359.0 | 0.96× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Shred (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-shred-minimal-wear) | 1 in 59 | $0.36 0.52 coins | 0.4% | 354 | 359.0 | 0.99× |
| [MP9 \| Capillary (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-capillary-field-tested) | 1 in 59 | $0.34 0.49 coins | 0.3% | 366 | 359.0 | 1.02× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Shred (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-shred-field-tested) | 1 in 59 | $0.34 0.49 coins | 0.3% | 370 | 359.0 | 1.03× |
| [Glock-18 \| Warhawk (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-warhawk-field-tested) | 1 in 59 | $0.34 0.48 coins | 0.3% | 372 | 359.0 | 1.04× |
| [AUG \| Amber Slipstream (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-slipstream-field-tested) | 1 in 59 | $0.32 0.46 coins | 0.3% | 391 | 359.0 | 1.09× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Survivalist (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-survivalist-field-tested) | 1 in 59 | $0.32 0.45 coins | 0.3% | 381 | 359.0 | 1.06× |
| [P90 \| Traction (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-traction-well-worn) | 1 in 59 | $0.31 0.44 coins | 0.3% | 379 | 359.0 | 1.06× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Shred (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-shred-battle-scarred) | 1 in 48 | $0.31 0.44 coins | 0.4% | 444 | 440.4 | 1.01× |
| [P90 \| Traction (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-traction-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $0.29 0.42 coins | 0.3% | 459 | 422.4 | 1.09× |
| [AUG \| Amber Slipstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-slipstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 59 | $0.27 0.39 coins | 0.3% | 329 | 359.0 | 0.92× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Survivalist (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-survivalist-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $0.27 0.39 coins | 0.3% | 426 | 422.4 | 1.01× |
| [Glock-18 \| Warhawk (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-warhawk-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $0.27 0.39 coins | 0.3% | 392 | 422.4 | 0.93× |
| [Glock-18 \| Warhawk (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-warhawk-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $0.27 0.38 coins | 0.3% | 415 | 422.4 | 0.98× |
| [Tec-9 \| Snek-9 (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-snek-9-well-worn) | 1 in 59 | $0.25 0.36 coins | 0.3% | 345 | 359.0 | 0.96× |
| [Tec-9 \| Snek-9 (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-snek-9-battle-scarred) | 1 in 59 | $0.25 0.36 coins | 0.3% | 343 | 359.0 | 0.96× |
| [MP9 \| Capillary (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-capillary-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $0.25 0.36 coins | 0.3% | 445 | 422.4 | 1.05× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Survivalist (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-survivalist-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $0.22 0.32 coins | 0.3% | 445 | 422.4 | 1.05× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) Hidden $1.88 2.68 coins $186 266 coins 99.25x 2026-11-10 16:48 UTC

[M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) Hidden $1.88 2.68 coins $186 266 coins 99.25x 2026-11-10 14:14 UTC

[M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) [70/30 Grogg](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/70%2F30%20Grogg) $1.88 2.68 coins $186 266 coins 99.25x 2026-11-10 07:51 UTC

[M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) Hidden $1.87 2.67 coins $186 266 coins 99.63x 2026-11-09 17:35 UTC

[M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) Hidden $1.88 2.68 coins $186 266 coins 99.25x 2026-11-08 23:59 UTC

[M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) Hidden $1.85 2.65 coins $178 254 coins 95.85x 2026-11-07 13:20 UTC

[M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) [Yebek](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Yebek) $1.85 2.64 coins $178 254 coins 96.21x 2026-11-05 23:05 UTC

[M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) [Yebek](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Yebek) $1.85 2.64 coins $178 254 coins 96.21x 2026-11-05 22:44 UTC

[M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) [ViggerMcNieger](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/ViggerMcNieger) $1.86 2.66 coins $178 254 coins 95.49x 2026-11-03 05:21 UTC

[AK-47 | Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) [Vicky](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Vicky) $1.87 2.67 coins $174 248 coins 92.88x 2026-11-09 00:23 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=horizon)

[G3SG1 | High Seas (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-high-seas-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.87 2.67 coins $0.64 0.91 coins 0.34x 2026-11-11 15:16 UTC

[M4A1-S | Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) [Captain Joe Ahab](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Captain%20Joe%20Ahab) $1.87 2.67 coins $6.17 8.82 coins 3.30x 2026-11-11 15:16 UTC

[Glock-18 | Warhawk (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-warhawk-well-worn) Hidden $1.87 2.67 coins $0.27 0.39 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 15:16 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Eco (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-well-worn) Hidden $1.87 2.67 coins $0.60 0.86 coins 0.32x 2026-11-11 15:16 UTC

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Warhawk (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-warhawk-well-worn) Hidden $1.87 2.67 coins $0.39 0.55 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 15:09 UTC

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Warhawk (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-warhawk-field-tested) Hidden $1.87 2.67 coins $0.43 0.62 coins 0.23x 2026-11-11 15:09 UTC

[AUG | Amber Slipstream (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-slipstream-field-tested) Hidden $1.87 2.67 coins $0.32 0.46 coins 0.17x 2026-11-11 15:09 UTC

[MP7 | Powercore (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-powercore-minimal-wear) [st1cky is grinding...](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/st1cky%20is%20grinding...) $1.87 2.67 coins $3.87 5.53 coins 2.07x 2026-11-11 15:09 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Shred (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-shred-field-tested) Hidden $1.87 2.67 coins $0.34 0.49 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 15:07 UTC

[MP9 | Capillary (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-capillary-factory-new) Hidden $1.87 2.67 coins $0.86 1.23 coins 0.46x 2026-11-11 15:07 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC | $1.87 | 91.02% | 94 |
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $1.88 | 90.74% | 94 |
| 9 Nov, 20:11 UTC | $1.87 | 90.99% | 94 |
| 9 Nov, 14:08 UTC | $1.87 | 90.98% | 94 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $1.87 | 90.95% | 94 |
| 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $1.88 | 90.84% | 94 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $1.88 | 90.85% | 94 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $1.85 | 90.95% | 94 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $1.85 | 90.83% | 94 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $1.85 | 90.76% | 94 |
| 6 Nov, 10:50 UTC | $1.85 | 91.06% | 94 |
| 5 Nov, 10:39 UTC | $1.85 | 91.04% | 94 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $1.85 | 90.84% | 94 |
| 3 Nov, 09:32 UTC | $1.86 | 90.89% | 94 |
| 3 Nov, 07:26 UTC | $1.86 | 90.99% | 94 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.86 | 90.98% | 94 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.6% classified 4.2% pink 0.5% restricted 27.8% mil spec 61.5% Mythical 3.7% Rare 1.7% best hit $186 (99.25x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.02 on average: an expected loss of $8.98 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt