--- title: "Hot and Cold case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Hot and Cold ($188.51) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 17 items with odds, observed 86.60% over 1,691 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hot-and-cold rendered: 2026-11-11T18:13Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Hot and Cold](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hot-and-cold) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Hot and Cold A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hot-and-cold?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hot-and-cold?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hot-and-cold) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hot-and-cold?window=all) Price · $188.51 · 269 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $171.37 from 17 items Observed RTP, 30d · 86.60% · 1,691 openings, odds method Variance · 2.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 24.3% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 65.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 86.97% ±14.09 391 openings 7 days · 87.16% ±6.87 1,612 openings 30 days · 86.60% ±6.70 1,691 openings since tracking started · 86.60% ±6.70 1,691 openings 72.0% 86.8% 101.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hot-and-cold?window=24h) | 391 | 86.97% ±14.1 | −0.5σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hot-and-cold?window=7d) | 1,612 | 87.16% ±6.87 | −1.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hot-and-cold) | 1,691 | 86.60% ±6.70 | −1.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hot-and-cold?window=all) | 1,691 | 86.60% ±6.70 | −1.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,691 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,667 | $9,240 13,200 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 4,000 | $7,455 10,650 coins | 1.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 5,000 | $7,294 10,420 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 2,500 | $2,667 3,810 coins | 0.6% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Crimson Weave (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111 | $1,177 1,682 coins | 6.2% | 13 | 15.2 | 0.85× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $1,090 1,557 coins | 3.2% | 11 | 8.5 | 1.30× | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $587 838 coins | 8.6% | 34 | 42.3 | 0.80× | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 59 | $415 593 coins | 4.1% | 36 | 28.7 | 1.25× | | [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 弐 (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $409 584 coins | 20.4% | 127 | 144.6 | 0.88× | | [Glock-18 \| Synth Leaf (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-synth-leaf-well-worn) | 10.0% | $276 394 coins | 16.1% | 160 | 169.1 | 0.95× | | [★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $274 392 coins | 5.2% | 60 | 55.0 | 1.09× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $195 278 coins | 7.9% | 136 | 118.4 | 1.15× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $168 240 coins | 7.8% | 139 | 135.3 | 1.03× | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $113 161 coins | 3.6% | 88 | 93.0 | 0.95× | | [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-factory-new) | 22.0% | $51.58 73.69 coins | 6.6% | 362 | 372.0 | 0.97× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-frontside-misty-minimal-wear) | 12.5% | $50.96 72.8 coins | 3.7% | 225 | 211.4 | 1.06× | | [M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-field-tested) | 17.5% | $30.86 44.08 coins | 3.2% | 299 | 295.9 | 1.01× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $189 269 coins $2,667 3,810 coins 14.15x 2026-11-08 19:07 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-minimal-wear) Hidden $189 269 coins $1,177 1,682 coins 6.25x 2026-11-11 14:20 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-minimal-wear) Hidden $189 269 coins $1,177 1,682 coins 6.25x 2026-11-09 12:38 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-minimal-wear) Hidden $189 269 coins $1,177 1,682 coins 6.25x 2026-11-08 21:43 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-minimal-wear) Hidden $189 269 coins $1,177 1,682 coins 6.25x 2026-11-08 19:07 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-minimal-wear) Hidden $189 269 coins $1,177 1,682 coins 6.25x 2026-11-08 18:56 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $191 272 coins $1,116 1,594 coins 5.85x 2026-11-08 14:14 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $191 272 coins $1,116 1,594 coins 5.85x 2026-11-08 00:56 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) [playerman](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/playerman) $191 272 coins $1,116 1,594 coins 5.85x 2026-11-08 00:56 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) [playerman](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/playerman) $191 272 coins $1,116 1,594 coins 5.85x 2026-11-08 00:56 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=hot-and-cold) [M4A1-S | Guardian (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-factory-new) Hidden $189 269 coins $51.58 73.69 coins 0.27x 2026-11-11 18:09 UTC [M4A1-S | Bright Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-field-tested) Hidden $189 269 coins $30.86 44.08 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 18:09 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) Hidden $189 269 coins $168 240 coins 0.89x 2026-11-11 18:09 UTC [M4A1-S | Guardian (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-factory-new) [⠀ ⠀ ⠀](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%E2%A0%80%20%E2%A0%80%20%E2%A0%80) $189 269 coins $51.58 73.69 coins 0.27x 2026-11-11 18:09 UTC [Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 弐 (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-field-tested) Hidden $189 269 coins $409 584 coins 2.17x 2026-11-11 18:09 UTC [Glock-18 | Synth Leaf (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-synth-leaf-well-worn) Hidden $189 269 coins $276 394 coins 1.46x 2026-11-11 18:09 UTC [M4A1-S | Guardian (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-factory-new) Hidden $189 269 coins $51.58 73.69 coins 0.27x 2026-11-11 18:09 UTC [M4A1-S | Bright Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-field-tested) [⠀ ⠀ ⠀](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%E2%A0%80%20%E2%A0%80%20%E2%A0%80) $189 269 coins $30.86 44.08 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 18:09 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) Hidden $189 269 coins $168 240 coins 0.89x 2026-11-11 18:07 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $189 269 coins $415 593 coins 2.20x 2026-11-11 18:07 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $189 | 90.91% | 17 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $189 | 90.91% | 17 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $191 | 90.91% | 17 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed contraband 0.0% covert 28.5% extraordinary 0.9% restricted 36.0% classified 34.5% best hit $2,667 (14.15x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt