---
title: "Hypnosis case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Hypnosis ($5.49) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.88% from 18 items with odds, observed 90.11% over 6,196 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hypnosis
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:36Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Hypnosis](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hypnosis)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Hypnosis

A case on CSGORoll (30%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hypnosis?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hypnosis?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hypnosis) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hypnosis?window=all)

Price · $5.49 · 7.84 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.88% · EV $4.99 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.11% · 6,196 openings, odds method

Variance · 6.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 23.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 69.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 85.39% ±20.55 597 openings

7 days · 91.78% ±7.08 5,122 openings

30 days · 90.11% ±6.44 6,196 openings

since tracking started · 90.11% ±6.44 6,196 openings

64.0% 85.3% 106.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hypnosis?window=24h) | 597 | 85.39% ±20.6 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hypnosis?window=7d) | 5,122 | 91.78% ±7.08 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hypnosis) | 6,196 | 90.11% ±6.44 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hypnosis?window=all) | 6,196 | 90.11% ±6.44 | −0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,213 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-field-tested-2) | 1 in 2,000 | $412 589 coins | 4.1% | 3 | 3.1 | 0.97× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $174 248 coins | 1.7% | 6 | 3.1 | 1.93× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hypnotic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $132 188 coins | 4.0% | 11 | 9.3 | 1.18× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $118 169 coins | 2.4% | 4 | 6.2 | 0.64× |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-battle-scarred) | 1 in 333 | $98.70 141 coins | 5.9% | 19 | 18.6 | 1.02× |
| [MP9 \| Bulldozer (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bulldozer-field-tested) | 1 in 400 | $90.30 129 coins | 4.5% | 14 | 15.5 | 0.90× |
| [M4A1-S \| Moss Quartz (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-moss-quartz-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $66.84 95.48 coins | 1.3% | 5 | 6.2 | 0.80× |
| [Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-pink-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $20.75 29.64 coins | 4.2% | 63 | 62.1 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-imperial-dragon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $11.75 16.79 coins | 9.4% | 207 | 248.5 | 0.83× |
| [P250 \| Cartel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $8.42 12.03 coins | 11.8% | 425 | 434.9 | 0.98× |
| [P2000 \| Granite Marbleized (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-granite-marbleized-factory-new) | 10.0% | $8.26 11.8 coins | 16.6% | 628 | 621.3 | 1.01× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Night (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-night-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $5.89 8.42 coins | 9.5% | 497 | 497.0 | 1.00× |
| [P2000 \| Pulse (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-pulse-factory-new) | 10.0% | $3.93 5.61 coins | 7.9% | 625 | 621.3 | 1.01× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Panther (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-panther-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $3.68 5.26 coins | 7.4% | 614 | 621.3 | 0.99× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Marina (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $3.10 4.43 coins | 5.6% | 550 | 559.2 | 0.98× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Twist (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-twist-factory-new) | 10.0% | $1.79 2.56 coins | 3.6% | 653 | 621.3 | 1.05× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Orange Peel (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-orange-peel-field-tested) | 15.0% | $0.02 0.03 coins | 0.1% | 973 | 931.9 | 1.04× |
| [P250 \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 15.0% | $0.02 0.03 coins | 0.1% | 916 | 931.9 | 0.98× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 壱 (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-field-tested-2) Hidden $5.44 7.77 coins $429 613 coins 78.89x 2026-11-08 07:32 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 壱 (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-field-tested-2) Hidden $5.43 7.76 coins $429 613 coins 78.99x 2026-11-06 16:39 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 壱 (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-field-tested-2) Hidden $5.52 7.89 coins $412 589 coins 74.65x 2026-11-09 11:38 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=hypnosis)

[StatTrak™ P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-imperial-dragon-minimal-wear) [Terroristi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Terroristi) $5.49 7.84 coins $11.75 16.79 coins 2.14x 2026-11-11 13:35 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Orange Peel (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-orange-peel-field-tested) Hidden $5.49 7.84 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Night (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-night-factory-new) Hidden $5.49 7.84 coins $5.89 8.42 coins 1.07x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC

[P2000 | Pulse (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-pulse-factory-new) [Terroristi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Terroristi) $5.49 7.84 coins $3.93 5.61 coins 0.72x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Marina (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-field-tested) Hidden $5.49 7.84 coins $3.10 4.43 coins 0.57x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Panther (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-panther-minimal-wear) [Reettaonläski](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Reettaonl%C3%A4ski) $5.49 7.84 coins $3.68 5.26 coins 0.67x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC

[P2000 | Granite Marbleized (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-granite-marbleized-factory-new) Hidden $5.49 7.84 coins $8.26 11.8 coins 1.51x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Twist (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-twist-factory-new) Hidden $5.49 7.84 coins $1.79 2.56 coins 0.33x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Twist (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-twist-factory-new) Hidden $5.49 7.84 coins $1.79 2.56 coins 0.33x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Orange Peel (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-orange-peel-field-tested) Hidden $5.49 7.84 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $5.49 | 90.88% | 18 |
| 9 Nov, 14:08 UTC | $5.52 | 90.87% | 18 |
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $5.51 | 90.90% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $5.51 | 90.88% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $5.45 | 90.95% | 18 |
| 6 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $5.44 | 90.89% | 18 |
| 6 Nov, 10:50 UTC | $5.43 | 90.90% | 18 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $5.45 | 90.92% | 18 |
| 3 Nov, 07:26 UTC | $5.47 | 90.87% | 18 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $5.40 | 90.95% | 18 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed restricted 10.3% covert 0.1% classified 11.3% red 0.3% industrial 25.1% consumer 23.0% mil spec 30.0% best hit $429 (78.89x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.88 on average: an expected loss of $9.12 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt