--- title: "Hypnotized case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Hypnotized ($62.05) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 17 items with odds, observed 103.75% over 91 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hypnotized rendered: 2026-11-11T14:02Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Hypnotized](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hypnotized) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Hypnotized A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hypnotized?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hypnotized?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hypnotized) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hypnotized?window=all) Price · $62.05 · 88.64 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $56.41 from 17 items Observed RTP, 30d · 103.75% · 91 openings, odds method Variance · 1.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 22.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 62.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 75 openings · below min 30 days · 91 openings · below min since tracking started · 91 openings · below min 83.0% 106.7% 130.5% **Small sample.** 91 openings and 20.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hypnotized?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hypnotized?window=7d) | 75 | 107.72% ±22.1 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hypnotized) | 91 | 103.75% ±20.0 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hypnotized?window=all) | 91 | 103.75% ±20.0 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 91 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,108 1,583 coins | 2.0% | 2 | 0.1 | — | | [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $431 616 coins | 1.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 286 | $256 366 coins | 1.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $209 298 coins | 12.9% | 2 | 3.2 | 0.63× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $184 263 coins | 1.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife) | 1 in 125 | $157 224 coins | 2.2% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 77 | $128 183 coins | 3.0% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Night (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-night-well-worn) | 1 in 59 | $111 159 coins | 3.4% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.65× | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-wasteland-rebel-minimal-wear) | 14.0% | $98.70 141 coins | 24.5% | 7 | 12.7 | 0.55× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 36 | $85.40 122 coins | 4.2% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.18× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $74.20 106 coins | 5.9% | 4 | 4.1 | 0.98× | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-ocean-drive-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $72.10 103 coins | 10.0% | 4 | 7.1 | 0.56× | | [Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-field-tested) | 12.0% | $43.81 62.59 coins | 9.3% | 11 | 10.9 | 1.01× | | [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $41.28 58.97 coins | 4.4% | 8 | 5.5 | 1.47× | | [Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-minimal-wear) | 14.0% | $19.94 28.48 coins | 4.9% | 12 | 12.7 | 0.94× | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-crimson-web-well-worn) | 15.0% | $17.86 25.51 coins | 4.7% | 17 | 13.7 | 1.25× | | [MP9 \| Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hypnotic-factory-new) | 15.4% | $12.42 17.75 coins | 3.4% | 20 | 14.0 | 1.43× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $64.67 92.39 coins $1,142 1,632 coins 17.66x 2026-11-07 02:05 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [ViggerMcNieger](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/ViggerMcNieger) $64.67 92.39 coins $1,142 1,632 coins 17.66x 2026-11-06 00:15 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=hypnotized) [MP9 | Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hypnotic-factory-new) Hidden $62.05 88.64 coins $12.42 17.75 coins 0.20x 2026-11-09 13:30 UTC [Dual Berettas | Cobra Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-field-tested) Hidden $62.05 88.64 coins $43.81 62.59 coins 0.71x 2026-11-09 13:30 UTC [AWP | Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) Hidden $62.05 88.64 coins $41.28 58.97 coins 0.67x 2026-11-09 13:30 UTC [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-crimson-web-well-worn) [Tiny Tim.CsgoRoll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Tiny%20Tim.CsgoRoll.com) $62.05 88.64 coins $17.86 25.51 coins 0.29x 2026-11-09 13:30 UTC [Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-minimal-wear) Hidden $64.67 92.39 coins $20.99 29.98 coins 0.32x 2026-11-08 10:31 UTC [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-crimson-web-well-worn) Hidden $64.67 92.39 coins $18.84 26.91 coins 0.29x 2026-11-08 10:31 UTC [MP9 | Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hypnotic-factory-new) Hidden $64.67 92.39 coins $13.49 19.27 coins 0.21x 2026-11-08 10:31 UTC [AWP | Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) Hidden $64.67 92.39 coins $42.16 60.23 coins 0.65x 2026-11-08 10:31 UTC [Dual Berettas | Cobra Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-field-tested) Hidden $64.67 92.39 coins $44.12 63.03 coins 0.68x 2026-11-08 10:31 UTC [MP9 | Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hypnotic-factory-new) [gifu](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/gifu) $64.67 92.39 coins $13.49 19.27 coins 0.21x 2026-11-08 10:31 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $62.05 | 90.91% | 17 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $62.71 | 90.91% | 17 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $64.67 | 90.91% | 17 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 43.6% classified 12.0% industrial 14.0% restricted 30.4% best hit $1,142 (17.66x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt