---
title: "Hypothermia case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Hypothermia ($183.43) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 21 items with odds, observed 88.46% over 188 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hypothermia
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:04Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Hypothermia](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hypothermia)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Hypothermia

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hypothermia?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hypothermia?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hypothermia) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hypothermia?window=all)

Price · $183.43 · 262 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $166.75 from 21 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.46% · 188 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 19.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 81.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 13 openings · below min

7 days · 83.11% ±16.22 155 openings

30 days · 88.46% ±14.74 188 openings

since tracking started · 88.46% ±14.74 188 openings

11.0% 67.3% 123.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hypothermia?window=24h) | 13 | 67.10% ±55.5 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hypothermia?window=7d) | 155 | 83.11% ±16.2 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hypothermia) | 188 | 88.46% ±14.7 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hypothermia?window=all) | 188 | 88.46% ±14.7 | −0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 188 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) | 1 in 250 | $1,583 2,262 coins | 3.8% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 333 | $1,544 2,206 coins | 2.8% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $883 1,262 coins | 2.6% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-well-worn) | 1 in 154 | $878 1,254 coins | 3.4% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.82× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) | 1 in 143 | $816 1,165 coins | 3.4% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.76× |
| [★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-well-worn) | 1 in 125 | $748 1,068 coins | 3.6% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.66× |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 182 | $659 942 coins | 2.2% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 133 | $557 795 coins | 2.5% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.71× |
| [AK-47 \| Jet Set (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jet-set-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $342 488 coins | 10.2% | 10 | 9.4 | 1.06× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hand-cannon-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $316 452 coins | 6.6% | 7 | 6.6 | 1.06× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $291 416 coins | 3.5% | 2 | 3.8 | 0.53× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $259 370 coins | 4.7% | 9 | 5.6 | 1.60× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $168 240 coins | 1.0% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.60× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $162 231 coins | 7.8% | 17 | 15.0 | 1.13× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hypnotic-factory-new) | 10.0% | $134 192 coins | 8.1% | 16 | 18.8 | 0.85× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 12.0% | $121 173 coins | 8.7% | 27 | 22.6 | 1.20× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-overprint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $115 164 coins | 2.8% | 5 | 7.5 | 0.66× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 19.4% | $111 159 coins | 12.9% | 33 | 36.4 | 0.91× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $85.40 122 coins | 3.6% | 9 | 13.2 | 0.68× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-autotronic-well-worn) | 1 in 15 | $77.70 111 coins | 3.0% | 17 | 12.2 | 1.39× |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Mangrove (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-mangrove-minimal-wear) | 14.0% | $33.42 47.74 coins | 2.8% | 27 | 26.3 | 1.03× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) Hidden $185 264 coins $1,676 2,394 coins 9.07x 2026-11-02 23:33 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) Hidden $183 262 coins $1,544 2,206 coins 8.42x 2026-11-09 15:13 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) Hidden $185 264 coins $1,509 2,156 coins 8.17x 2026-11-03 18:54 UTC

[AWP | Desert Hydra (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-well-worn) [LongKoala](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/LongKoala) $185 264 coins $860 1,229 coins 4.66x 2026-11-06 05:49 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) Hidden $185 264 coins $831 1,187 coins 4.50x 2026-11-06 14:07 UTC

[★ Karambit | Autotronic (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-well-worn) Hidden $185 264 coins $780 1,114 coins 4.22x 2026-11-04 01:16 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) Hidden $185 264 coins $582 831 coins 3.15x 2026-11-05 22:58 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=hypothermia)

[M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) Hidden $183 262 coins $111 159 coins 0.61x 2026-11-11 16:15 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-minimal-wear) Hidden $183 262 coins $162 231 coins 0.88x 2026-11-11 16:08 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hypnotic-factory-new) [戏小阳](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%E6%88%8F%E5%B0%8F%E9%98%B3) $183 262 coins $134 192 coins 0.73x 2026-11-11 08:45 UTC

[AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-factory-new) Hidden $183 262 coins $121 173 coins 0.66x 2026-11-11 06:36 UTC

[★ Hand Wraps | Overprint (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-overprint-minimal-wear) [Baduci](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Baduci) $183 262 coins $115 164 coins 0.63x 2026-11-11 06:12 UTC

[M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) Hidden $183 262 coins $111 159 coins 0.61x 2026-11-11 05:46 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hypnotic-factory-new) Hidden $183 262 coins $134 192 coins 0.73x 2026-11-11 03:26 UTC

[★ Hydra Gloves | Mangrove (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-mangrove-minimal-wear) Hidden $183 262 coins $33.42 47.74 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 00:43 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hypnotic-factory-new) Hidden $183 262 coins $134 192 coins 0.73x 2026-11-10 23:32 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Autotronic (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-autotronic-well-worn) Hidden $183 262 coins $77.70 111 coins 0.42x 2026-11-10 22:42 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $183 | 90.91% | 21 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $184 | 90.91% | 21 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $185 | 90.91% | 21 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 62.0% rare 1.5% classified 15.0% restricted 3.5% extraordinary 18.0% best hit $1,676 (9.07x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt