---
title: "Ice case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Ice ($364.28) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 17 items with odds, observed 83.55% over 120 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ice
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Ice](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ice)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Ice

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ice?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ice?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ice) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ice?window=all)

Price · $364.28 · 520 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $331.16 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 83.55% · 120 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 25.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 88.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 21 openings · below min

7 days · 79.86% ±22.47 104 openings

30 days · 83.55% ±20.91 120 openings

since tracking started · 83.55% ±20.91 120 openings

8.0% 58.5% 109.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ice?window=24h) | 21 | 58.43% ±50.0 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ice?window=7d) | 104 | 79.86% ±22.5 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ice) | 120 | 83.55% ±20.9 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ice?window=all) | 120 | 83.55% ±20.9 | −0.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 120 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 1,000 | $5,978 8,540 coins | 1.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-well-worn) | 1 in 125 | $2,888 4,125 coins | 7.0% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-battle-scarred) | 1 in 77 | $1,865 2,665 coins | 7.3% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.28× |
| [AWP \| The Prince (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-minimal-wear) | 1 in 286 | $1,809 2,585 coins | 1.9% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 400 | $1,576 2,251 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 200 | $1,546 2,209 coins | 2.3% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 59 | $1,037 1,482 coins | 5.3% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.47× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Smoke Out (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-smoke-out-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $939 1,342 coins | 9.9% | 3 | 4.2 | 0.71× |
| [Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $799 1,142 coins | 6.8% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.60× |
| [AWP \| BOOM (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-factory-new) | 14.0% | $344 492 coins | 14.6% | 18 | 16.8 | 1.07× |
| [Sticker \| Crown (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-crown-foil) | 1 in 17 | $329 470 coins | 6.0% | 11 | 7.2 | 1.53× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $310 443 coins | 4.2% | 8 | 5.4 | 1.48× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Duelist (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-duelist-well-worn) | 15.4% | $244 348 coins | 11.3% | 22 | 18.5 | 1.19× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 12.0% | $193 276 coins | 7.0% | 17 | 14.4 | 1.18× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Field-Tested) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $155 221 coins | 3.6% | 11 | 9.4 | 1.18× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-urban-masked-factory-new) | 15.0% | $129 184 coins | 5.8% | 13 | 18.0 | 0.72× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-stained-minimal-wear) | 14.0% | $92.40 132 coins | 3.9% | 10 | 16.8 | 0.60× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-battle-scarred) [Tokzeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Tokzeen) $375 535 coins $1,949 2,785 coins 5.20x 2026-11-03 06:40 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-battle-scarred) Hidden $364 520 coins $1,865 2,665 coins 5.12x 2026-11-10 09:05 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $375 535 coins $1,076 1,537 coins 2.87x 2026-11-08 02:29 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $375 535 coins $1,076 1,537 coins 2.87x 2026-11-07 14:31 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $375 535 coins $1,076 1,537 coins 2.87x 2026-11-05 00:05 UTC

[★ Moto Gloves | Smoke Out (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-smoke-out-factory-new) Hidden $364 520 coins $939 1,342 coins 2.58x 2026-11-10 08:00 UTC

[★ Moto Gloves | Smoke Out (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-smoke-out-factory-new) Hidden $375 535 coins $939 1,342 coins 2.51x 2026-11-06 22:25 UTC

[★ Moto Gloves | Smoke Out (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-smoke-out-factory-new) Hidden $375 535 coins $939 1,342 coins 2.51x 2026-11-03 09:44 UTC

[Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) [✪ Endlich 12](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%E2%9C%AA%20Endlich%2012) $375 535 coins $830 1,186 coins 2.22x 2026-11-06 01:42 UTC

[Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) Hidden $375 535 coins $830 1,186 coins 2.22x 2026-11-03 06:40 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=ice)

[★ Shadow Daggers | Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-urban-masked-factory-new) Hidden $364 520 coins $129 184 coins 0.35x 2026-11-11 13:47 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) Hidden $364 520 coins $193 276 coins 0.53x 2026-11-11 08:56 UTC

[★ Classic Knife | Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-stained-minimal-wear) Hidden $364 520 coins $92.40 132 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 05:49 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) Hidden $364 520 coins $193 276 coins 0.53x 2026-11-11 02:07 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) Hidden $364 520 coins $193 276 coins 0.53x 2026-11-11 01:02 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Omega (Field-Tested) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-field-tested) [Elturados](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Elturados) $364 520 coins $155 221 coins 0.42x 2026-11-11 00:47 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Duelist (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-duelist-well-worn) Hidden $364 520 coins $244 348 coins 0.67x 2026-11-10 22:53 UTC

[Sticker | Crown (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-crown-foil) [IMIGHTSTABYOU](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/IMIGHTSTABYOU) $364 520 coins $329 470 coins 0.90x 2026-11-10 21:14 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-urban-masked-factory-new) [IMIGHTSTABYOU](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/IMIGHTSTABYOU) $364 520 coins $129 184 coins 0.35x 2026-11-10 21:14 UTC

[Sticker | Crown (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-crown-foil) Hidden $364 520 coins $329 470 coins 0.90x 2026-11-10 20:45 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $364 | 90.91% | 17 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $375 | 90.91% | 17 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 46.7% extraordinary 10.1% classified 14.0% exotic 6.0% restricted 15.4% rare 7.8% best hit $1,949 (5.20x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt