--- title: "Illumination case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Illumination ($22.11) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 7 items with odds, observed 95.63% over 739 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/illumination rendered: 2026-11-11T15:28Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Illumination](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/illumination) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Illumination A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/illumination?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/illumination?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/illumination) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/illumination?window=all) Price · $22.11 · 31.58 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $20.10 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 95.63% · 739 openings, odds method Variance · 1.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 22.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 77.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 48 openings · below min 7 days · 95.63% ±8.95 543 openings 30 days · 95.63% ±7.66 739 openings since tracking started · 95.63% ±7.66 739 openings 59.5% 90.5% 121.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/illumination?window=24h) | 48 | 90.58% ±30.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/illumination?window=7d) | 543 | 95.63% ±8.95 | +1.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/illumination) | 739 | 95.63% ±7.66 | +1.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/illumination?window=all) | 739 | 95.63% ±7.66 | +1.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 743 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [MP9 \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $192 274 coins | 9.5% | 10 | 7.4 | 1.35× | | [Glock-18 \| Brass (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-brass-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $102 146 coins | 7.6% | 14 | 11.1 | 1.26× | | [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $51.58 73.69 coins | 12.8% | 32 | 37.2 | 0.86× | | [AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $32.87 46.96 coins | 24.5% | 122 | 111.5 | 1.09× | | [UMP-45 \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) | 57.5% | $15.88 22.69 coins | 45.4% | 420 | 427.2 | 0.98× | | [P250 \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 10.0% | $0.02 0.03 coins | 0.0% | 80 | 74.3 | 1.08× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 10.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 65 | 74.3 | 0.87× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=illumination) [P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $22.11 31.58 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:03 UTC [UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $22.11 31.58 coins $15.88 22.69 coins 0.72x 2026-11-11 15:03 UTC [UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) [Pvpbotx](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Pvpbotx) $22.11 31.58 coins $15.88 22.69 coins 0.72x 2026-11-11 15:03 UTC [UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) [edvin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/edvin) $22.11 31.58 coins $15.88 22.69 coins 0.72x 2026-11-11 15:03 UTC [P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $22.11 31.58 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:45 UTC [UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) [Veckans](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Veckans) $22.11 31.58 coins $15.88 22.69 coins 0.72x 2026-11-11 09:45 UTC [AWP | Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-minimal-wear) Hidden $22.11 31.58 coins $32.87 46.96 coins 1.49x 2026-11-11 09:45 UTC [UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $22.11 31.58 coins $15.88 22.69 coins 0.72x 2026-11-11 09:45 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $22.11 31.58 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:43 UTC [M4A1-S | Guardian (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-factory-new) Hidden $22.11 31.58 coins $51.58 73.69 coins 2.33x 2026-11-11 09:43 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $22.11 | 90.91% | 7 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $22.11 | 90.91% | 7 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $21.89 | 90.91% | 7 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $21.94 | 90.90% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed mil spec 58.5% restricted 16.5% classified 5.0% consumer 20.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt