--- title: "Illusion case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Illusion ($26.53) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 11 items with odds, observed 88.17% over 399 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/illusion rendered: 2026-11-11T14:42Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Illusion](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/illusion) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Illusion A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/illusion?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/illusion?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/illusion) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/illusion?window=all) Price · $26.53 · 37.9 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $24.12 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.17% · 399 openings, odds method Variance · 1.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 12.4% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 63.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 31 openings · below min 7 days · 88.94% ±14.54 308 openings 30 days · 88.17% ±12.75 399 openings since tracking started · 88.17% ±12.75 399 openings 28.0% 75.3% 122.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/illusion?window=24h) | 31 | 75.24% ±46.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/illusion?window=7d) | 308 | 88.94% ±14.5 | −0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/illusion) | 399 | 88.17% ±12.8 | −0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/illusion?window=all) | 399 | 88.17% ±12.8 | −0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 399 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $167 239 coins | 2.1% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.67× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $162 231 coins | 6.7% | 2 | 4.0 | 0.50× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $119 170 coins | 2.5% | 4 | 2.0 | 2.01× | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $113 161 coins | 37.4% | 30 | 31.9 | 0.94× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Big Game (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-big-game-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $112 160 coins | 0.5% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $78.40 112 coins | 8.1% | 8 | 10.0 | 0.80× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-rat-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $36.93 52.75 coins | 6.1% | 12 | 16.0 | 0.75× | | [Five-SeveN \| Contractor (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-contractor-factory-new) | 20.0% | $26.87 38.39 coins | 22.3% | 85 | 79.8 | 1.07× | | [CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-well-worn) | 12.0% | $12.78 18.26 coins | 6.4% | 39 | 47.9 | 0.81× | | [Dual Berettas \| Black Limba (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-black-limba-field-tested) | 25.0% | $5.73 8.18 coins | 5.9% | 108 | 99.8 | 1.08× | | [P250 \| Bone Mask (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bone-mask-field-tested) | 26.6% | $1.88 2.68 coins | 2.1% | 108 | 106.1 | 1.02× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=illusion) [Dual Berettas | Black Limba (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-black-limba-field-tested) Hidden $26.53 37.9 coins $5.73 8.18 coins 0.22x 2026-11-11 10:05 UTC [P250 | Bone Mask (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bone-mask-field-tested) Hidden $26.53 37.9 coins $1.88 2.68 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 10:05 UTC [Dual Berettas | Black Limba (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-black-limba-field-tested) Hidden $26.53 37.9 coins $5.73 8.18 coins 0.22x 2026-11-11 10:05 UTC [CZ75-Auto | The Fuschia Is Now (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-well-worn) Hidden $26.53 37.9 coins $12.78 18.26 coins 0.48x 2026-11-11 10:05 UTC [CZ75-Auto | The Fuschia Is Now (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-well-worn) [Cousin of po](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Cousin%20of%20po) $26.53 37.9 coins $12.78 18.26 coins 0.48x 2026-11-11 10:05 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) Hidden $26.53 37.9 coins $113 161 coins 4.25x 2026-11-11 10:05 UTC [Dual Berettas | Black Limba (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-black-limba-field-tested) Hidden $26.53 37.9 coins $5.73 8.18 coins 0.22x 2026-11-11 08:58 UTC [P250 | Bone Mask (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bone-mask-field-tested) [Puppy Deel](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Puppy%20Deel) $26.53 37.9 coins $1.88 2.68 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 08:58 UTC [CZ75-Auto | The Fuschia Is Now (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-well-worn) [M1koGooD](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/M1koGooD) $26.53 37.9 coins $12.78 18.26 coins 0.48x 2026-11-11 08:58 UTC [Dual Berettas | Black Limba (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-black-limba-field-tested) Hidden $26.53 37.9 coins $5.73 8.18 coins 0.22x 2026-11-11 05:43 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $26.53 | 90.91% | 11 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $27.68 | 90.91% | 11 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $27.98 | 90.91% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 12.3% extraordinary 0.1% restricted 4.0% consumer 46.6% classified 12.0% mil spec 25.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt