--- title: "Imbalanced case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Imbalanced ($1,259.75) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 14 items with odds, observed 133.26% over 24 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/imbalanced rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Imbalanced](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/imbalanced) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Imbalanced A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/imbalanced?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/imbalanced?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/imbalanced) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/imbalanced?window=all) Price · $1,259.75 · 1,800 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $1,145.23 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 133.26% · 24 openings, odds method Variance · 1.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 30.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 67.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 24 openings · below min 30 days · 24 openings · below min since tracking started · 24 openings · below min 90.0% 133.3% 176.5% **Small sample.** 24 openings and 7.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/imbalanced?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/imbalanced?window=7d) | 24 | 133.26% ±42.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/imbalanced) | 24 | 133.26% ±42.6 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/imbalanced?window=all) | 24 | 133.26% ±42.6 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 24 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Reason Gaming \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-katowice-2014) | 15.0% | $3,164 4,520 coins | 41.4% | 5 | 3.6 | 1.39× | | [Sticker \| Titan \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-katowice-2014) | 15.0% | $3,136 4,480 coins | 41.1% | 7 | 3.6 | 1.94× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $1,865 2,665 coins | 4.1% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $911 1,302 coins | 2.0% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $605 864 coins | 4.0% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× | | [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $430 614 coins | 2.8% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.11× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 40 | $346 494 coins | 0.8% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $162 232 coins | 1.1% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $120 171 coins | 0.8% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $113 161 coins | 0.2% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $95.90 137 coins | 0.6% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.11× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $86.80 124 coins | 0.6% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-ultraviolet-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $74.90 107 coins | 0.5% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.11× | | [Souvenir AWP \| Pit Viper (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-pit-viper-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $16.93 24.18 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Sticker | Reason Gaming | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-katowice-2014) Hidden $1,268 1,812 coins $3,164 4,520 coins 2.50x 2026-11-04 21:50 UTC [Sticker | Reason Gaming | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-katowice-2014) Hidden $1,268 1,812 coins $3,164 4,520 coins 2.50x 2026-11-04 21:49 UTC [Sticker | Reason Gaming | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-katowice-2014) Hidden $1,268 1,812 coins $3,164 4,520 coins 2.50x 2026-11-04 21:48 UTC [Sticker | Reason Gaming | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-katowice-2014) Hidden $1,268 1,812 coins $3,164 4,520 coins 2.50x 2026-11-04 21:48 UTC [Sticker | Reason Gaming | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-katowice-2014) Hidden $1,268 1,812 coins $3,164 4,520 coins 2.50x 2026-11-04 21:48 UTC [Sticker | Titan | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-katowice-2014) [tashud](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/tashud) $1,268 1,812 coins $3,143 4,490 coins 2.48x 2026-11-04 21:50 UTC [Sticker | Titan | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-katowice-2014) Hidden $1,268 1,812 coins $3,143 4,490 coins 2.48x 2026-11-04 21:49 UTC [Sticker | Titan | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-katowice-2014) [tashud](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/tashud) $1,268 1,812 coins $3,143 4,490 coins 2.48x 2026-11-04 21:48 UTC [Sticker | Titan | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-katowice-2014) [tashud](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/tashud) $1,268 1,812 coins $3,143 4,490 coins 2.48x 2026-11-04 21:47 UTC [Sticker | Titan | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-katowice-2014) Hidden $1,268 1,812 coins $3,143 4,490 coins 2.48x 2026-11-04 21:47 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=imbalanced) [★ Sport Gloves | Omega (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-battle-scarred) Hidden $1,268 1,812 coins $122 174 coins 0.10x 2026-11-04 21:50 UTC [AK-47 | Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) Hidden $1,268 1,812 coins $165 235 coins 0.13x 2026-11-04 21:50 UTC [Sticker | Reason Gaming | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-katowice-2014) Hidden $1,268 1,812 coins $3,164 4,520 coins 2.50x 2026-11-04 21:50 UTC [Sticker | Titan | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-katowice-2014) [tashud](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/tashud) $1,268 1,812 coins $3,143 4,490 coins 2.48x 2026-11-04 21:50 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $1,268 1,812 coins $86.80 124 coins 0.07x 2026-11-04 21:49 UTC [Sticker | Reason Gaming | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-katowice-2014) Hidden $1,268 1,812 coins $3,164 4,520 coins 2.50x 2026-11-04 21:49 UTC [Sticker | Titan | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-katowice-2014) Hidden $1,268 1,812 coins $3,143 4,490 coins 2.48x 2026-11-04 21:49 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Ultraviolet (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-ultraviolet-well-worn) [tashud](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/tashud) $1,268 1,812 coins $72.10 103 coins 0.06x 2026-11-04 21:49 UTC [Sticker | Reason Gaming | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-katowice-2014) Hidden $1,268 1,812 coins $3,164 4,520 coins 2.50x 2026-11-04 21:48 UTC [Sticker | Reason Gaming | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-katowice-2014) Hidden $1,268 1,812 coins $3,164 4,520 coins 2.50x 2026-11-04 21:48 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $1,260 | 90.91% | 14 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $1,260 | 90.91% | 14 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1,268 | 90.91% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed high 30.0% extraordinary 5.0% epic 2.5% classified 7.5% restricted 15.0% covert 40.0% best hit $3,164 (2.50x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt