---
title: "Impact case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Impact ($99.78) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 14 items with odds, observed 91.24% over 714 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/impact
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Impact](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/impact)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Impact

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/impact?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/impact?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/impact) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/impact?window=all)

Price · $99.78 · 143 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $90.70 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 91.24% · 714 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 23.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 76.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 58 openings · below min

7 days · 91.68% ±10.76 468 openings

30 days · 91.24% ±8.72 714 openings

since tracking started · 91.24% ±8.72 714 openings

35.5% 69.3% 103.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/impact?window=24h) | 58 | 66.33% ±30.4 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/impact?window=7d) | 468 | 91.68% ±10.8 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/impact) | 714 | 91.24% ±8.72 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/impact?window=all) | 714 | 91.24% ±8.72 | +0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 714 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $768 1,097 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-well-worn) | 1 in 400 | $587 838 coins | 1.6% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 弐 (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $409 584 coins | 16.4% | 22 | 26.0 | 0.85× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $360 514 coins | 2.0% | 2 | 3.6 | 0.56× |
| [★ Karambit \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $349 499 coins | 4.2% | 12 | 7.9 | 1.53× |
| [SSG 08 \| Sea Calico (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sea-calico-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $283 404 coins | 24.9% | 61 | 57.1 | 1.07× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 10.0% | $235 336 coins | 25.9% | 76 | 71.4 | 1.06× |
| [P90 \| Death by Kitty (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-by-kitty-field-tested) | 12.6% | $78.40 112 coins | 10.9% | 79 | 90.0 | 0.88× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Night Stripe (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-night-stripe-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $49.33 70.47 coins | 4.4% | 59 | 57.1 | 1.03× |
| [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $28.72 41.03 coins | 3.2% | 78 | 71.4 | 1.09× |
| [Sawed-Off \| First Class (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-first-class-battle-scarred) | 12.9% | $27.45 39.21 coins | 3.9% | 95 | 92.1 | 1.03× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $12.11 17.3 coins | 1.3% | 65 | 71.4 | 0.91× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-bloodsport-field-tested) | 11.0% | $9.00 12.85 coins | 1.1% | 78 | 78.5 | 0.99× |
| [Negev \| Terrain (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-terrain-factory-new) | 12.0% | $0.48 0.69 coins | 0.1% | 86 | 85.7 | 1.00× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-well-worn) [MDSGaming](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/MDSGaming) $99.44 142 coins $536 765 coins 5.39x 2026-11-05 22:13 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-well-worn) [Jole](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jole) $99.43 142 coins $536 765 coins 5.39x 2026-11-05 01:22 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=impact)

[CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-minimal-wear) Hidden $99.78 143 coins $12.11 17.3 coins 0.12x 2026-11-11 12:37 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-minimal-wear) Hidden $99.78 143 coins $12.11 17.3 coins 0.12x 2026-11-11 12:37 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-minimal-wear) Hidden $99.78 143 coins $12.11 17.3 coins 0.12x 2026-11-11 12:37 UTC

[M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-factory-new) [ChrasťoušekS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Chras%C5%A5ou%C5%A1ekS) $99.78 143 coins $235 336 coins 2.36x 2026-11-11 12:37 UTC

[Negev | Terrain (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-terrain-factory-new) Hidden $99.78 143 coins $0.48 0.69 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:35 UTC

[P90 | Death by Kitty (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-by-kitty-field-tested) [ChrasťoušekS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Chras%C5%A5ou%C5%A1ekS) $99.78 143 coins $78.40 112 coins 0.79x 2026-11-11 12:35 UTC

[M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-factory-new) Hidden $99.78 143 coins $235 336 coins 2.36x 2026-11-11 12:28 UTC

[SSG 08 | Sea Calico (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sea-calico-minimal-wear) [Jhon csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jhon%20csgoroll.com) $99.78 143 coins $283 404 coins 2.83x 2026-11-11 12:28 UTC

[M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-factory-new) Hidden $99.78 143 coins $235 336 coins 2.36x 2026-11-11 12:26 UTC

[Sawed-Off | First Class (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-first-class-battle-scarred) [Jhon csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jhon%20csgoroll.com) $99.78 143 coins $27.45 39.21 coins 0.28x 2026-11-11 12:26 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC | $99.78 | 90.91% | 14 |
| 10 Nov, 08:16 UTC | $99.78 | 90.91% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $99.78 | 90.91% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $99.70 | 90.91% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $99.44 | 90.91% | 14 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $99.44 | 90.91% | 14 |
| 5 Nov, 10:39 UTC | $99.44 | 90.91% | 14 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $99.43 | 90.91% | 14 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 32.2% extraordinary 0.3% restricted 11.6% classified 31.0% mil spec 24.9% best hit $536 (5.39x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt