--- title: "Incision case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Incision ($15.62) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.92% from 12 items with odds, observed 91.50% over 14.7K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/incision rendered: 2026-11-11T18:54Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Incision](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/incision) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Incision A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/incision?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/incision?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/incision) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/incision?window=all) Price · $15.62 · 22.32 coins Advertised RTP · 90.92% · EV $14.21 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.50% · 14.7K openings, odds method Variance · 2.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 18.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 72.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 89.07% ±7.50 1,623 openings 7 days · 91.86% ±2.93 10.8K openings 30 days · 91.50% ±2.51 14.7K openings since tracking started · 91.50% ±2.51 14.7K openings 81.0% 89.0% 97.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/incision?window=24h) | 1,623 | 89.07% ±7.50 | −0.5σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/incision?window=7d) | 10.8K | 91.86% ±2.93 | +0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/incision) | 14.7K | 91.50% ±2.51 | +0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/incision?window=all) | 14.7K | 91.50% ±2.51 | +0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14.7K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,288 1,840 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× | | [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-well-worn) | 1 in 400 | $207 296 coins | 3.6% | 35 | 36.8 | 0.95× | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-stained-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $114 163 coins | 0.8% | 13 | 14.7 | 0.88× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-autotronic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 156 | $77.70 111 coins | 3.5% | 107 | 94.1 | 1.14× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-blue-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $66.61 95.15 coins | 9.4% | 327 | 294.2 | 1.11× | | [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $49.06 70.09 coins | 17.3% | 748 | 735.4 | 1.02× | | [P250 \| Digital Architect (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-digital-architect-field-tested) | 10.0% | $39.56 56.52 coins | 27.9% | 1,439 | 1470.8 | 0.98× | | [USP-S \| Road Rash (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $27.41 39.16 coins | 19.3% | 1,506 | 1470.8 | 1.02× | | [MP7 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) | 15.0% | $9.84 14.06 coins | 10.4% | 2,206 | 2206.2 | 1.00× | | [Sticker \| Watermelon Buttery (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-watermelon-buttery-holo) | 17.0% | $3.14 4.48 coins | 3.8% | 2,551 | 2500.4 | 1.02× | | [MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $1.72 2.45 coins | 2.4% | 2,899 | 2941.6 | 0.99× | | [SSG 08 \| Acid Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-acid-fade-factory-new) | 20.0% | $0.56 0.8 coins | 0.8% | 2,877 | 2941.6 | 0.98× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=incision) [SSG 08 | Acid Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-acid-fade-factory-new) Hidden $15.62 22.32 coins $0.56 0.8 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:53 UTC [USP-S | Road Rash (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-battle-scarred) [Itz-\_-Goof](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Itz-_-Goof) $15.62 22.32 coins $27.41 39.16 coins 1.75x 2026-11-11 18:53 UTC [MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-minimal-wear) Hidden $15.62 22.32 coins $1.72 2.45 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 18:52 UTC [MP7 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) [Itz-\_-Goof](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Itz-_-Goof) $15.62 22.32 coins $9.84 14.06 coins 0.63x 2026-11-11 18:52 UTC [Sticker | Watermelon Buttery (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-watermelon-buttery-holo) Hidden $15.62 22.32 coins $3.14 4.48 coins 0.20x 2026-11-11 18:52 UTC [MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-minimal-wear) Hidden $15.62 22.32 coins $1.72 2.45 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 18:52 UTC [SSG 08 | Acid Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-acid-fade-factory-new) [Mitch Trubisky](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Mitch%20Trubisky) $15.62 22.32 coins $0.56 0.8 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:52 UTC [P250 | Digital Architect (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-digital-architect-field-tested) Hidden $15.62 22.32 coins $39.56 56.52 coins 2.53x 2026-11-11 18:52 UTC [SSG 08 | Acid Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-acid-fade-factory-new) Hidden $15.62 22.32 coins $0.56 0.8 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:52 UTC [MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-minimal-wear) Hidden $15.62 22.32 coins $1.72 2.45 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 18:52 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $15.62 | 90.92% | 12 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $15.64 | 90.92% | 12 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $15.00 | 90.90% | 12 | | 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $14.99 | 90.91% | 12 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $14.99 | 90.91% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 3.0% classified 5.0% restricted 55.0% remarkable 17.0% mil spec 20.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.92 on average: an expected loss of $9.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt