--- title: "Incognito case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Incognito ($9.98) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.94% from 16 items with odds, observed 90.44% over 3,716 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/incognito rendered: 2026-11-11T16:05Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Incognito](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/incognito) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Incognito A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/incognito?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/incognito?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/incognito) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/incognito?window=all) Price · $9.98 · 14.25 coins Advertised RTP · 90.94% · EV $9.07 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.44% · 3,716 openings, odds method Variance · 4.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 16 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 81.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 94.75% ±24.44 312 openings 7 days · 91.04% ±7.56 3,255 openings 30 days · 90.44% ±7.07 3,716 openings since tracking started · 90.44% ±7.07 3,716 openings 69.5% 94.8% 120.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/incognito?window=24h) | 312 | 94.75% ±24.4 | +0.3σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/incognito?window=7d) | 3,255 | 91.04% ±7.56 | +0.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/incognito) | 3,716 | 90.44% ±7.07 | −0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/incognito?window=all) | 3,716 | 90.44% ±7.07 | −0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,716 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Dual Berettas \| Duelist (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-duelist-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $219 313 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-kill-confirmed-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $155 221 coins | 8.5% | 22 | 18.6 | 1.18× | | [Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-nuclear-threat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $124 177 coins | 9.6% | 22 | 26.0 | 0.85× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-scorched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $116 166 coins | 0.6% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.54× | | [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $77.70 111 coins | 21.4% | 99 | 92.9 | 1.07× | | [AWP \| Snake Camo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-snake-camo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 91 | $72.80 104 coins | 8.8% | 44 | 40.9 | 1.08× | | [★ Ursus Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife) | 1 in 2,000 | $64.46 92.08 coins | 0.4% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.08× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 71 | $60.39 86.27 coins | 9.3% | 44 | 52.0 | 0.85× | | [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $26.17 37.38 coins | 17.3% | 224 | 223.0 | 1.00× | | [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $17.75 25.35 coins | 11.7% | 209 | 223.0 | 0.94× | | [P250 \| Steel Disruption (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-steel-disruption-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $5.20 7.43 coins | 5.2% | 323 | 334.4 | 0.97× | | [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $4.36 6.23 coins | 3.8% | 303 | 297.3 | 1.02× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-field-tested) | 15.7% | $0.78 1.11 coins | 1.3% | 585 | 583.0 | 1.00× | | [StatTrak™ M249 \| Aztec (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m249-aztec-field-tested) | 12.0% | $0.65 0.93 coins | 0.9% | 466 | 445.9 | 1.05× | | [P250 \| Verdigris (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-verdigris-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.25 0.36 coins | 0.6% | 707 | 743.2 | 0.95× | | [USP-S \| Night Ops (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-night-ops-field-tested) | 17.0% | $0.16 0.23 coins | 0.3% | 665 | 631.7 | 1.05× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=incognito) [M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-minimal-wear) Hidden $9.98 14.25 coins $4.36 6.23 coins 0.44x 2026-11-11 16:02 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-field-tested) Hidden $9.98 14.25 coins $0.78 1.11 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 16:02 UTC [P250 | Verdigris (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-verdigris-field-tested) Hidden $9.98 14.25 coins $0.25 0.36 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 16:02 UTC [StatTrak™ M249 | Aztec (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m249-aztec-field-tested) [🟢Kick: JULSY](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%F0%9F%9F%A2Kick%3A%20JULSY) $9.98 14.25 coins $0.65 0.93 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 16:02 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-field-tested) Hidden $9.98 14.25 coins $0.78 1.11 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 16:02 UTC [M4A4 | Cyber Security (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-minimal-wear) Hidden $9.98 14.25 coins $26.17 37.38 coins 2.62x 2026-11-11 16:02 UTC [StatTrak™ M249 | Aztec (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m249-aztec-field-tested) [DrWein](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/DrWein) $9.98 14.25 coins $0.65 0.93 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 14:55 UTC [StatTrak™ M249 | Aztec (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m249-aztec-field-tested) [Ajax absult 100%](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Ajax%20absult%20100%25) $9.98 14.25 coins $0.65 0.93 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 14:55 UTC [P250 | Verdigris (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-verdigris-field-tested) Hidden $9.98 14.25 coins $0.25 0.36 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 14:42 UTC [StatTrak™ M249 | Aztec (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m249-aztec-field-tested) Hidden $9.98 14.25 coins $0.65 0.93 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 14:42 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 20:20 UTC | $9.98 | 90.94% | 16 | | 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $9.98 | 90.93% | 16 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $9.98 | 90.88% | 16 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $10.02 | 90.91% | 16 | | 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $9.97 | 90.94% | 16 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $9.97 | 90.92% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed restricted 36.4% covert 3.1% mil spec 53.1% classified 7.4% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.94 on average: an expected loss of $9.06 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt