--- title: "Incubator case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Incubator ($3.74) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.95% from 23 items with odds, observed 89.20% over 44.7K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/incubator rendered: 2026-11-11T13:39Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Incubator](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/incubator) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Incubator A case on CSGORoll (10%, knives, awp), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/incubator?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/incubator?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/incubator) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/incubator?window=all) Price · $3.74 · 5.35 coins Advertised RTP · 90.95% · EV $3.41 from 23 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.20% · 44.7K openings, odds method Variance · 41.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 38 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 88.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 85.72% ±16.34 5,916 openings 7 days · 88.62% ±6.51 36.8K openings 30 days · 89.20% ±5.90 44.7K openings since tracking started · 89.20% ±5.90 44.7K openings 68.5% 85.5% 102.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/incubator?window=24h) | 5,916 | 85.72% ±16.3 | −0.6σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/incubator?window=7d) | 36.8K | 88.62% ±6.51 | −0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/incubator) | 44.7K | 89.20% ±5.90 | −0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/incubator?window=all) | 44.7K | 89.20% ±5.90 | −0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 44.8K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $5,688 8,125 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Well-Worn) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-well-worn) | 1 in 200,000 | $4,277 6,110 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AWP \| Medusa (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-well-worn) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,775 2,535 coins | 2.6% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.89× | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $888 1,269 coins | 2.6% | 3 | 4.5 | 0.67× | | [P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $493 704 coins | 2.9% | 11 | 9.0 | 1.23× | | [Souvenir Galil AR \| Cerberus (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-galil-ar-cerberus-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $269 384 coins | 2.4% | 17 | 13.4 | 1.26× | | [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,667 | $221 316 coins | 3.9% | 28 | 26.9 | 1.04× | | [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $121 173 coins | 3.6% | 46 | 44.8 | 1.03× | | [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 500 | $107 153 coins | 6.3% | 81 | 89.6 | 0.90× | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $98.00 140 coins | 8.6% | 148 | 134.4 | 1.10× | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-monster-mashup-minimal-wear) | 1 in 247 | $57.36 81.95 coins | 6.8% | 145 | 181.2 | 0.80× | | [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $50.61 72.3 coins | 7.4% | 384 | 224.1 | 1.71× | | [StatTrak™ Nova \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $40.13 57.33 coins | 11.8% | 306 | 448.2 | 0.68× | | [Howl Pin pin · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/howl-pin) | 1 in 100 | $35.01 50.02 coins | 10.3% | 420 | 448.2 | 0.94× | | [Patch \| Howl patch · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-howl) | 1 in 50 | $14.69 20.98 coins | 8.6% | 899 | 896.3 | 1.00× | | [Zeus x27 \| Dragon Snore (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-dragon-snore-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $9.04 12.91 coins | 5.3% | 882 | 896.3 | 0.98× | | [Sticker \| Dragon Lore (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-lore-foil) | 1 in 25 | $6.17 8.82 coins | 7.3% | 1,793 | 1792.6 | 1.00× | | [Sealed Graffiti \| Fire Serpent graffiti · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-fire-serpent) | 10.0% | $1.24 1.77 coins | 3.6% | 4,442 | 4481.6 | 0.99× | | [Sticker \| Baby Howl sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baby-howl) | 14.0% | $0.55 0.78 coins | 2.2% | 6,286 | 6274.2 | 1.00× | | [Sticker \| Baby Medusa sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baby-medusa) | 15.0% | $0.39 0.55 coins | 1.7% | 6,656 | 6722.4 | 0.99× | | [Sticker \| Baby Lore sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baby-lore) | 16.0% | $0.13 0.19 coins | 0.6% | 7,193 | 7170.6 | 1.00× | | [Sticker \| Baby Cerberus sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baby-cerberus) | 16.4% | $0.10 0.15 coins | 0.5% | 7,376 | 7336.4 | 1.01× | | [Sticker \| Baby Fire Serpent sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baby-fire-serpent) | 17.0% | $0.03 0.05 coins | 0.2% | 7,698 | 7618.7 | 1.01× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Medusa (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-well-worn) Hidden $3.74 5.34 coins $1,778 2,540 coins 475.7x 2026-11-06 17:26 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-well-worn) Hidden $3.74 5.34 coins $1,778 2,540 coins 475.7x 2026-11-06 07:11 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-well-worn) Hidden $3.74 5.34 coins $1,778 2,540 coins 475.7x 2026-11-03 16:49 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.74 5.34 coins $923 1,319 coins 247.0x 2026-11-08 10:19 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-minimal-wear) [monstergiss](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/monstergiss) $3.74 5.34 coins $923 1,319 coins 247.0x 2026-11-05 23:03 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.74 5.35 coins $888 1,269 coins 237.2x 2026-11-10 20:52 UTC [P90 | Emerald Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-factory-new) [Addiction](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Addiction) $3.74 5.35 coins $493 704 coins 131.6x 2026-11-10 14:34 UTC [P90 | Emerald Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-factory-new) Hidden $3.74 5.35 coins $493 704 coins 131.6x 2026-11-09 06:24 UTC [P90 | Emerald Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-factory-new) [Eminescu](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Eminescu) $3.74 5.34 coins $394 563 coins 105.4x 2026-11-08 05:26 UTC [P90 | Emerald Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-factory-new) [Cherry](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Cherry) $3.74 5.34 coins $394 563 coins 105.4x 2026-11-08 01:36 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=incubator) [Sticker | Baby Fire Serpent sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baby-fire-serpent) Hidden $3.74 5.35 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:37 UTC [StatTrak™ USP-S | Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-monster-mashup-minimal-wear) [DriVinity](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/DriVinity) $3.74 5.35 coins $57.36 81.95 coins 15.32x 2026-11-11 13:37 UTC [Sticker | Baby Lore sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baby-lore) Hidden $3.74 5.35 coins $0.13 0.19 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [Sticker | Baby Howl sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baby-howl) [Sean da Paul](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Sean%20da%20Paul) $3.74 5.35 coins $0.55 0.78 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-factory-new) Hidden $3.74 5.35 coins $98.00 140 coins 26.17x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [Sticker | Baby Howl sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baby-howl) Hidden $3.74 5.35 coins $0.55 0.78 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [Sticker | Baby Cerberus sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baby-cerberus) Hidden $3.74 5.35 coins $0.10 0.15 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [Sticker | Baby Howl sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baby-howl) [Sean da Paul](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Sean%20da%20Paul) $3.74 5.35 coins $0.55 0.78 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [Zeus x27 | Dragon Snore (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-dragon-snore-field-tested) Hidden $3.74 5.35 coins $9.04 12.91 coins 2.41x 2026-11-11 13:35 UTC [Sticker | Baby Medusa sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baby-medusa) Hidden $3.74 5.35 coins $0.39 0.55 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $3.74 | 90.95% | 23 | | 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $3.74 | 90.92% | 23 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $3.75 | 90.89% | 23 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $3.76 | 90.89% | 23 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.74 | 90.91% | 23 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.4% contraband 0.0% classified 2.2% restricted 0.0% extraordinary 1.0% exotic 16.0% #d32ce6 2.0% high 45.0% Rare 33.4% best hit $1,778 (475.7x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.95 on average: an expected loss of $9.05 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt