---
title: "Infected Case case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Infected Case ($2.91) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.95% from 13 items with odds, observed 92.30% over 15.8K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/infected-case
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:29Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Infected Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/infected-case)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Infected Case

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/infected-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/infected-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/infected-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/infected-case?window=all)

Price · $2.91 · 4.15 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.95% · EV $2.64 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 92.30% · 15.8K openings, odds method

Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 77.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 89.67% ±5.25 1,295 openings

7 days · 92.42% ±1.58 13.9K openings

30 days · 92.30% ±1.48 15.8K openings

since tracking started · 92.30% ±1.48 15.8K openings

84.0% 89.8% 95.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/infected-case?window=24h) | 1,295 | 89.67% ±5.25 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/infected-case?window=7d) | 13.9K | 92.42% ±1.58 | +2.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/infected-case) | 15.8K | 92.30% ±1.48 | +1.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/infected-case?window=all) | 15.8K | 92.30% ±1.48 | +1.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 15.8K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $33.04 47.2 coins | 0.1% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.27× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Poison Dart (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-poison-dart-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $11.45 16.36 coins | 10.8% | 363 | 394.1 | 0.92× |
| [M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 42 | $10.65 15.21 coins | 9.6% | 439 | 376.8 | 1.17× |
| [AUG \| Death by Puppy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $6.92 9.89 coins | 0.3% | 17 | 15.8 | 1.08× |
| [FAMAS \| Neural Net (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $6.61 9.45 coins | 17.5% | 1,141 | 1103.6 | 1.03× |
| [MP9 \| Deadly Poison (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $6.50 9.29 coins | 19.7% | 1,283 | 1261.2 | 1.02× |
| [MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $4.12 5.89 coins | 4.7% | 478 | 472.9 | 1.01× |
| [FAMAS \| Survivor Z (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-survivor-z-factory-new) | 20.0% | $2.22 3.17 coins | 16.8% | 3,187 | 3153.0 | 1.01× |
| [Negev \| Nuclear Waste (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-nuclear-waste-field-tested) | 10.0% | $1.81 2.58 coins | 6.8% | 1,517 | 1576.5 | 0.96× |
| [M249 \| Emerald Poison Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-emerald-poison-dart-field-tested) | 10.0% | $1.11 1.58 coins | 4.2% | 1,523 | 1576.5 | 0.97× |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $1.09 1.55 coins | 4.1% | 1,608 | 1576.5 | 1.02× |
| [UMP-45 \| Exposure (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $1.05 1.5 coins | 2.8% | 1,089 | 1103.6 | 0.99× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Outbreak (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-outbreak-factory-new) | 20.0% | $0.34 0.48 coins | 2.5% | 3,118 | 3153.0 | 0.99× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=infected-case)

[M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) Hidden $2.91 4.15 coins $10.65 15.21 coins 3.67x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC

[M249 | Emerald Poison Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-emerald-poison-dart-field-tested) [Rusty Cake](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Rusty%20Cake) $2.91 4.15 coins $1.11 1.58 coins 0.38x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC

[FAMAS | Neural Net (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-factory-new) Hidden $2.91 4.15 coins $6.61 9.45 coins 2.28x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Outbreak (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-outbreak-factory-new) [gaygay](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/gaygay) $2.91 4.15 coins $0.34 0.48 coins 0.12x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Outbreak (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-outbreak-factory-new) Hidden $2.91 4.15 coins $0.34 0.48 coins 0.12x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC

[AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.91 4.15 coins $1.09 1.55 coins 0.37x 2026-11-11 13:00 UTC

[UMP-45 | Exposure (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.91 4.15 coins $1.05 1.5 coins 0.36x 2026-11-11 13:00 UTC

[FAMAS | Survivor Z (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-survivor-z-factory-new) Hidden $2.91 4.15 coins $2.22 3.17 coins 0.76x 2026-11-11 13:00 UTC

[FAMAS | Survivor Z (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-survivor-z-factory-new) Hidden $2.91 4.15 coins $2.22 3.17 coins 0.76x 2026-11-11 13:00 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Outbreak (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-outbreak-factory-new) Hidden $2.91 4.15 coins $0.34 0.48 coins 0.12x 2026-11-11 13:00 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:20 UTC | $2.91 | 90.95% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $2.87 | 90.92% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $2.88 | 90.81% | 13 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $2.83 | 90.93% | 13 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $2.83 | 90.86% | 13 |
| 4 Nov, 22:33 UTC | $2.85 | 90.92% | 13 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.89 | 90.81% | 13 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 0.1% mil spec 52.9% restricted 37.0% industrial 10.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.95 on average: an expected loss of $9.05 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt