--- title: "Infected mushrooms case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Infected mushrooms ($5.17) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 16 items with odds, observed 91.22% over 30.7K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/infected-mushrooms rendered: 2026-11-11T22:45Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Infected mushrooms](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/infected-mushrooms) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Infected mushrooms A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/infected-mushrooms?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/infected-mushrooms?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/infected-mushrooms) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/infected-mushrooms?window=all) Price · $5.17 · 7.38 coins Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $4.70 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.22% · 30.7K openings, odds method Variance · 0.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 37.8% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 58.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 91.54% ±1.31 4,841 openings 7 days · 91.16% ±0.53 29.5K openings 30 days · 91.22% ±0.52 30.7K openings since tracking started · 91.22% ±0.52 30.7K openings 89.5% 91.5% 93.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/infected-mushrooms?window=24h) | 4,841 | 91.54% ±1.31 | +0.7σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/infected-mushrooms?window=7d) | 29.5K | 91.16% ±0.53 | +0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/infected-mushrooms) | 30.7K | 91.22% ±0.52 | +1.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/infected-mushrooms?window=all) | 30.7K | 91.22% ±0.52 | +1.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 30.7K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-cobra-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $96.60 138 coins | 0.1% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.65× | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-monster-mashup-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,857 | $57.36 81.95 coins | 0.4% | 12 | 10.7 | 1.12× | | [Galil AR \| CAUTION! (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-caution-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $42.34 60.48 coins | 0.5% | 22 | 15.3 | 1.43× | | [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-well-worn) | 1 in 1,667 | $40.21 57.44 coins | 0.5% | 21 | 18.4 | 1.14× | | [Sticker \| Ultraviolet Poison Frog (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ultraviolet-poison-frog-foil) | 1 in 1,000 | $27.60 39.43 coins | 0.6% | 31 | 30.7 | 1.01× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Exoskeleton (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-exoskeleton-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $13.28 18.97 coins | 0.8% | 105 | 92.0 | 1.14× | | [Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $9.34 13.34 coins | 2.0% | 324 | 306.7 | 1.06× | | [Glock-18 \| Green Line (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-green-line-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $7.15 10.21 coins | 0.2% | 46 | 46.0 | 1.00× | | [StatTrak™ P90 \| Virus (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-virus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $6.05 8.64 coins | 7.9% | 1,789 | 1871.1 | 0.96× | | [MP9 \| Deadly Poison (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-factory-new) | 30.0% | $6.03 8.61 coins | 38.5% | 9,236 | 9201.9 | 1.00× | | [Sticker \| FalleN (Foil) \| Katowice 2019 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fallen-foil-katowice-2019) | 1 in 24 | $5.33 7.61 coins | 4.8% | 1,332 | 1288.3 | 1.03× | | [SG 553 \| Pulse (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-pulse-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $4.79 6.85 coins | 1.5% | 493 | 460.1 | 1.07× | | [StatTrak™ P250 \| Inferno (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-inferno-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $3.94 5.63 coins | 7.1% | 2,603 | 2607.2 | 1.00× | | [P2000 \| Pulse (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-pulse-factory-new) | 36.0% | $3.93 5.61 coins | 30.1% | 10,956 | 11042.3 | 0.99× | | [PP-Bizon \| Chemical Green (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-chemical-green-field-tested) | 10.0% | $1.95 2.79 coins | 4.2% | 3,087 | 3067.3 | 1.01× | | [M249 \| Emerald Poison Dart (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-emerald-poison-dart-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $1.87 2.67 coins | 0.8% | 615 | 613.5 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 20:32 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=infected-mushrooms) [MP9 | Deadly Poison (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-factory-new) Hidden $5.17 7.38 coins $6.03 8.61 coins 1.17x 2026-11-11 22:43 UTC [MP9 | Deadly Poison (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-factory-new) Hidden $5.17 7.38 coins $6.03 8.61 coins 1.17x 2026-11-11 22:43 UTC [P2000 | Pulse (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-pulse-factory-new) Hidden $5.17 7.38 coins $3.93 5.61 coins 0.76x 2026-11-11 22:43 UTC [PP-Bizon | Chemical Green (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-chemical-green-field-tested) Hidden $5.17 7.38 coins $1.95 2.79 coins 0.38x 2026-11-11 22:43 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | Inferno (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-inferno-factory-new) [B☢3\*\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/B%E2%98%A23*_-513453) $5.17 7.38 coins $3.94 5.63 coins 0.76x 2026-11-11 22:42 UTC [P2000 | Pulse (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-pulse-factory-new) Hidden $5.17 7.38 coins $3.93 5.61 coins 0.76x 2026-11-11 22:42 UTC [MP9 | Deadly Poison (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-factory-new) Hidden $5.17 7.38 coins $6.03 8.61 coins 1.17x 2026-11-11 22:42 UTC [M249 | Emerald Poison Dart (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-emerald-poison-dart-factory-new) Hidden $5.17 7.38 coins $1.87 2.67 coins 0.36x 2026-11-11 22:42 UTC [MP9 | Deadly Poison (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-factory-new) [Gabbre](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Gabbre) $5.17 7.38 coins $6.03 8.61 coins 1.17x 2026-11-11 22:42 UTC [P2000 | Pulse (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-pulse-factory-new) Hidden $5.17 7.38 coins $3.93 5.61 coins 0.76x 2026-11-11 22:42 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 20:32 UTC | $5.17 | 90.90% | 16 | | 9 Nov, 14:08 UTC | $5.32 | 90.95% | 16 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $5.28 | 90.91% | 16 | | 6 Nov, 10:50 UTC | $5.40 | 90.86% | 16 | | 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $5.45 | 90.85% | 16 | | 3 Nov, 07:26 UTC | $5.54 | 90.88% | 16 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $5.28 | 90.85% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 0.0% restricted 19.4% covert 0.1% exotic 0.1% uncommon 0.1% mil spec 66.0% remarkable 4.2% industrial 10.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt