--- title: "Infectious case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Infectious ($8.99) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.94% from 19 items with odds, observed 88.61% over 2,563 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/infectious rendered: 2026-11-11T13:11Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Infectious](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/infectious) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Infectious A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/infectious?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/infectious?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/infectious) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/infectious?window=all) Price · $8.99 · 12.84 coins Advertised RTP · 90.94% · EV $8.17 from 19 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.61% · 2,563 openings, odds method Variance · 2.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 12.1% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 74.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 80.07% ±20.86 221 openings 7 days · 87.17% ±6.88 2,168 openings 30 days · 88.61% ±6.34 2,563 openings since tracking started · 88.61% ±6.34 2,563 openings 58.5% 80.0% 101.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/infectious?window=24h) | 221 | 80.07% ±20.9 | −1.0σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/infectious?window=7d) | 2,168 | 87.17% ±6.88 | −1.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/infectious) | 2,563 | 88.61% ±6.34 | −0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/infectious?window=all) | 2,563 | 88.61% ±6.34 | −0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,567 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [USP-S \| Target Acquired (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-well-worn) | 1 in 333 | $186 265 coins | 6.8% | 5 | 7.7 | 0.65× | | [P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $118 169 coins | 2.9% | 3 | 5.1 | 0.58× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $85.40 122 coins | 1.0% | 7 | 2.6 | 2.73× | | [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Unhinged (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-unhinged-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $47.36 67.65 coins | 5.8% | 30 | 25.7 | 1.17× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Giraffe (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-giraffe-field-tested) | 1 in 133 | $37.24 53.2 coins | 3.4% | 11 | 19.3 | 0.57× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-frontside-misty-well-worn) | 1 in 80 | $30.32 43.32 coins | 4.6% | 34 | 32.1 | 1.06× | | [FAMAS \| Pulse (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $26.89 38.42 coins | 16.5% | 116 | 128.3 | 0.90× | | [UMP-45 \| Fallout Warning (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fallout-warning-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $26.87 38.38 coins | 11.5% | 97 | 89.8 | 1.08× | | [FAMAS \| Afterimage (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-afterimage-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $15.62 22.31 coins | 2.9% | 44 | 38.5 | 1.14× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $12.11 17.3 coins | 3.7% | 62 | 64.2 | 0.97× | | [AUG \| Wings (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-wings-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $11.80 16.85 coins | 2.9% | 45 | 51.3 | 0.88× | | [G3SG1 \| Arctic Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-arctic-camo-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $9.37 13.39 coins | 8.0% | 175 | 179.7 | 0.97× | | [AWP \| Phobos (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $5.17 7.38 coins | 2.5% | 104 | 102.7 | 1.01× | | [MP7 \| Scorched (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $4.51 6.44 coins | 3.3% | 140 | 154.0 | 0.91× | | [Glock-18 \| Blue Fissure (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $3.93 5.61 coins | 7.2% | 411 | 385.1 | 1.07× | | [M4A4 \| Jungle Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-jungle-tiger-field-tested) | 11.9% | $3.26 4.65 coins | 4.7% | 295 | 305.5 | 0.97× | | [M249 \| Jungle DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-jungle-ddpat-field-tested) | 13.0% | $2.87 4.1 coins | 4.6% | 313 | 333.7 | 0.94× | | [Nova \| Moon in Libra (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-moon-in-libra-well-worn) | 1 in 11 | $2.74 3.91 coins | 3.0% | 254 | 231.0 | 1.10× | | [Negev \| Bratatat (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-bratatat-field-tested) | 16.0% | $2.35 3.36 coins | 4.6% | 421 | 410.7 | 1.03× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=infectious) [M249 | Jungle DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-jungle-ddpat-field-tested) Hidden $8.99 12.84 coins $2.87 4.1 coins 0.32x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC [M4A4 | Jungle Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-jungle-tiger-field-tested) Hidden $8.99 12.84 coins $3.26 4.65 coins 0.36x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC [Negev | Bratatat (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-bratatat-field-tested) [BRÄTT \<3](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/BR%C3%84TT%20%3C3) $8.99 12.84 coins $2.35 3.36 coins 0.26x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC [M249 | Jungle DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-jungle-ddpat-field-tested) [Rusty Cake](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Rusty%20Cake) $8.99 12.84 coins $2.87 4.1 coins 0.32x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC [AUG | Wings (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-wings-factory-new) Hidden $8.99 12.84 coins $11.80 16.85 coins 1.31x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC [G3SG1 | Arctic Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-arctic-camo-field-tested) [dropix](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/dropix) $8.99 12.84 coins $9.37 13.39 coins 1.04x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC [Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-minimal-wear) Hidden $8.99 12.84 coins $3.93 5.61 coins 0.44x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC [Nova | Moon in Libra (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-moon-in-libra-well-worn) Hidden $8.99 12.84 coins $2.74 3.91 coins 0.30x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC [Negev | Bratatat (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-bratatat-field-tested) Hidden $8.99 12.84 coins $2.35 3.36 coins 0.26x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC [M249 | Jungle DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-jungle-ddpat-field-tested) [Jarza](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jarza) $8.99 12.84 coins $2.87 4.1 coins 0.32x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 14:08 UTC | $8.99 | 90.94% | 19 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $9.07 | 90.89% | 19 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $8.79 | 90.95% | 19 | | 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $8.83 | 90.91% | 19 | | 6 Nov, 10:50 UTC | $8.84 | 90.88% | 19 | | 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $8.75 | 90.90% | 19 | | 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $8.78 | 90.89% | 19 | | 3 Nov, 09:32 UTC | $8.83 | 90.94% | 19 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $8.95 | 90.92% | 19 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 5.8% covert 0.1% extraordinary 1.8% restricted 5.0% industrial 22.4% mil spec 33.0% Mythical 4.0% consumer 28.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.94 on average: an expected loss of $9.06 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt