--- title: "Injection case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Injection ($51.43) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 14 items with odds, observed 87.08% over 748 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/injection rendered: 2026-11-11T14:02Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Injection](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/injection) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Injection A case on CSGORoll (25%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/injection?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/injection?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/injection) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/injection?window=all) Price · $51.43 · 73.47 coins Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $46.75 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 87.08% · 748 openings, odds method Variance · 9.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 30 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 82.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 59 openings · below min 7 days · 86.88% ±24.93 620 openings 30 days · 87.08% ±22.73 748 openings since tracking started · 87.08% ±22.73 748 openings 43.5% 124.0% 204.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/injection?window=24h) | 59 | 123.94% ±79.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/injection?window=7d) | 620 | 86.88% ±24.9 | −0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/injection) | 748 | 87.08% ±22.7 | −0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/injection?window=all) | 748 | 87.08% ±22.7 | −0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 748 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) | 1 in 200 | $1,740 2,485 coins | 18.6% | 6 | 3.7 | 1.60× | | [★ Bayonet \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-night-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $765 1,093 coins | 16.4% | 7 | 7.5 | 0.94× | | [★ Karambit \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $512 731 coins | 10.9% | 2 | 7.5 | 0.27× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $371 530 coins | 6.3% | 4 | 6.0 | 0.67× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Jaguar (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-jaguar-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $284 406 coins | 15.2% | 11 | 18.7 | 0.59× | | [Sticker \| fitch (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fitch-gold-boston-2018) | 1 in 25 | $122 175 coins | 10.5% | 30 | 29.9 | 1.00× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-overprint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 83 | $115 164 coins | 2.9% | 11 | 9.0 | 1.23× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Stained (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-stained-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $79.10 113 coins | 5.1% | 27 | 22.4 | 1.20× | | [AWP \| Snake Camo (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-snake-camo-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $76.30 109 coins | 6.5% | 27 | 29.9 | 0.90× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $50.43 72.05 coins | 3.8% | 25 | 26.2 | 0.95× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-damascus-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 29 | $49.60 70.86 coins | 3.7% | 28 | 26.2 | 1.07× | | [Tec-9 \| Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) | 25.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 196 | 187.0 | 1.05× | | [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 25.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 196 | 187.0 | 1.05× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 25.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 178 | 187.0 | 0.95× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) Hidden $51.46 73.51 coins $1,820 2,600 coins 35.37x 2026-11-07 14:20 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) Hidden $51.46 73.51 coins $1,820 2,600 coins 35.37x 2026-11-07 09:09 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) Hidden $51.46 73.51 coins $1,820 2,600 coins 35.37x 2026-11-04 19:35 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) Hidden $51.46 73.51 coins $1,820 2,600 coins 35.37x 2026-11-03 22:06 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) [Mosbricka](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Mosbricka) $51.43 73.47 coins $1,740 2,485 coins 33.82x 2026-11-10 19:52 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) [bennett](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/bennett) $51.43 73.47 coins $1,740 2,485 coins 33.82x 2026-11-09 23:13 UTC [★ Bayonet | Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-night-factory-new) Hidden $51.43 73.47 coins $765 1,093 coins 14.88x 2026-11-10 15:32 UTC [★ Bayonet | Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-night-factory-new) [BeastafiedBeast](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/BeastafiedBeast) $51.43 73.47 coins $765 1,093 coins 14.88x 2026-11-10 05:27 UTC [★ Bayonet | Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-night-factory-new) Hidden $51.43 73.47 coins $765 1,093 coins 14.88x 2026-11-09 13:36 UTC [★ Bayonet | Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-night-factory-new) Hidden $51.46 73.51 coins $765 1,093 coins 14.87x 2026-11-06 19:28 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=injection) [Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) [ChrasťoušekS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Chras%C5%A5ou%C5%A1ekS) $51.43 73.47 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:26 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $51.43 73.47 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:26 UTC [Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) Hidden $51.43 73.47 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:26 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $51.43 73.47 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:12 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) [Kickerrrrrrrr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kickerrrrrrrr) $51.43 73.47 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:12 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $51.43 73.47 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:12 UTC [Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) Hidden $51.43 73.47 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:12 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $51.43 73.47 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:11 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) [Kickerrrrrrrr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kickerrrrrrrr) $51.43 73.47 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:11 UTC [Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) Hidden $51.43 73.47 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:11 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $51.43 | 90.90% | 14 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $51.67 | 90.91% | 14 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $51.46 | 90.91% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 15.0% extraordinary 6.0% mil spec 4.0% consumer 75.0% best hit $1,820 (35.37x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt