---
title: "Insomnia case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Insomnia ($7.82) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 19 items with odds, observed 89.47% over 4,719 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/insomnia
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Insomnia](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/insomnia)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Insomnia

A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/insomnia?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/insomnia?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/insomnia) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/insomnia?window=all)

Price · $7.82 · 11.17 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $7.11 from 19 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.47% · 4,719 openings, odds method

Variance · 4.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 17.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 90.86% ±16.93 542 openings

7 days · 90.09% ±6.32 4,070 openings

30 days · 89.47% ±5.88 4,719 openings

since tracking started · 89.47% ±5.88 4,719 openings

73.5% 91.0% 108.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/insomnia?window=24h) | 542 | 90.86% ±16.9 | −0.0σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/insomnia?window=7d) | 4,070 | 90.09% ±6.32 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/insomnia) | 4,719 | 89.47% ±5.88 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/insomnia?window=all) | 4,719 | 89.47% ±5.88 | −0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,725 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $465 664 coins | 0.7% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 5,000 | $291 415 coins | 0.8% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 2,000 | $242 346 coins | 1.7% | 4 | 2.4 | 1.69× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-field-tested) | 1 in 2,500 | $174 249 coins | 1.0% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.06× |
| [Sticker \| Titan (Foil) \| Cluj-Napoca 2015 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-foil-cluj-napoca-2015) | 1 in 333 | $133 190 coins | 5.6% | 13 | 14.2 | 0.92× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Blueprint (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-blueprint-factory-new) | 1 in 222 | $109 156 coins | 6.9% | 15 | 21.3 | 0.71× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-polygon-well-worn) | 1 in 667 | $82.60 118 coins | 1.7% | 8 | 7.1 | 1.13× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-field-tested) | 1 in 154 | $65.46 93.51 coins | 6.0% | 22 | 30.7 | 0.72× |
| [MP9 \| Stained Glass (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-stained-glass-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $57.92 82.74 coins | 8.1% | 46 | 47.3 | 0.97× |
| [Souvenir Dual Berettas \| Cobalt Quartz (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-dual-berettas-cobalt-quartz-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,250 | $23.63 33.75 coins | 0.3% | 6 | 3.8 | 1.59× |
| [Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $20.60 29.43 coins | 7.2% | 131 | 118.1 | 1.11× |
| [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $19.01 27.15 coins | 3.3% | 59 | 59.1 | 1.00× |
| [Patch \| Death From Below patch · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-death-from-below) | 1 in 50 | $11.35 16.21 coins | 3.2% | 90 | 94.5 | 0.95× |
| [Charm \| Semi-Precious charm · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-semi-precious) | 1 in 67 | $8.11 11.58 coins | 1.7% | 75 | 70.9 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-bunsen-burner-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $6.84 9.77 coins | 6.7% | 358 | 330.8 | 1.08× |
| [Glock-18 \| Off World (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-off-world-factory-new) | 33.0% | $6.71 9.58 coins | 31.1% | 1,514 | 1559.3 | 0.97× |
| [USP-S \| Blueprint (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $3.42 4.88 coins | 4.8% | 473 | 472.5 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-rocket-pop-field-tested) | 17.0% | $1.83 2.61 coins | 4.4% | 833 | 803.3 | 1.04× |
| [MAC-10 \| Lapis Gator (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-lapis-gator-factory-new) | 23.0% | $1.43 2.05 coins | 4.6% | 1,074 | 1086.8 | 0.99× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-minimal-wear) Hidden $7.71 11.01 coins $471 673 coins 61.13x 2026-11-07 23:18 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=insomnia)

[MAC-10 | Lapis Gator (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-lapis-gator-factory-new) Hidden $7.82 11.17 coins $1.43 2.05 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-bunsen-burner-factory-new) Hidden $7.82 11.17 coins $6.84 9.77 coins 0.87x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC

[Glock-18 | Off World (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-off-world-factory-new) Hidden $7.82 11.17 coins $6.71 9.58 coins 0.86x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC

[MAC-10 | Lapis Gator (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-lapis-gator-factory-new) [Kisu :)](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kisu%20%3A%29) $7.82 11.17 coins $1.43 2.05 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC

[Galil AR | Stone Cold (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-factory-new) Hidden $7.82 11.17 coins $20.60 29.43 coins 2.63x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC

[Galil AR | Stone Cold (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-factory-new) Hidden $7.82 11.17 coins $20.60 29.43 coins 2.63x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC

[MAC-10 | Lapis Gator (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-lapis-gator-factory-new) Hidden $7.82 11.17 coins $1.43 2.05 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC

[Glock-18 | Off World (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-off-world-factory-new) Hidden $7.82 11.17 coins $6.71 9.58 coins 0.86x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC

[MAC-10 | Lapis Gator (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-lapis-gator-factory-new) Hidden $7.82 11.17 coins $1.43 2.05 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-bunsen-burner-factory-new) Hidden $7.82 11.17 coins $6.84 9.77 coins 0.87x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $7.82 | 90.91% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $7.67 | 90.89% | 19 |
| 3 Nov, 07:26 UTC | $7.71 | 90.94% | 19 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $7.78 | 90.93% | 19 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 0.7% covert 0.1% extraordinary 0.2% exotic 0.3% mil spec 90.5% restricted 3.6% rare 2.8% remarkable 2.0% best hit $471 (61.13x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt