---
title: "Ionized case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Ionized ($22.31) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 17 items with odds, observed 89.99% over 832 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ionized
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:18Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Ionized](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ionized)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Ionized

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ionized?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ionized?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ionized) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ionized?window=all)

Price · $22.31 · 31.87 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $20.28 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.99% · 832 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 17.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 82.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 81 openings · below min

7 days · 90.31% ±9.97 698 openings

30 days · 89.99% ±9.13 832 openings

since tracking started · 89.99% ±9.13 832 openings

47.0% 77.0% 107.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ionized?window=24h) | 81 | 76.91% ±29.4 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ionized?window=7d) | 698 | 90.31% ±9.97 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ionized) | 832 | 89.99% ±9.13 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ionized?window=all) | 832 | 89.99% ±9.13 | −0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 836 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $377 539 coins | 1.9% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [MP9 \| Bulldozer (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bulldozer-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $262 374 coins | 6.5% | 3 | 4.2 | 0.72× |
| [Sticker \| Snax (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-snax-gold-boston-2018) | 1 in 400 | $200 285 coins | 2.5% | 3 | 2.1 | 1.44× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $159 227 coins | 6.3% | 4 | 6.7 | 0.60× |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 286 | $118 169 coins | 2.0% | 3 | 2.9 | 1.03× |
| [UMP-45 \| Minotaur's Labyrinth (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-minotaurs-labyrinth-field-tested) | 1 in 77 | $78.40 112 coins | 5.0% | 7 | 10.9 | 0.64× |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-factory-new) | 1 in 36 | $51.58 73.69 coins | 7.1% | 29 | 23.4 | 1.24× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-well-worn) | 1 in 29 | $51.29 73.27 coins | 8.9% | 33 | 29.3 | 1.13× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Duct Tape (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-duct-tape-field-tested) | 1 in 59 | $39.71 56.73 coins | 3.3% | 16 | 14.2 | 1.13× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $38.76 55.37 coins | 11.5% | 50 | 50.2 | 1.00× |
| [MP9 \| Airlock (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-factory-new) | 12.6% | $20.05 28.65 coins | 12.5% | 120 | 105.5 | 1.14× |
| [Glock-18 \| Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-groundwater-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $13.61 19.45 coins | 4.8% | 51 | 60.0 | 0.85× |
| [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $13.29 18.98 coins | 2.9% | 37 | 37.6 | 0.98× |
| [Sticker \| Neon Opal Strafe (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-neon-opal-strafe-holo) | 14.0% | $11.21 16.01 coins | 7.7% | 127 | 117.0 | 1.09× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Death's Head (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-deaths-head-battle-scarred) | 14.0% | $10.48 14.97 coins | 7.2% | 103 | 117.0 | 0.88× |
| [Nova \| Graphite (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-graphite-factory-new) | 16.4% | $7.21 10.3 coins | 5.8% | 137 | 137.1 | 1.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-minimal-wear) | 14.0% | $5.91 8.44 coins | 4.1% | 112 | 117.0 | 0.96× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=ionized)

[AK-47 | Baroque Purple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-minimal-wear) Hidden $22.31 31.87 coins $5.91 8.44 coins 0.26x 2026-11-11 10:08 UTC

[Nova | Graphite (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-graphite-factory-new) Hidden $22.31 31.87 coins $7.21 10.3 coins 0.32x 2026-11-11 10:08 UTC

[M4A1-S | Guardian (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-factory-new) Hidden $22.31 31.87 coins $51.58 73.69 coins 2.31x 2026-11-11 10:08 UTC

[MP9 | Airlock (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-factory-new) Hidden $22.31 31.87 coins $20.05 28.65 coins 0.90x 2026-11-11 10:08 UTC

[MP9 | Airlock (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-factory-new) [Cousin of po](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Cousin%20of%20po) $22.31 31.87 coins $20.05 28.65 coins 0.90x 2026-11-11 10:08 UTC

[Sticker | Neon Opal Strafe (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-neon-opal-strafe-holo) Hidden $22.31 31.87 coins $11.21 16.01 coins 0.50x 2026-11-11 10:08 UTC

[AK-47 | Baroque Purple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-minimal-wear) Hidden $22.31 31.87 coins $5.91 8.44 coins 0.26x 2026-11-11 08:09 UTC

[AWP | Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-well-worn) [Erez csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Erez%20csgoroll.com) $22.31 31.87 coins $38.76 55.37 coins 1.74x 2026-11-11 08:09 UTC

[Nova | Graphite (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-graphite-factory-new) [Queen B ❤](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Queen%20B%20%E2%9D%A4) $22.31 31.87 coins $7.21 10.3 coins 0.32x 2026-11-11 08:06 UTC

[Sticker | Neon Opal Strafe (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-neon-opal-strafe-holo) [Erez csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Erez%20csgoroll.com) $22.31 31.87 coins $11.21 16.01 coins 0.50x 2026-11-11 08:06 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $22.31 | 90.91% | 17 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $22.41 | 90.91% | 17 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $22.46 | 90.91% | 17 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $22.52 | 90.90% | 17 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 20.4% restricted 30.9% extraordinary 1.9% covert 10.3% mil spec 1.3% industrial 21.2% remarkable 14.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt