---
title: "Jigsaw case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Jigsaw ($115.79) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 17 items with odds, observed 96.61% over 60 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/jigsaw
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:42Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Jigsaw](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/jigsaw)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Jigsaw

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/jigsaw?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/jigsaw?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/jigsaw) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/jigsaw?window=all)

Price · $115.79 · 165 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $105.27 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 96.61% · 60 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 24.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 56.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 20 openings · below min

7 days · 44 openings · below min

30 days · 60 openings · below min

since tracking started · 60 openings · below min

30.0% 79.0% 128.0%

**Small sample.** 60 openings and 14.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/jigsaw?window=24h) | 20 | 73.83% ±43.1 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/jigsaw?window=7d) | 44 | 98.48% ±28.8 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/jigsaw) | 60 | 96.61% ±24.6 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/jigsaw?window=all) | 60 | 96.61% ±24.6 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 60 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Sticker \| BnTeT (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bntet-gold-boston-2018) | 1 in 133 | $1,069 1,527 coins | 7.6% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $563 804 coins | 5.3% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $292 417 coins | 2.8% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 400 | $285 407 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Crimson Weave (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $205 293 coins | 1.9% | 2 | 0.6 | — |
| [P90 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $177 253 coins | 25.2% | 13 | 9.0 | 1.44× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $162 232 coins | 7.7% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.00× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $141 201 coins | 6.7% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.67× |
| [Sticker \| flamie (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-flamie-gold-boston-2018) | 1 in 20 | $130 186 coins | 6.2% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.67× |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $126 180 coins | 6.0% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.67× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 20 | $118 168 coins | 5.6% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.67× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $99.40 142 coins | 4.7% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.67× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-marble-fade-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $91.70 131 coins | 4.4% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.67× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $88.90 127 coins | 0.8% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $40.98 58.55 coins | 5.8% | 11 | 9.0 | 1.22× |
| [M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-field-tested) | 15.0% | $30.86 44.08 coins | 4.4% | 8 | 9.0 | 0.89× |
| [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $28.72 41.03 coins | 4.1% | 9 | 9.0 | 1.00× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Sticker | BnTeT (Gold) | Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bntet-gold-boston-2018) Hidden $118 168 coins $1,069 1,527 coins 9.10x 2026-11-05 15:41 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=jigsaw)

[Sticker | flamie (Gold) | Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-flamie-gold-boston-2018) Hidden $116 165 coins $130 186 coins 1.12x 2026-11-11 16:52 UTC

[Tec-9 | Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-minimal-wear) Hidden $116 165 coins $28.72 41.03 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 16:52 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-minimal-wear) Hidden $116 165 coins $40.98 58.55 coins 0.35x 2026-11-11 16:52 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) [BeastafiedBeast](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/BeastafiedBeast) $116 165 coins $118 168 coins 1.02x 2026-11-11 16:52 UTC

[M4A1-S | Bright Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-field-tested) Hidden $116 165 coins $30.86 44.08 coins 0.27x 2026-11-11 16:51 UTC

[M4A1-S | Bright Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-field-tested) Hidden $116 165 coins $30.86 44.08 coins 0.27x 2026-11-11 16:51 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-minimal-wear) Hidden $116 165 coins $40.98 58.55 coins 0.35x 2026-11-11 16:51 UTC

[P90 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-minimal-wear) [BeastafiedBeast](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/BeastafiedBeast) $116 165 coins $177 253 coins 1.53x 2026-11-11 16:51 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-minimal-wear) Hidden $116 165 coins $40.98 58.55 coins 0.35x 2026-11-11 16:50 UTC

[P90 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-minimal-wear) Hidden $116 165 coins $177 253 coins 1.53x 2026-11-11 16:50 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $116 | 90.91% | 17 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $117 | 90.91% | 17 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $118 | 90.91% | 17 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 11.8% covert 42.3% classified 31.0% restricted 15.0% best hit $1,069 (9.10x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt