--- title: "Judgement Day case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Judgement Day ($623.69) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 17 items with odds, observed 86.81% over 436 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/judgement-day rendered: 2026-11-11T18:40Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Judgement Day](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/judgement-day) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Judgement Day A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/judgement-day?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/judgement-day?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/judgement-day) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/judgement-day?window=all) Price · $623.69 · 891 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $566.99 from 17 items Observed RTP, 30d · 86.81% · 436 openings, odds method Variance · 48.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 18 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 82.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 89.70% ±103.16 174 openings 7 days · 86.81% ±64.98 436 openings 30 days · 86.81% ±64.98 436 openings since tracking started · 86.81% ±64.98 436 openings -0.5% 96.5% 193.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/judgement-day?window=24h) | 174 | 89.70% ±103.2 | −0.0σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/judgement-day?window=7d) | 436 | 86.81% ±65.0 | −0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/judgement-day) | 436 | 86.81% ±65.0 | −0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/judgement-day?window=all) | 436 | 86.81% ±65.0 | −0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 436 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) Pascha sticker (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-factory-new-pascha-sticker-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $385K 550,000 coins | 6.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Gungnir (Factory New) Titan (Holo) + 3x IBP (Holo) (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-factory-new-titan-holo-3x-ibp-holo-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $56K 80,000 coins | 9.9% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $9,240 13,200 coins | 6.5% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.15× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 667 | $5,978 8,540 coins | 1.6% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $3,923 5,605 coins | 5.2% | 6 | 3.3 | 1.83× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 91 | $3,815 5,450 coins | 7.4% | 10 | 4.8 | 2.09× | | [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-factory-new) | 1 in 45 | $3,213 4,590 coins | 12.5% | 9 | 9.6 | 0.94× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-spearmint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111 | $2,426 3,465 coins | 3.9% | 5 | 3.9 | 1.27× | | [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 74 | $2,079 2,970 coins | 5.0% | 5 | 5.9 | 0.85× | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 56 | $1,059 1,513 coins | 3.4% | 12 | 7.8 | 1.53× | | [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $737 1,053 coins | 6.5% | 16 | 21.8 | 0.73× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $652 932 coins | 4.0% | 15 | 15.3 | 0.98× | | [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $531 758 coins | 5.6% | 32 | 26.2 | 1.22× | | [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $472 674 coins | 2.1% | 10 | 10.9 | 0.92× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| 3rd Commando Company (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-3rd-commando-company-factory-new) | 17.2% | $204 292 coins | 6.2% | 75 | 75.2 | 1.00× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $165 235 coins | 2.0% | 28 | 30.5 | 0.92× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-night-minimal-wear) | 50.0% | $131 187 coins | 11.5% | 211 | 218.0 | 0.97× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) [1ikedior](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/1ikedior) $624 891 coins $9,240 13,200 coins 14.82x 2026-11-08 21:39 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) Hidden $624 891 coins $9,240 13,200 coins 14.82x 2026-11-08 21:32 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) Hidden $629 898 coins $3,969 5,670 coins 6.31x 2026-11-08 02:06 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) Hidden $629 898 coins $3,969 5,670 coins 6.31x 2026-11-08 01:58 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) Hidden $629 898 coins $3,969 5,670 coins 6.31x 2026-11-08 01:45 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $624 891 coins $3,923 5,605 coins 6.29x 2026-11-10 23:54 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $624 891 coins $3,923 5,605 coins 6.29x 2026-11-10 23:51 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $624 891 coins $3,923 5,605 coins 6.29x 2026-11-10 23:51 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $624 891 coins $3,923 5,605 coins 6.29x 2026-11-10 23:50 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $629 898 coins $3,923 5,605 coins 6.24x 2026-11-08 01:52 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=judgement-day) [★ Ursus Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $624 891 coins $165 235 coins 0.26x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-night-minimal-wear) Hidden $624 891 coins $131 187 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-night-minimal-wear) Hidden $624 891 coins $131 187 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-night-minimal-wear) [karma](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/karma) $624 891 coins $131 187 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-night-minimal-wear) Hidden $624 891 coins $131 187 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-night-minimal-wear) Hidden $624 891 coins $131 187 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) Hidden $624 891 coins $3,815 5,450 coins 6.12x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-night-minimal-wear) [karma](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/karma) $624 891 coins $131 187 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | 3rd Commando Company (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-3rd-commando-company-factory-new) Hidden $624 891 coins $204 292 coins 0.33x 2026-11-11 02:34 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-night-minimal-wear) Hidden $624 891 coins $131 187 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 02:34 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $624 | 90.91% | 17 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $629 | 90.91% | 17 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.1% contraband 0.4% covert 79.1% classified 2.2% extraordinary 18.1% best hit $9,240 (14.82x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt