--- title: "Jukebox case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Jukebox ($2.71) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.99% from 16 items with odds, observed 89.67% over 139K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/jukebox rendered: 2026-11-11T12:49Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Jukebox](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/jukebox) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Jukebox A case on CSGORoll (5%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/jukebox?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/jukebox?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/jukebox) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/jukebox?window=all) Price · $2.71 · 3.87 coins Advertised RTP · 90.99% · EV $2.46 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.67% · 139K openings, odds method Variance · 46.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 99 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 87.81% ±9.70 18.9K openings 7 days · 90.43% ±3.85 117K openings 30 days · 89.67% ±3.53 139K openings since tracking started · 89.67% ±3.53 139K openings 77.5% 87.8% 98.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/jukebox?window=24h) | 18.9K | 87.81% ±9.70 | −0.6σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/jukebox?window=7d) | 117K | 90.43% ±3.85 | −0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/jukebox) | 139K | 89.67% ±3.53 | −0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/jukebox?window=all) | 139K | 89.67% ±3.53 | −0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 139K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 22,222 | $1,292 1,845 coins | 2.4% | 7 | 6.3 | 1.12× | | [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 20,000 | $966 1,380 coins | 2.0% | 2 | 7.0 | 0.29× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 10,000 | $269 384 coins | 1.1% | 15 | 13.9 | 1.08× | | [AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $207 296 coins | 1.7% | 30 | 27.9 | 1.08× | | [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-factory-new) | 1 in 455 | $200 286 coins | 17.9% | 286 | 306.4 | 0.93× | | [AWP \| Corticera (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $112 160 coins | 11.4% | 349 | 348.2 | 1.00× | | [P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $90.30 129 coins | 18.3% | 720 | 696.3 | 1.03× | | [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-minimal-wear) | 1 in 167 | $66.79 95.42 coins | 16.3% | 827 | 835.6 | 0.99× | | [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-turbo-peek-minimal-wear) | 1 in 133 | $47.31 67.59 coins | 14.4% | 1,014 | 1044.5 | 0.97× | | [AK-47 \| Cartel (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $19.36 27.66 coins | 6.3% | 1,159 | 1114.1 | 1.04× | | [P2000 \| Pathfinder (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-pathfinder-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $11.05 15.78 coins | 3.6% | 1,157 | 1114.1 | 1.04× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Nitro (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-nitro-minimal-wear) | 1 in 96 | $10.66 15.23 coins | 4.5% | 1,424 | 1449.1 | 0.98× | | [P250 \| Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-field-tested) | 25.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.1% | 34,719 | 34816.3 | 1.00× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 20.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.1% | 27,991 | 27853.0 | 1.00× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) | 25.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.1% | 35,017 | 34816.3 | 1.01× | | [Nova \| Predator (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-predator-field-tested) | 25.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.1% | 34,548 | 34816.3 | 0.99× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) Hidden $2.71 3.87 coins $1,292 1,845 coins 476.7x 2026-11-09 13:14 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) [Fujicon](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Fujicon) $2.66 3.8 coins $1,292 1,845 coins 485.5x 2026-11-08 04:12 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) Hidden $2.66 3.8 coins $1,292 1,845 coins 485.5x 2026-11-07 00:13 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) Hidden $2.66 3.8 coins $1,292 1,845 coins 485.5x 2026-11-05 00:29 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) Hidden $2.66 3.8 coins $1,292 1,845 coins 485.5x 2026-11-04 18:43 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) Hidden $2.66 3.8 coins $1,292 1,845 coins 485.5x 2026-11-04 18:36 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) [dbedits07](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/dbedits07) $2.66 3.8 coins $1,292 1,845 coins 485.5x 2026-11-03 03:25 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $2.66 3.8 coins $966 1,380 coins 363.2x 2026-11-06 06:39 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $2.66 3.8 coins $966 1,380 coins 363.2x 2026-11-05 18:37 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) [Bumy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Bumy) $2.66 3.8 coins $281 401 coins 105.5x 2026-11-07 23:36 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=jukebox) [P2000 | Pathfinder (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-pathfinder-minimal-wear) [Tunska](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Tunska) $2.71 3.87 coins $11.05 15.78 coins 4.08x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.71 3.87 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $2.71 3.87 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC [Nova | Predator (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-predator-field-tested) [Tunska](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Tunska) $2.71 3.87 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC [Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.71 3.87 coins $66.79 95.42 coins 24.66x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-field-tested) Hidden $2.71 3.87 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC [Nova | Predator (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-predator-field-tested) Hidden $2.71 3.87 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $2.71 3.87 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-field-tested) [Tunska](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Tunska) $2.71 3.87 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.71 3.87 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $2.71 | 90.99% | 16 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $2.75 | 90.81% | 16 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.66 | 90.96% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.3% classified 2.9% industrial 0.8% mil spec 1.0% consumer 95.0% best hit $1,292 (476.7x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.99 on average: an expected loss of $9.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt