--- title: "Junkyard case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Junkyard ($17.27) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 12 items with odds, observed 92.98% over 824 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/junkyard rendered: 2026-11-11T13:28Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Junkyard](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/junkyard) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Junkyard A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/junkyard?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/junkyard?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/junkyard) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/junkyard?window=all) Price · $17.27 · 24.67 coins Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $15.70 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 92.98% · 824 openings, odds method Variance · 1.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 11.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 86.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 77 openings · below min 7 days · 91.57% ±9.99 748 openings 30 days · 92.98% ±9.52 824 openings since tracking started · 92.98% ±9.52 824 openings 64.0% 95.2% 126.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/junkyard?window=24h) | 77 | 95.28% ±30.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/junkyard?window=7d) | 748 | 91.57% ±9.99 | +0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/junkyard) | 824 | 92.98% ±9.52 | +0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/junkyard?window=all) | 824 | 92.98% ±9.52 | +0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 828 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $186 266 coins | 4.7% | 3 | 3.3 | 0.91× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $95.90 137 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $81.90 117 coins | 5.2% | 9 | 8.3 | 1.09× | | [R8 Revolver \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $76.30 109 coins | 38.9% | 71 | 66.2 | 1.07× | | [AK-47 \| Cartel (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $42.29 60.41 coins | 5.4% | 20 | 16.6 | 1.21× | | [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $38.76 55.37 coins | 4.9% | 21 | 16.6 | 1.27× | | [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $17.16 24.51 coins | 5.5% | 42 | 41.4 | 1.01× | | [UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-primal-saber-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $14.33 20.47 coins | 4.6% | 31 | 41.4 | 0.75× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-phantom-disruptor-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $11.97 17.1 coins | 3.8% | 40 | 41.4 | 0.97× | | [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-cyrex-field-tested) | 11.5% | $7.86 11.23 coins | 5.8% | 82 | 95.2 | 0.86× | | [Tec-9 \| Re-Entry (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-re-entry-factory-new) | 40.0% | $6.29 8.99 coins | 16.0% | 317 | 331.2 | 0.96× | | [StatTrak™ P250 \| Supernova (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-supernova-factory-new) | 20.0% | $3.59 5.13 coins | 4.6% | 192 | 165.6 | 1.16× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=junkyard) [StatTrak™ P250 | Supernova (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-supernova-factory-new) Hidden $17.27 24.67 coins $3.59 5.13 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC [Tec-9 | Re-Entry (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-re-entry-factory-new) [dinmor](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/dinmor) $17.27 24.67 coins $6.29 8.99 coins 0.36x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | Supernova (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-supernova-factory-new) Hidden $17.27 24.67 coins $3.59 5.13 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC [Tec-9 | Re-Entry (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-re-entry-factory-new) Hidden $17.26 24.65 coins $6.29 8.99 coins 0.36x 2026-11-11 05:21 UTC [Tec-9 | Re-Entry (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-re-entry-factory-new) Hidden $17.26 24.65 coins $6.29 8.99 coins 0.36x 2026-11-11 05:21 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | Supernova (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-supernova-factory-new) Hidden $17.26 24.65 coins $3.59 5.13 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 05:21 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | Supernova (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-supernova-factory-new) Hidden $17.26 24.65 coins $3.59 5.13 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 05:21 UTC [R8 Revolver | Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $17.26 24.65 coins $76.30 109 coins 4.42x 2026-11-11 05:21 UTC [UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-primal-saber-factory-new) [Arcs](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Arcs) $17.26 24.65 coins $14.33 20.47 coins 0.83x 2026-11-11 05:21 UTC [Tec-9 | Re-Entry (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-re-entry-factory-new) Hidden $17.26 24.65 coins $6.29 8.99 coins 0.36x 2026-11-11 05:00 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC | $17.27 | 90.90% | 12 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $17.26 | 90.92% | 12 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $16.86 | 90.91% | 12 | | 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $16.83 | 90.89% | 12 | | 5 Nov, 10:39 UTC | $16.82 | 90.92% | 12 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $16.82 | 90.92% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 10.5% classified 24.5% industrial 5.0% restricted 60.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt