--- title: "Kaleidoscope case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Kaleidoscope ($16.94) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.89% from 23 items with odds, observed 90.94% over 4,503 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/kaleidoscope rendered: 2026-11-11T17:59Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Kaleidoscope](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/kaleidoscope) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Kaleidoscope A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/kaleidoscope?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/kaleidoscope?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/kaleidoscope) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/kaleidoscope?window=all) Price · $16.94 · 24.2 coins Advertised RTP · 90.89% · EV $15.40 from 23 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.94% · 4,503 openings, odds method Variance · 21.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 15 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 89.31% ±36.70 616 openings 7 days · 90.85% ±14.80 3,866 openings 30 days · 90.94% ±13.73 4,503 openings since tracking started · 90.94% ±13.73 4,503 openings 52.0% 89.3% 126.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/kaleidoscope?window=24h) | 616 | 89.31% ±36.7 | −0.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/kaleidoscope?window=7d) | 3,866 | 90.85% ±14.8 | −0.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/kaleidoscope) | 4,503 | 90.94% ±13.7 | +0.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/kaleidoscope?window=all) | 4,503 | 90.94% ±13.7 | +0.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,503 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 20,000 | $6,584 9,405 coins | 2.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 12,500 | $4,669 6,670 coins | 2.4% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 4,167 | $1,988 2,840 coins | 3.1% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.93× | | [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 1,818 | $533 762 coins | 1.9% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.40× | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 1,471 | $460 657 coins | 2.0% | 5 | 3.1 | 1.63× | | [AUG \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-hot-rod-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $328 468 coins | 10.6% | 20 | 22.5 | 0.89× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-3) | 1 in 200 | $167 238 coins | 5.4% | 22 | 22.5 | 0.98× | | [Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $141 202 coins | 7.3% | 31 | 36.0 | 0.86× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 111 | $129 184 coins | 7.5% | 37 | 40.5 | 0.91× | | [P90 \| Death by Kitty (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-by-kitty-field-tested) | 1 in 88 | $78.40 112 coins | 5.8% | 42 | 51.3 | 0.82× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-cyber-security-minimal-wear) | 1 in 39 | $51.69 73.84 coins | 8.6% | 125 | 114.8 | 1.09× | | [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-angry-mob-well-worn) | 1 in 38 | $49.76 71.09 coins | 8.6% | 127 | 119.3 | 1.06× | | [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-fairy-tale-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $36.93 52.75 coins | 6.7% | 142 | 126.1 | 1.13× | | [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-turbo-peek-well-worn) | 1 in 29 | $23.72 33.88 coins | 5.4% | 168 | 157.6 | 1.07× | | [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $19.12 27.31 coins | 5.6% | 179 | 202.6 | 0.88× | | [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-imperial-dragon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 21 | $9.03 12.9 coins | 2.8% | 232 | 213.9 | 1.08× | | [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $6.66 9.52 coins | 2.2% | 211 | 229.7 | 0.92× | | [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-wild-child-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $5.97 8.53 coins | 2.1% | 243 | 245.4 | 0.99× | | [Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $5.01 7.15 coins | 2.0% | 285 | 270.2 | 1.05× | | [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Fuel Rod (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-fuel-rod-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $3.39 4.84 coins | 1.5% | 319 | 315.2 | 1.01× | | [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Pulse (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-pulse-field-tested) | 13.7% | $3.08 4.4 coins | 2.7% | 639 | 616.9 | 1.04× | | [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Acid Etched (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-acid-etched-minimal-wear) | 19.0% | $1.75 2.5 coins | 2.2% | 841 | 855.6 | 0.98× | | [Sticker \| paiN Gaming (Holo) \| Paris 2023 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-pain-gaming-holo-paris-2023) | 19.0% | $1.10 1.57 coins | 1.4% | 832 | 855.6 | 0.97× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [I'm the best bird](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/I'm%20the%20best%20bird) $16.94 24.2 coins $4,669 6,670 coins 275.6x 2026-11-09 12:44 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [P21=)](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/P21%3D%29) $16.90 24.15 coins $2,040 2,915 coins 120.7x 2026-11-07 02:14 UTC [★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $16.90 24.15 coins $556 794 coins 32.88x 2026-11-08 11:01 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=kaleidoscope) [StatTrak™ P2000 | Acid Etched (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-acid-etched-minimal-wear) Hidden $16.94 24.2 coins $1.75 2.5 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 17:35 UTC [StatTrak™ P2000 | Acid Etched (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-acid-etched-minimal-wear) Hidden $16.94 24.2 coins $1.75 2.5 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 17:35 UTC [Sticker | paiN Gaming (Holo) | Paris 2023 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-pain-gaming-holo-paris-2023) [Jompen♿](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jompen%E2%99%BF) $16.94 24.2 coins $1.10 1.57 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 17:35 UTC [StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Turbo Peek (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-turbo-peek-well-worn) Hidden $16.94 24.2 coins $23.72 33.88 coins 1.40x 2026-11-11 17:35 UTC [Sticker | paiN Gaming (Holo) | Paris 2023 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-pain-gaming-holo-paris-2023) Hidden $16.94 24.2 coins $1.10 1.57 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 17:35 UTC [StatTrak™ SG 553 | Pulse (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-pulse-field-tested) [Jompen♿](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jompen%E2%99%BF) $16.94 24.2 coins $3.08 4.4 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 17:35 UTC [StatTrak™ P2000 | Acid Etched (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-acid-etched-minimal-wear) Hidden $16.94 24.2 coins $1.75 2.5 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 17:35 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Cyber Security (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-cyber-security-minimal-wear) Hidden $16.94 24.2 coins $51.69 73.84 coins 3.05x 2026-11-11 17:35 UTC [StatTrak™ P2000 | Acid Etched (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-acid-etched-minimal-wear) Hidden $16.94 24.2 coins $1.75 2.5 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 17:25 UTC [StatTrak™ P2000 | Acid Etched (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-acid-etched-minimal-wear) Hidden $16.94 24.2 coins $1.75 2.5 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 17:25 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $16.94 | 90.89% | 23 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $16.81 | 90.90% | 23 | | 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $16.90 | 90.91% | 23 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $16.91 | 90.93% | 23 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 5.3% mil spec 0.5% rare 0.8% classified 23.5% restricted 50.8% exotic 19.0% best hit $4,669 (275.6x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.89 on average: an expected loss of $9.11 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt