---
title: "Karma case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Karma ($27.66) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 16 items with odds, observed 91.82% over 1,089 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/karma
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Karma](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/karma)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Karma

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/karma?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/karma?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/karma) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/karma?window=all)

Price · $27.66 · 39.52 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $25.15 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 91.82% · 1,089 openings, odds method

Variance · 4.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 11.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 75.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 109.27% ±34.04 147 openings

7 days · 95.07% ±14.67 806 openings

30 days · 91.82% ±12.64 1,089 openings

since tracking started · 91.82% ±12.64 1,089 openings

74.5% 109.3% 144.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/karma?window=24h) | 147 | 109.27% ±34.0 | +1.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/karma?window=7d) | 806 | 95.07% ±14.7 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/karma) | 1,089 | 91.82% ±12.6 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/karma?window=all) | 1,089 | 91.82% ±12.6 | +0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,089 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,167 3,095 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Sticker \| BnTeT (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bntet-gold-boston-2018) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,069 1,527 coins | 4.3% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.92× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 256 | $328 468 coins | 5.1% | 5 | 4.2 | 1.18× |
| [Sticker \| AZR (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-azr-gold-boston-2018) | 1 in 33 | $160 229 coins | 19.1% | 39 | 32.7 | 1.19× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 133 | $120 171 coins | 3.6% | 6 | 8.2 | 0.73× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 80 | $115 165 coins | 5.7% | 12 | 13.6 | 0.88× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Pilot (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-pilot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $111 159 coins | 6.6% | 19 | 16.3 | 1.16× |
| [AK-47 \| First Class (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-first-class-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $90.30 129 coins | 14.4% | 42 | 43.6 | 0.96× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $84.00 120 coins | 8.4% | 29 | 27.2 | 1.07× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $60.39 86.27 coins | 12.0% | 43 | 54.5 | 0.79× |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Gamma Doppler (Well-Worn) (Emerald) gloves · extraordinary · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-gamma-doppler-well-worn-emerald) | 1 in 17 | $30.87 44.1 coins | 7.4% | 73 | 65.3 | 1.12× |
| [UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-primal-saber-minimal-wear) | 12.0% | $12.05 17.21 coins | 5.7% | 126 | 130.7 | 0.96× |
| [P90 \| Leather (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-leather-battle-scarred) | 12.0% | $3.50 5 coins | 1.7% | 122 | 130.7 | 0.93× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-battle-scarred) | 18.0% | $3.16 4.51 coins | 2.3% | 194 | 196.0 | 0.99× |
| [UMP-45 \| Indigo (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-indigo-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $2.51 3.59 coins | 1.5% | 176 | 163.3 | 1.08× |
| [P90 \| Virus (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-virus-field-tested) | 18.5% | $2.00 2.86 coins | 1.5% | 202 | 201.5 | 1.00× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Sticker | BnTeT (Gold) | Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bntet-gold-boston-2018) Hidden $27.34 39.06 coins $1,069 1,527 coins 39.09x 2026-11-07 16:16 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=karma)

[P90 | Virus (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-virus-field-tested) Hidden $27.66 39.52 coins $2.00 2.86 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 10:06 UTC

[P90 | Leather (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-leather-battle-scarred) Hidden $27.66 39.52 coins $3.50 5 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 10:06 UTC

[P90 | Leather (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-leather-battle-scarred) Hidden $27.66 39.52 coins $3.50 5 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 10:06 UTC

[AWP | Atheris (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-battle-scarred) [Cousin of po](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Cousin%20of%20po) $27.66 39.52 coins $3.16 4.51 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 10:06 UTC

[AWP | Atheris (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-battle-scarred) Hidden $27.66 39.52 coins $3.16 4.51 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 10:06 UTC

[★ Hydra Gloves | Gamma Doppler (Well-Worn) (Emerald) gloves · extraordinary · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-gamma-doppler-well-worn-emerald) Hidden $27.66 39.52 coins $30.87 44.1 coins 1.12x 2026-11-11 10:06 UTC

[UMP-45 | Indigo (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-indigo-minimal-wear) Hidden $27.66 39.52 coins $2.51 3.59 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 07:25 UTC

[AWP | Atheris (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-battle-scarred) Hidden $27.66 39.52 coins $3.16 4.51 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 07:25 UTC

[P90 | Virus (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-virus-field-tested) Hidden $27.66 39.52 coins $2.00 2.86 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 07:25 UTC

[AK-47 | First Class (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-first-class-field-tested) Hidden $27.66 39.52 coins $90.30 129 coins 3.26x 2026-11-11 07:25 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $27.66 | 90.91% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $27.64 | 90.90% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $27.47 | 90.90% | 16 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $27.34 | 90.90% | 16 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $27.33 | 90.92% | 16 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $27.38 | 90.92% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 2.4% extraordinary 9.1% restricted 24.0% classified 19.5% industrial 12.0% #8847ff 18.0% consumer 15.0% best hit $1,069 (39.09x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt