---
title: "Kawaii case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Kawaii ($16.61) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 18 items with odds, observed 81.29% over 1,333 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/kawaii
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:53Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Kawaii](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/kawaii)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Kawaii

A case on CSGORoll (25%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/kawaii?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/kawaii?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/kawaii) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/kawaii?window=all)

Price · $16.61 · 23.73 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $15.10 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 81.29% · 1,333 openings, odds method

Variance · 4.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 83.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 80.95% ±28.16 214 openings

7 days · 78.37% ±12.04 1,158 openings

30 days · 81.29% ±11.22 1,333 openings

since tracking started · 81.29% ±11.22 1,333 openings

52.0% 81.0% 110.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/kawaii?window=24h) | 214 | 80.95% ±28.2 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/kawaii?window=7d) | 1,158 | 78.37% ±12.0 | −2.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/kawaii) | 1,333 | 81.29% ±11.2 | −1.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/kawaii?window=all) | 1,333 | 81.29% ±11.2 | −1.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,333 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 1,000 | $402 574 coins | 2.7% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.50× |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-minimal-wear) | 1 in 222 | $277 395 coins | 8.2% | 3 | 6.0 | 0.50× |
| [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-battle-scarred) | 1 in 222 | $263 375 coins | 7.8% | 5 | 6.0 | 0.83× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Death by Kitty (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-death-by-kitty-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $169 241 coins | 11.2% | 14 | 13.3 | 1.05× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Temukau (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-temukau-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $67.87 96.95 coins | 6.7% | 19 | 20.0 | 0.95× |
| [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-pink-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $63.55 90.79 coins | 6.3% | 12 | 20.0 | 0.60× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $52.51 75.02 coins | 7.0% | 17 | 26.7 | 0.64× |
| [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $49.06 70.09 coins | 6.5% | 27 | 26.7 | 1.01× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $40.98 58.55 coins | 5.4% | 25 | 26.7 | 0.94× |
| [AWP \| Crakow! (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $34.77 49.67 coins | 4.6% | 21 | 26.7 | 0.79× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-mount-fuji-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $27.53 39.33 coins | 7.3% | 53 | 53.3 | 0.99× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-shinobu-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $15.26 21.8 coins | 4.0% | 44 | 53.3 | 0.83× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Dragon Snore (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-dragon-snore-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $9.04 12.91 coins | 2.4% | 45 | 53.3 | 0.84× |
| [Sticker \| Kawaii T (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kawaii-t-holo) | 15.0% | $6.02 8.6 coins | 6.0% | 208 | 199.9 | 1.04× |
| [Sticker \| Kawaii CT (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kawaii-ct-holo) | 15.0% | $4.67 6.67 coins | 4.6% | 202 | 199.9 | 1.01× |
| [Sticker \| V For Victory (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-v-for-victory-holo) | 15.0% | $4.20 6 coins | 4.2% | 200 | 199.9 | 1.00× |
| [Sealed Graffiti \| Kawaii Killer CT graffiti · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-kawaii-killer-ct) | 15.0% | $3.00 4.29 coins | 3.0% | 223 | 199.9 | 1.12× |
| [Sealed Graffiti \| Kawaii Killer Terrorist graffiti · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-kawaii-killer-terrorist) | 15.0% | $2.07 2.95 coins | 2.1% | 213 | 199.9 | 1.07× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=kawaii)

[Sealed Graffiti | Kawaii Killer Terrorist graffiti · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-kawaii-killer-terrorist) Hidden $16.61 23.73 coins $2.07 2.95 coins 0.12x 2026-11-11 11:34 UTC

[Sealed Graffiti | Kawaii Killer Terrorist graffiti · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-kawaii-killer-terrorist) Hidden $16.61 23.73 coins $2.07 2.95 coins 0.12x 2026-11-11 11:34 UTC

[Sticker | Kawaii CT (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kawaii-ct-holo) Hidden $16.61 23.73 coins $4.67 6.67 coins 0.28x 2026-11-11 11:34 UTC

[Sticker | V For Victory (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-v-for-victory-holo) Hidden $16.61 23.73 coins $4.20 6 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 11:34 UTC

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Shinobu (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-shinobu-minimal-wear) [sirwins.a.not](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/sirwins.a.not) $16.61 23.73 coins $15.26 21.8 coins 0.92x 2026-11-11 11:34 UTC

[Sticker | Kawaii T (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kawaii-t-holo) Hidden $16.61 23.73 coins $6.02 8.6 coins 0.36x 2026-11-11 11:03 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Player Two (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) Hidden $16.61 23.73 coins $52.51 75.02 coins 3.16x 2026-11-11 11:03 UTC

[Zeus x27 | Dragon Snore (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-dragon-snore-field-tested) [MoanTheAmazing](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/MoanTheAmazing) $16.61 23.73 coins $9.04 12.91 coins 0.54x 2026-11-11 11:03 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-minimal-wear) [Lil Purp csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Lil%20Purp%20csgoroll.com) $16.61 23.73 coins $40.98 58.55 coins 2.47x 2026-11-11 11:03 UTC

[Sticker | Kawaii T (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kawaii-t-holo) Hidden $16.61 23.73 coins $6.02 8.6 coins 0.36x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $16.61 | 90.90% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $16.81 | 90.91% | 18 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $16.81 | 90.92% | 18 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 5.5% restricted 5.5% classified 4.0% rare 2.0% uncommon 4.0% #d32ce6 4.0% remarkable 60.0% violet 15.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt