---
title: "Kazlic case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Kazlic ($282.37) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 30 items with odds, observed 91.01% over 282 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/kazlic
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:51Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Kazlic](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/kazlic)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Kazlic

A case on CSGORoll (partners), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/kazlic?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/kazlic?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/kazlic) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/kazlic?window=all)

Price · $282.37 · 403 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $256.70 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 91.01% · 282 openings, odds method

Variance · 6.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 84.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 16 openings · below min

7 days · 94.09% ±35.85 184 openings

30 days · 91.01% ±28.96 282 openings

since tracking started · 91.01% ±28.96 282 openings

-0.5% 100.8% 202.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/kazlic?window=24h) | 16 | 79.55% ±121.6 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/kazlic?window=7d) | 184 | 94.09% ±35.9 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/kazlic) | 282 | 91.01% ±29.0 | +0.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/kazlic?window=all) | 282 | 91.01% ±29.0 | +0.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 282 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Sticker \| iBUYPOWER (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 33,333 | $53.5K 76,380 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $11.9K 17,000 coins | 4.6% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $10.7K 15,300 coins | 1.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100,000 | $8,880 12,685 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Gungnir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 667 | $6,188 8,840 coins | 3.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 3,333 | $5,978 8,540 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $2,716 3,880 coins | 10.6% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.71× |
| [Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) | 1 in 833 | $1,949 2,785 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $1,518 2,169 coins | 7.4% | 0 | 3.5 | 0.00× |
| [Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 111 | $1,295 1,850 coins | 4.5% | 5 | 2.5 | 1.97× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 69 | $1,292 1,845 coins | 7.3% | 5 | 4.1 | 1.22× |
| [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-minimal-wear) | 1 in 77 | $1,047 1,495 coins | 5.3% | 3 | 3.7 | 0.82× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-factory-new) | 1 in 87 | $1,033 1,475 coins | 4.6% | 2 | 3.2 | 0.62× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Printstream (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 61 | $952 1,360 coins | 6.1% | 6 | 4.7 | 1.29× |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $804 1,148 coins | 4.7% | 5 | 4.2 | 1.18× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Arid (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-arid-well-worn) | 1 in 39 | $416 594 coins | 4.1% | 8 | 7.2 | 1.11× |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 38 | $377 539 coins | 3.9% | 11 | 7.5 | 1.47× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 54 | $260 372 coins | 1.9% | 5 | 5.2 | 0.96× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $253 362 coins | 2.0% | 9 | 5.6 | 1.60× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $232 332 coins | 2.0% | 5 | 6.3 | 0.79× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-3) | 1 in 36 | $147 210 coins | 1.6% | 6 | 7.8 | 0.77× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 29 | $120 172 coins | 1.6% | 7 | 9.9 | 0.71× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-battle-scarred) | 1 in 35 | $104 148 coins | 1.2% | 8 | 8.0 | 1.00× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Convoy (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-convoy-well-worn) | 13.2% | $98.00 140 coins | 5.0% | 33 | 37.2 | 0.89× |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-well-worn) | 15.3% | $95.20 136 coins | 5.7% | 36 | 43.0 | 0.84× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $86.80 124 coins | 1.0% | 12 | 8.5 | 1.42× |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $85.40 122 coins | 1.5% | 11 | 12.7 | 0.87× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Finish Line (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-finish-line-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $61.61 88.01 coins | 1.0% | 12 | 11.3 | 1.06× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-battle-scarred) | 15.0% | $57.77 82.53 coins | 3.4% | 46 | 42.3 | 1.09× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Racing Green (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-racing-green-well-worn) | 14.0% | $26.36 37.66 coins | 1.4% | 44 | 39.5 | 1.11× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $288 411 coins $11.9K 17,000 coins 41.32x 2026-11-05 17:43 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $288 411 coins $11.9K 17,000 coins 41.32x 2026-11-03 18:58 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-well-worn) Hidden $288 411 coins $2,804 4,005 coins 9.74x 2026-11-05 18:48 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-well-worn) Hidden $288 411 coins $2,804 4,005 coins 9.74x 2026-11-03 19:00 UTC

[★ Hand Wraps | Slaughter (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $282 403 coins $1,292 1,845 coins 4.57x 2026-11-10 23:31 UTC

[★ Hand Wraps | Slaughter (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $288 411 coins $1,292 1,845 coins 4.48x 2026-11-05 19:28 UTC

[★ Hand Wraps | Slaughter (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $288 411 coins $1,292 1,845 coins 4.48x 2026-11-05 18:55 UTC

[★ Hand Wraps | Slaughter (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $288 411 coins $1,292 1,845 coins 4.48x 2026-11-04 09:42 UTC

[★ Hand Wraps | Slaughter (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $288 411 coins $1,292 1,845 coins 4.48x 2026-11-03 23:53 UTC

[Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) Hidden $288 411 coins $1,273 1,819 coins 4.42x 2026-11-08 00:06 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=kazlic)

[StatTrak™ AWP | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-asiimov-battle-scarred) Hidden $282 403 coins $120 172 coins 0.43x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-3) Hidden $282 403 coins $147 210 coins 0.52x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC

[★ Moto Gloves | Finish Line (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-finish-line-well-worn) Hidden $282 403 coins $61.61 88.01 coins 0.22x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC

[★ Driver Gloves | Convoy (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-convoy-well-worn) [karma](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/karma) $282 403 coins $98.00 140 coins 0.35x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-field-tested) Hidden $282 403 coins $232 332 coins 0.82x 2026-11-10 23:31 UTC

[★ Hand Wraps | Slaughter (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $282 403 coins $1,292 1,845 coins 4.57x 2026-11-10 23:31 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $282 403 coins $804 1,148 coins 2.85x 2026-11-10 23:31 UTC

[★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-racing-green-well-worn) [karma](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/karma) $282 403 coins $26.36 37.66 coins 0.09x 2026-11-10 23:31 UTC

[★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-racing-green-well-worn) Hidden $282 403 coins $26.36 37.66 coins 0.09x 2026-11-10 23:29 UTC

[AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-battle-scarred) Hidden $282 403 coins $85.40 122 coins 0.30x 2026-11-10 23:29 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $282 | 90.91% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $283 | 90.91% | 30 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $288 | 90.91% | 30 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 1.2% covert 57.1% extraordinary 39.1% classified 2.6% best hit $11.9K (41.32x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt