--- title: "Killshot case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Killshot ($72.09) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 10 items with odds, observed 90.00% over 1,703 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/killshot rendered: 2026-11-11T14:33Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Killshot](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/killshot) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Killshot A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/killshot?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/killshot?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/killshot) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/killshot?window=all) Price · $72.09 · 103 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $65.53 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.00% · 1,703 openings, odds method Variance · 0.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 100.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 92.85% ±5.80 282 openings 7 days · 89.98% ±2.37 1,688 openings 30 days · 90.00% ±2.35 1,703 openings since tracking started · 90.00% ±2.35 1,703 openings 86.5% 93.0% 99.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/killshot?window=24h) | 282 | 92.85% ±5.80 | +0.7σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/killshot?window=7d) | 1,688 | 89.98% ±2.37 | −0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/killshot) | 1,703 | 90.00% ±2.35 | −0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/killshot?window=all) | 1,703 | 90.00% ±2.35 | −0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,703 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,100 1,571 coins | 0.8% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [Sticker \| Natus Vincere \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-katowice-2014) | 1 in 667 | $666 951 coins | 1.5% | 1 | 2.6 | 0.39× | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $623 890 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $153 219 coins | 1.2% | 9 | 8.5 | 1.06× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 345 | $138 197 coins | 0.6% | 6 | 4.9 | 1.21× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $110 157 coins | 1.7% | 14 | 17.0 | 0.82× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $109 155 coins | 5.0% | 41 | 51.1 | 0.80× | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers) | 1 in 50 | $88.20 126 coins | 2.7% | 39 | 34.1 | 1.15× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $86.10 123 coins | 3.9% | 58 | 51.1 | 1.14× | | [ESL One Cologne 2014 Challengers other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/esl-one-cologne-2014-challengers) | 90.0% | $60.06 85.8 coins | 82.5% | 1,534 | 1532.7 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-battle-scarred) Hidden $72.09 103 coins $1,100 1,571 coins 15.26x 2026-11-11 07:36 UTC [Sticker | Natus Vincere | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-katowice-2014) Hidden $72.09 103 coins $666 951 coins 9.23x 2026-11-09 21:44 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=killshot) [ESL One Cologne 2014 Challengers other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/esl-one-cologne-2014-challengers) Hidden $72.09 103 coins $60.06 85.8 coins 0.83x 2026-11-11 14:32 UTC [ESL One Cologne 2014 Challengers other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/esl-one-cologne-2014-challengers) Hidden $72.09 103 coins $60.06 85.8 coins 0.83x 2026-11-11 14:32 UTC [ESL One Cologne 2014 Challengers other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/esl-one-cologne-2014-challengers) Hidden $72.09 103 coins $60.06 85.8 coins 0.83x 2026-11-11 14:32 UTC [ESL One Cologne 2014 Challengers other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/esl-one-cologne-2014-challengers) [TheLiarGod](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/TheLiarGod) $72.09 103 coins $60.06 85.8 coins 0.83x 2026-11-11 14:31 UTC [ESL One Cologne 2014 Challengers other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/esl-one-cologne-2014-challengers) Hidden $72.09 103 coins $60.06 85.8 coins 0.83x 2026-11-11 14:27 UTC [ESL One Cologne 2014 Challengers other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/esl-one-cologne-2014-challengers) Hidden $72.09 103 coins $60.06 85.8 coins 0.83x 2026-11-11 14:25 UTC [ESL One Cologne 2014 Challengers other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/esl-one-cologne-2014-challengers) Hidden $72.09 103 coins $60.06 85.8 coins 0.83x 2026-11-11 14:25 UTC [ESL One Cologne 2014 Challengers other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/esl-one-cologne-2014-challengers) Hidden $72.09 103 coins $60.06 85.8 coins 0.83x 2026-11-11 14:24 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $72.09 103 coins $109 155 coins 1.51x 2026-11-11 14:23 UTC [ESL One Cologne 2014 Challengers other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/esl-one-cologne-2014-challengers) [TheLiarGod](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/TheLiarGod) $72.09 103 coins $60.06 85.8 coins 0.83x 2026-11-11 14:22 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $72.09 | 90.91% | 10 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $75.41 | 90.91% | 10 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $75.67 | 90.91% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.1% high 0.1% covert 9.8% base 90.0% best hit $1,100 (15.26x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt