---
title: "King of the Sea case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "King of the Sea ($41.75) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 14 items with odds, observed 91.76% over 1,047 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/king-of-the-sea
rendered: 2026-11-13T03:02Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [King of the Sea](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/king-of-the-sea)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · King of the Sea

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/king-of-the-sea?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/king-of-the-sea?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/king-of-the-sea) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/king-of-the-sea?window=all)

Price · $41.75 · 59.65 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $37.96 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 91.76% · 1,047 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 23.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 54.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 82.69% ±17.95 117 openings

7 days · 94.43% ±7.56 665 openings

30 days · 91.76% ±6.04 1,047 openings

since tracking started · 91.76% ±6.04 1,047 openings

64.0% 83.3% 102.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/king-of-the-sea?window=24h) | 117 | 82.69% ±18.0 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/king-of-the-sea?window=7d) | 665 | 94.43% ±7.56 | +0.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/king-of-the-sea) | 1,047 | 91.76% ±6.04 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/king-of-the-sea?window=all) | 1,047 | 91.76% ±6.04 | +0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,047 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,241 1,773 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $431 616 coins | 2.8% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.76× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-blue-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $329 470 coins | 4.3% | 4 | 5.2 | 0.76× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91 | $118 168 coins | 3.4% | 17 | 11.5 | 1.48× |
| [Sawed-Off \| The Kraken (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-the-kraken-factory-new) | 10.0% | $79.80 114 coins | 21.0% | 89 | 104.7 | 0.85× |
| [Sawed-Off \| The Kraken (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-the-kraken-minimal-wear) | 12.0% | $62.50 89.29 coins | 19.8% | 143 | 125.6 | 1.14× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-blue-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 27 | $56.69 80.98 coins | 5.4% | 44 | 38.1 | 1.15× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $52.35 74.78 coins | 11.0% | 75 | 83.8 | 0.90× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-well-worn) | 10.0% | $51.30 73.29 coins | 13.5% | 123 | 104.7 | 1.17× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $29.14 41.63 coins | 6.1% | 86 | 83.8 | 1.03× |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-battle-scarred) | 11.0% | $18.54 26.48 coins | 5.4% | 118 | 115.2 | 1.02× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $14.66 20.94 coins | 3.9% | 92 | 104.7 | 0.88× |
| [SSG 08 \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 12.6% | $7.78 11.12 coins | 2.6% | 135 | 131.9 | 1.02× |
| [Negev \| Lionfish (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-lionfish-factory-new) | 12.9% | $1.09 1.55 coins | 0.4% | 119 | 135.1 | 0.88× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 13 Nov, 02:20 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=king-of-the-sea)

[Sawed-Off | The Kraken (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-the-kraken-factory-new) [I'm the best bird](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/I'm%20the%20best%20bird) $41.75 59.65 coins $79.80 114 coins 1.91x 2026-11-13 02:57 UTC

[AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-battle-scarred) Hidden $41.75 59.65 coins $29.14 41.63 coins 0.70x 2026-11-13 02:57 UTC

[M4A4 | The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) Hidden $41.75 59.65 coins $52.35 74.78 coins 1.25x 2026-11-13 02:57 UTC

[SSG 08 | Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dark-water-minimal-wear) Hidden $41.75 59.65 coins $7.78 11.12 coins 0.19x 2026-11-13 02:57 UTC

[Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-battle-scarred) Hidden $41.75 59.65 coins $18.54 26.48 coins 0.44x 2026-11-13 02:57 UTC

[Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-battle-scarred) Hidden $41.75 59.65 coins $18.54 26.48 coins 0.44x 2026-11-13 02:57 UTC

[Negev | Lionfish (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-lionfish-factory-new) Hidden $41.75 59.65 coins $1.09 1.55 coins 0.03x 2026-11-13 00:35 UTC

[Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-battle-scarred) Hidden $41.75 59.65 coins $18.54 26.48 coins 0.44x 2026-11-13 00:35 UTC

[Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-battle-scarred) [mr.pit](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/mr.pit) $41.75 59.65 coins $18.54 26.48 coins 0.44x 2026-11-13 00:30 UTC

[Sawed-Off | The Kraken (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-the-kraken-minimal-wear) Hidden $41.75 59.65 coins $62.50 89.29 coins 1.50x 2026-11-13 00:29 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 12 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $41.75 | 90.91% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $41.76 | 90.91% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $42.21 | 90.91% | 14 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $42.27 | 90.92% | 14 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $42.27 | 90.90% | 14 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 10.0% covert 53.5% pink 11.0% mil spec 12.6% restricted 12.9% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt