---
title: "Kintsugi case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Kintsugi ($26.85) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 15 items with odds, observed 73.55% over 1,812 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/kintsugi
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:13Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Kintsugi](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/kintsugi)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Kintsugi

A case on CSGORoll (5%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/kintsugi?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/kintsugi?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/kintsugi) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/kintsugi?window=all)

Price · $26.85 · 38.36 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $24.41 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 73.55% · 1,812 openings, odds method

Variance · 37.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 125 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 210 openings · below min

7 days · 80.06% ±32.12 1,384 openings

30 days · 73.55% ±28.09 1,812 openings

since tracking started · 73.55% ±28.09 1,812 openings

-0.5% 73.8% 148.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/kintsugi?window=24h) | 210 | 65.29% ±82.3 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/kintsugi?window=7d) | 1,384 | 80.06% ±32.1 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/kintsugi) | 1,812 | 73.55% ±28.1 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/kintsugi?window=all) | 1,812 | 73.55% ±28.1 | −1.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,812 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 667 | $2,716 3,880 coins | 16.7% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.10× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $1,761 2,515 coins | 18.0% | 2 | 4.5 | 0.44× |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,655 2,364 coins | 6.8% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · legendary · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 333 | $1,271 1,816 coins | 15.6% | 3 | 5.4 | 0.55× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-3) | 1 in 250 | $377 539 coins | 6.2% | 9 | 7.2 | 1.24× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $188 269 coins | 3.9% | 11 | 9.1 | 1.21× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-polygon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 111 | $70.70 101 coins | 2.6% | 24 | 16.3 | 1.47× |
| [Sticker \| Fnatic (Holo) \| Atlanta 2017 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fnatic-holo-atlanta-2017) | 1 in 100 | $45.92 65.6 coins | 1.9% | 11 | 18.1 | 0.61× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-well-worn) | 1 in 71 | $35.82 51.17 coins | 2.1% | 23 | 25.4 | 0.91× |
| [Galil AR \| Blue Titanium (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-blue-titanium-factory-new) | 23.0% | $13.49 19.27 coins | 12.7% | 424 | 416.8 | 1.02× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $11.32 16.17 coins | 3.2% | 135 | 126.8 | 1.06× |
| [XM1014 \| VariCamo Blue (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-varicamo-blue-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $8.27 11.82 coins | 1.0% | 63 | 54.4 | 1.16× |
| [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-battle-scarred) | 14.0% | $6.17 8.81 coins | 3.5% | 242 | 253.7 | 0.95× |
| [MAG-7 \| Justice (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-battle-scarred) | 19.0% | $4.77 6.82 coins | 3.7% | 339 | 344.3 | 0.98× |
| [MP5-SD \| Co-Processor (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-co-processor-factory-new) | 29.0% | $1.75 2.5 coins | 2.1% | 523 | 525.5 | 1.00× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) Hidden $26.87 38.39 coins $2,762 3,945 coins 102.8x 2026-11-08 11:30 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) Hidden $26.86 38.37 coins $2,716 3,880 coins 101.1x 2026-11-09 13:55 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) [Shiba inu](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Shiba%20inu) $26.86 38.37 coins $2,716 3,880 coins 101.1x 2026-11-09 12:49 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-factory-new) Hidden $26.85 38.36 coins $1,761 2,515 coins 65.56x 2026-11-10 16:53 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-factory-new) [Normyyyy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Normyyyy) $26.89 38.41 coins $1,721 2,459 coins 64.02x 2026-11-05 23:08 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · legendary · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) Hidden $26.85 38.36 coins $1,271 1,816 coins 47.34x 2026-11-09 21:01 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · legendary · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) Hidden $26.86 38.37 coins $1,271 1,816 coins 47.33x 2026-11-09 15:11 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · legendary · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) Hidden $26.89 38.41 coins $1,271 1,816 coins 47.28x 2026-11-03 20:40 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=kintsugi)

[StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-battle-scarred) Hidden $26.85 38.36 coins $6.17 8.81 coins 0.23x 2026-11-11 09:49 UTC

[StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-battle-scarred) Hidden $26.85 38.36 coins $6.17 8.81 coins 0.23x 2026-11-11 09:49 UTC

[MAG-7 | Justice (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-battle-scarred) [Vaulty](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Vaulty) $26.85 38.36 coins $4.77 6.82 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 09:49 UTC

[Galil AR | Blue Titanium (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-blue-titanium-factory-new) Hidden $26.85 38.36 coins $13.49 19.27 coins 0.50x 2026-11-11 09:49 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Monkey Business (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-field-tested) Hidden $26.85 38.36 coins $11.32 16.17 coins 0.42x 2026-11-11 09:49 UTC

[Galil AR | Blue Titanium (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-blue-titanium-factory-new) Hidden $26.85 38.36 coins $13.49 19.27 coins 0.50x 2026-11-11 09:49 UTC

[StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-battle-scarred) Hidden $26.85 38.36 coins $6.17 8.81 coins 0.23x 2026-11-11 05:59 UTC

[MAG-7 | Justice (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-battle-scarred) Hidden $26.85 38.36 coins $4.77 6.82 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 05:59 UTC

[StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-battle-scarred) [Spud](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Spud) $26.85 38.36 coins $6.17 8.81 coins 0.23x 2026-11-11 05:59 UTC

[StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-battle-scarred) [BasHtricK](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/BasHtricK) $26.85 38.36 coins $6.17 8.81 coins 0.23x 2026-11-11 05:59 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $26.85 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $26.86 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $26.77 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 6 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $26.87 | 90.92% | 15 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $26.89 | 90.90% | 15 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $26.78 | 90.91% | 15 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 2.8% legendary 0.3% extraordinary 0.9% remarkable 1.0% mil spec 55.0% classified 40.0% best hit $2,762 (102.8x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt