--- title: "Knives Only case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Knives Only ($173.64) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 7 items with odds, observed 139.79% over 12 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/knives-only rendered: 2026-11-11T16:02Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Knives Only](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/knives-only) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Knives Only A case on CSGORoll (knives), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/knives-only?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/knives-only?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/knives-only) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/knives-only?window=all) Price · $173.64 · 248 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $157.85 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 139.79% · 12 openings, odds method Variance · 0.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 41.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 59.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 8 openings · below min 30 days · 12 openings · below min since tracking started · 12 openings · below min 90.5% 157.8% 225.0% **Small sample.** 12 openings and 4.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/knives-only?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/knives-only?window=7d) | 8 | 171.72% ±52.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/knives-only) | 12 | 139.79% ±43.1 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/knives-only?window=all) | 12 | 139.79% ±43.1 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,119 1,598 coins | 7.1% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 10.0% | $323 461 coins | 20.4% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.67× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $235 336 coins | 7.5% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 25.0% | $218 311 coins | 34.5% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.00× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $168 240 coins | 5.3% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 20.0% | $139 198 coins | 17.6% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.25× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Night Stripe (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-night-stripe-well-worn) | 34.0% | $35.56 50.8 coins | 7.7% | 3 | 4.1 | 0.74× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) [LongKoala](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/LongKoala) $179 256 coins $1,134 1,620 coins 6.34x 2026-11-06 05:49 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=knives-only) [★ Ursus Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $179 256 coins $144 205 coins 0.80x 2026-11-06 05:49 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) [LongKoala](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/LongKoala) $179 256 coins $1,134 1,620 coins 6.34x 2026-11-06 05:49 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $179 256 coins $225 322 coins 1.26x 2026-11-04 17:13 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Night Stripe (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-night-stripe-well-worn) Hidden $179 256 coins $38.63 55.19 coins 0.22x 2026-11-04 17:13 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $179 256 coins $225 322 coins 1.26x 2026-11-04 17:13 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) Hidden $179 256 coins $323 461 coins 1.80x 2026-11-04 17:13 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $179 256 coins $144 205 coins 0.80x 2026-11-04 17:13 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) [Xucupita✟](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Xucupita%E2%9C%9F) $179 256 coins $225 322 coins 1.26x 2026-11-04 17:13 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $174 | 90.91% | 7 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $175 | 90.91% | 7 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $179 | 90.91% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed epic 1.0% covert 74.0% rare 25.0% best hit $1,134 (6.34x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt