--- title: "Kwazy case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Kwazy ($200.05) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 13 items with odds, observed 99.74% over 1,312 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/kwazy rendered: 2026-11-11T13:51Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Kwazy](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/kwazy) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Kwazy A case on CSGORoll (partners, 20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/kwazy?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/kwazy?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/kwazy) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/kwazy?window=all) Price · $200.05 · 286 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $181.86 from 13 items Observed RTP, 30d · 99.74% · 1,312 openings, odds method Variance · 42.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 32 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 95 openings · below min 7 days · 100.97% ±46.71 738 openings 30 days · 99.74% ±35.02 1,312 openings since tracking started · 99.74% ±35.02 1,312 openings -0.5% 118.8% 238.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/kwazy?window=24h) | 95 | 107.25% ±130.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/kwazy?window=7d) | 738 | 100.97% ±46.7 | +0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/kwazy) | 1,312 | 99.74% ±35.0 | +0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/kwazy?window=all) | 1,312 | 99.74% ±35.0 | +0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,312 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Reason Gaming (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 1,000 | $38K 54,245 coins | 20.9% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.52× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 667 | $6,790 9,700 coins | 5.6% | 0 | 2.0 | 0.00× | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $6,542 9,345 coins | 7.2% | 4 | 2.6 | 1.52× | | [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) | 1 in 1,000 | $6,335 9,050 coins | 3.5% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.76× | | [Glock-18 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 56 | $1,142 1,631 coins | 11.3% | 26 | 23.6 | 1.10× | | [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $995 1,421 coins | 4.4% | 17 | 10.5 | 1.62× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 67 | $617 882 coins | 5.1% | 13 | 19.7 | 0.66× | | [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-well-worn) | 10.2% | $540 772 coins | 30.2% | 134 | 133.2 | 1.01× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $445 636 coins | 4.9% | 22 | 26.2 | 0.84× | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 83 | $427 610 coins | 2.8% | 18 | 15.7 | 1.14× | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $382 545 coins | 4.2% | 22 | 26.2 | 0.84× | | [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 40.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 526 | 524.8 | 1.00× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 40.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 527 | 524.8 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Sticker | Reason Gaming (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $201 287 coins $38K 54,245 coins 189.1x 2026-11-07 23:45 UTC [Sticker | Reason Gaming (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $201 287 coins $38K 54,245 coins 189.1x 2026-11-03 23:42 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $201 287 coins $6,727 9,610 coins 33.50x 2026-11-07 14:08 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $201 287 coins $6,727 9,610 coins 33.50x 2026-11-07 13:48 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $201 287 coins $6,727 9,610 coins 33.50x 2026-11-07 13:35 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $200 286 coins $6,542 9,345 coins 32.70x 2026-11-11 01:07 UTC [★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) Hidden $201 287 coins $6,514 9,305 coins 32.44x 2026-11-04 03:22 UTC [Glock-18 | Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-minimal-wear) [Kickerrrrrrrr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kickerrrrrrrr) $200 286 coins $1,142 1,631 coins 5.71x 2026-11-11 11:46 UTC [Glock-18 | Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-minimal-wear) [Zoid](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Zoid) $200 286 coins $1,142 1,631 coins 5.71x 2026-11-11 01:11 UTC [Glock-18 | Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $200 286 coins $1,142 1,631 coins 5.71x 2026-11-11 01:09 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=kwazy) [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $200 286 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:46 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $200 286 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:46 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $200 286 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:46 UTC [Glock-18 | Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-minimal-wear) [Kickerrrrrrrr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kickerrrrrrrr) $200 286 coins $1,142 1,631 coins 5.71x 2026-11-11 11:46 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $200 286 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:18 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $200 286 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:18 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $200 286 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:18 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) [Kickerrrrrrrr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kickerrrrrrrr) $200 286 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:18 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $200 286 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:54 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $200 286 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:54 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $200 | 90.91% | 13 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $201 | 90.91% | 13 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed remarkable 0.1% covert 14.9% restricted 1.8% epic 2.0% legendary 1.2% consumer 80.0% best hit $38K (189.1x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt