--- title: "Lady Luck case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Lady Luck ($335.05) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 17 items with odds, observed 71.53% over 22 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lady-luck rendered: 2026-11-11T13:51Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Lady Luck](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lady-luck) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Lady Luck A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lady-luck?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lady-luck?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lady-luck) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lady-luck?window=all) Price · $335.05 · 479 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $304.59 from 17 items Observed RTP, 30d · 71.53% · 22 openings, odds method Variance · 3.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 15.3% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 72.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 18 openings · below min 30 days · 22 openings · below min since tracking started · 22 openings · below min -0.5% 81.5% 163.5% **Small sample.** 22 openings and 3.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lady-luck?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lady-luck?window=7d) | 18 | 79.04% ±84.0 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lady-luck) | 22 | 71.53% ±75.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lady-luck?window=all) | 22 | 71.53% ±75.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 22 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) | 1 in 200 | $7,252 10,360 coins | 11.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 1,000 | $6,888 9,840 coins | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $1,301 1,859 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $1,114 1,591 coins | 18.3% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.82× | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $1,063 1,518 coins | 3.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $751 1,073 coins | 6.2% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [Sticker \| HEN1 (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hen1-gold-boston-2018) | 1 in 17 | $658 940 coins | 13.0% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× | | [ESL One Katowice 2015 Challengers (Holo-Foil) other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/esl-one-katowice-2015-challengers-holo-foil) | 12.0% | $365 522 coins | 14.4% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.14× | | [Sticker \| Edward (Gold) \| Krakow 2017 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-edward-gold-krakow-2017) | 1 in 17 | $321 459 coins | 6.3% | 3 | 1.3 | 2.27× | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $274 391 coins | 3.6% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [Sticker \| Xyp9x (Gold) \| Krakow 2017 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-xyp9x-gold-krakow-2017) | 12.7% | $250 357 coins | 10.4% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.72× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 33 | $228 326 coins | 2.2% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $139 199 coins | 3.2% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.65× | | [P250 \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-whiteout-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $51.53 73.61 coins | 1.7% | 3 | 2.2 | 1.36× | | [USP-S \| Road Rash (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $46.92 67.03 coins | 1.5% | 3 | 2.2 | 1.36× | | [M4A1-S \| Moss Quartz (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-moss-quartz-well-worn) | 10.0% | $15.52 22.17 coins | 0.5% | 3 | 2.2 | 1.36× | | [Souvenir Dual Berettas \| Contractor (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-dual-berettas-contractor-factory-new) | 10.0% | $4.70 6.72 coins | 0.2% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.91× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $335 479 coins $1,114 1,591 coins 3.32x 2026-11-09 12:55 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $335 479 coins $1,114 1,591 coins 3.32x 2026-11-09 12:49 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=lady-luck) [P250 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-whiteout-minimal-wear) Hidden $335 479 coins $51.53 73.61 coins 0.15x 2026-11-09 12:55 UTC [M4A1-S | Moss Quartz (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-moss-quartz-well-worn) Hidden $335 479 coins $15.52 22.17 coins 0.05x 2026-11-09 12:55 UTC [M4A1-S | Moss Quartz (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-moss-quartz-well-worn) Hidden $335 479 coins $15.52 22.17 coins 0.05x 2026-11-09 12:55 UTC [ESL One Katowice 2015 Challengers (Holo-Foil) other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/esl-one-katowice-2015-challengers-holo-foil) Hidden $335 479 coins $365 522 coins 1.09x 2026-11-09 12:55 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $335 479 coins $1,114 1,591 coins 3.32x 2026-11-09 12:55 UTC [Sticker | Xyp9x (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-xyp9x-gold-krakow-2017) [I AM THE PIRATE KING](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/I%20AM%20THE%20PIRATE%20KING) $335 479 coins $250 357 coins 0.75x 2026-11-09 12:55 UTC [Souvenir Dual Berettas | Contractor (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-dual-berettas-contractor-factory-new) Hidden $335 479 coins $4.70 6.72 coins 0.01x 2026-11-09 12:55 UTC [ESL One Katowice 2015 Challengers (Holo-Foil) other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/esl-one-katowice-2015-challengers-holo-foil) Hidden $335 479 coins $365 522 coins 1.09x 2026-11-09 12:55 UTC [M4A1-S | Moss Quartz (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-moss-quartz-well-worn) Hidden $335 479 coins $15.52 22.17 coins 0.05x 2026-11-09 12:55 UTC [P250 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-whiteout-minimal-wear) Hidden $335 479 coins $51.53 73.61 coins 0.15x 2026-11-09 12:55 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $335 | 90.91% | 17 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $335 | 90.91% | 17 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $337 | 90.91% | 17 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 18.3% classified 5.0% extraordinary 24.7% base 12.0% mil spec 10.0% restricted 10.0% industrial 10.0% consumer 10.0% best hit $1,114 (3.32x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt