--- title: "Lag case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Lag ($53.13) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 18 items with odds, observed 101.61% over 284 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lag rendered: 2026-11-11T14:42Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Lag](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lag) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Lag A case on CSGORoll (40%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lag?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lag?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lag) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lag?window=all) Price · $53.13 · 75.9 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $48.30 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 101.61% · 284 openings, odds method Variance · 2.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 11.3% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 71.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 12 openings · below min 7 days · 103.55% ±19.20 264 openings 30 days · 101.61% ±18.51 284 openings since tracking started · 101.61% ±18.51 284 openings -0.5% 61.5% 123.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lag?window=24h) | 12 | 18.37% ±90.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lag?window=7d) | 264 | 103.55% ±19.2 | +1.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lag) | 284 | 101.61% ±18.5 | +1.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/lag?window=all) | 284 | 101.61% ±18.5 | +1.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 284 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-minimal-wear) | 1 in 222 | $723 1,033 coins | 6.7% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.78× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $501 716 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 286 | $465 664 coins | 3.4% | 4 | 1.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $398 568 coins | 8.2% | 4 | 2.8 | 1.41× | | [AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-factory-new) | 1 in 83 | $295 421 coins | 7.3% | 5 | 3.4 | 1.47× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 222 | $207 295 coins | 1.9% | 3 | 1.3 | 2.35× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) | 1 in 200 | $167 239 coins | 1.7% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× | | [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $162 232 coins | 12.6% | 6 | 10.7 | 0.56× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $129 184 coins | 4.0% | 6 | 4.3 | 1.41× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $127 181 coins | 5.2% | 3 | 5.7 | 0.53× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $110 157 coins | 8.6% | 10 | 10.8 | 0.93× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $102 145 coins | 9.5% | 13 | 12.8 | 1.02× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 11 | $65.53 93.61 coins | 12.8% | 34 | 26.7 | 1.27× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $50.11 71.59 coins | 6.2% | 20 | 17.0 | 1.17× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $49.83 71.18 coins | 5.2% | 11 | 14.2 | 0.77× | | [AK-47 \| Slate (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $6.56 9.37 coins | 2.7% | 65 | 56.8 | 1.14× | | [Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $3.70 5.29 coins | 1.5% | 47 | 56.8 | 0.83× | | [Sticker \| Candy Buttery (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-candy-buttery-holo) | 20.0% | $3.14 4.49 coins | 1.3% | 52 | 56.8 | 0.92× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-minimal-wear) [Stigerud](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Stigerud) $53.62 76.6 coins $750 1,071 coins 13.98x 2026-11-04 21:49 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=lag) [Tec-9 | Remote Control (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-minimal-wear) Hidden $53.13 75.9 coins $3.70 5.29 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 09:39 UTC [AK-47 | Slate (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-minimal-wear) Hidden $53.13 75.9 coins $6.56 9.37 coins 0.12x 2026-11-11 09:39 UTC [Tec-9 | Remote Control (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-minimal-wear) Hidden $53.13 75.9 coins $3.70 5.29 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 09:39 UTC [AK-47 | Slate (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-minimal-wear) Hidden $53.13 75.9 coins $6.56 9.37 coins 0.12x 2026-11-11 09:39 UTC [AK-47 | Slate (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-minimal-wear) [☯♥㊛](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%E2%98%AF%E2%99%A5%E3%8A%9B) $53.13 75.9 coins $6.56 9.37 coins 0.12x 2026-11-11 09:39 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-crimson-web-well-worn) Hidden $53.13 75.9 coins $65.53 93.61 coins 1.23x 2026-11-11 09:39 UTC [Tec-9 | Remote Control (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-minimal-wear) Hidden $53.13 75.9 coins $3.70 5.29 coins 0.07x 2026-11-10 18:43 UTC [AK-47 | Slate (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-minimal-wear) Hidden $53.13 75.9 coins $6.56 9.37 coins 0.12x 2026-11-10 18:43 UTC [Sticker | Candy Buttery (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-candy-buttery-holo) Hidden $53.13 75.9 coins $3.14 4.49 coins 0.06x 2026-11-10 18:43 UTC [Tec-9 | Remote Control (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-minimal-wear) Hidden $53.13 75.9 coins $3.70 5.29 coins 0.07x 2026-11-10 18:43 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $53.13 | 90.91% | 18 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $53.26 | 90.91% | 18 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $53.62 | 90.91% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.4% covert 39.2% classified 20.4% restricted 20.0% remarkable 20.0% best hit $750 (13.98x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt